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When Things Start to Think

EnlightenmentFan writes "In When Things Start to Think, MIT Media Lab whiz Neil Gershenfeld predicts an appealing future of seamless, foolproof computers. User alert: Relentless optimism ahead. (I am ready to let MIT graft smart chips into my skin some day after my PC goes a week without crashing.) This is the book to buy for your folks to get them excited about nerds. It does also have some interesting stuff for nerds themselves." Read on for Enlightenment Fan's review. When Things Start to Think author Neil Gershenfeld pages 225 publisher Owl Books (paperback) rating For Slashdotters: 5 to read, 9 to give your folks reviewer EnlightenmentFan ISBN 080505880X summary Seamless, foolproof mini-computers coming up.

One underlying theme dear to Gershenfeld's heart is the death of traditional academic distinctions between physics and engineering, or between academia and commerce. Applied research is real research.

Another major theme is that older technologies should be treated with respect as we seek to supplement or replace them. For example, a laptop's display is much harder to read in most light than the paper in a book.

The book starts by drawing a contrast between Digital Revolution and Digital Evolution. Digital Revolution is the already-tired metaphor for universal connectivity to infinite information and memory via personal computers, the Internet, etc. Digital Evolution describes a more democratic future, from Gershenfeld's point of view, when computers are so smart, cheap, and ubiquitous that they do many ordinary chores to help ordinary people. When things talk to things, human beings are set free to do work they find more appealing.

"What are things that think?" asks the first section of the book.

Gershenfeld's whizbang examples won't be big news to Slashdot readers. My favorite, the Personal Fabricator, ("a printer that outputs working things instead of static objects")-- whose relationship to a full machine shop analog is like that of the Personal Computer to the old-fashioned mainframe. Gershenfeld actually has one of these in his lab (it outputs plastic doohickeys)--seeing it was one of the high points of my visit there.

"Why should things think?" asks the second section.

My favorite here is the Bill of Rights for machine users. (In true Baby-Boom style, it's of list of wants arbitrarily declared to be rights.) "You have the right to

  • Have information available when you want it, where you want it, and in the form you want it

    Be protected from sending or receiving information that you don't want

    Use technology without attending to its needs"

Under the heading "Bad Words," Gershenfeld offers a snide but useful summary of many high-tech pop-sci buzzwords, showing how they get misused by people who don't understand their real content or context.

"How will things that think be developed?"

By making them small and cheap. By getting industry to pay the bills for targeted, practical research, using the Media Lab model TTT ("Things That Think.") By reorganizing education on the model of the Media Lab, where students learn things as they need them for practical projects, not all at once in a huge, abstract lump.

The book concludes with directions to various websites, including the Physics and Media Group (One of their projects these days is "Intrabody Signaling.") Slashdotters might also be interested in Gershenfeld's textbooks The Nature of Mathematical Modeling and The Physics of Information Technology.

You can purchase When Things Start To Think from bn.com, and Amazon has the book paperback discounted to $11.20. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.

34 of 187 comments (clear)

  1. Are we even remotely close? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I mean, come'on. We have pattern recognition, and bots that have huge libraries of information. We aren't anywhere near true AI, and won't be for several decades, unless some huge breakthrough occurs in learning algorithms.

  2. One of Todays Big Blunders by leodegan · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think we are going to look back a hundered years from now and say how silly we were to ever believe computers could think like we do.

    How is a computer program ever going to adopt abstract thinking and creativity? Is a computer program ever going to invent mathematics without previous knowledge of it just because it finds it to be a useful utility for solving problems?

    Heck, if someone could write a decent language translation program I might think there is a hope.

    1. Re:One of Todays Big Blunders by BruceSpringsteen · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well, here's the rub. It can only work out two ways, both of which the average slashdot user will find vaguely unsettling... Either:

      A) Computers can never think like we do. Well, if not, why not? There's no reason why you couldn't simulate the actions of neurons with sufficient numbers of transistors. If computers can never think like we do, it's either because they can't because we're insufficiently intelligent to recreate the human brain (unsettling) or, for intelligent thought, maybe you need something like a soul. (unsettling to the average slashdot athiest)

      B) Computers can think like we do. Isn't that unsettling enough as it is? Free will might as well not be real, since it can be simulated. So how do you know that you actually have it, and not a simulacrum?

      Really, there's no way that this can work out comfortably.

    2. Re:One of Todays Big Blunders by ajs · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Will computers ever think like we do?

      I hope not.

      Will computers ever out-think humans?

      Almost certainly.

      How soon?

      That depends on your metrics. When you speak of abstract throught, you're automatically applying a set of logical "filters" that have to do with evaluating the intellegence of humans whith whom you interact and "opponents" with whom you must contend. In many ways, many machines already out-think humans in creative ways, but they are savants for the most part, only capable of thinking in narrowly pre-determined areas. We are constrained this way too. We cannot think four-dimensionally, for example. But, we do not consider that to be a major limitation. Perhaps someone who could think four-dimensionally would think of a human mind as "unintelligent".

      Bottom-line: machines keep getting smarter, but the problem of CONVINCING A HUMAN that you are smart means having some sort of survival and/or communication skills. Those problems are probably still 5-20 years off and involve massive learning simulations that will take years to evolve a suitable program. In the end, we'll probably be able to cut down on the time it took nature to create a human brain by a factor of several million, and improve on it substantially (removing a lot of the archaic reflexive responses, and replacing them with the ability to work in very large groups without breaking down, etc).

    3. Re:One of Todays Big Blunders by Scarblac · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Is a computer ever going to invent mathematics without previous knowledge of it just because it find it to be a useful utility for solving problems?

      No, we'll tell it about math. Note that I didn't think of math by myself, nor did you. It took humanity thousands of years to invent and perfect it , with millions of people using the state of the art of their time because that's what they were taught to do.

      It's conceivable that an AI could figure out some things like this from scratch, but in practice we won't do that (since we can teach it math, or hard code it). It's enough if it can sometimes think of some new method to solve a problem to be considered as intelligent as us, in my opinion.

      Your comment is like "how can a computer ever print a text? Is it going to invent writing, and an alphabet by itself?" :-). We're "allowed" to teach it the same things we teach our kids, and hardwire stuff that needs to be hardwired (like a lot of things are hardwired in our brain, vision, language structure, etc).

      And as for language translation, in my personal opinion, you need general AI before you can have human-language understanding, and you need that for translation.

      --
      I believe posters are recognized by their sig. So I made one.
    4. Re:One of Todays Big Blunders by monadicIO · · Score: 3, Informative
      Heck, if someone could write a decent language translation program I might think there is a hope

      One website for you. babelfish.altavista.com. While it might goof up occasionally, it generally translates well enough for me to get a good idea of the contents. Also, computers *have* been getting better at turing tests (though only for limited domain interactions). I see no reason that computers cannot recreate some "abstract" (or atleast seemingly so) patterns. Hell, if a computer can play chess, thats abstract enough "thinking" for me.

      --

      The law of excluded middle : Either I'm foo or I'm foobar

    5. Re:One of Todays Big Blunders by limekiller4 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I think that what appears to be overly complex and, if you'd like to call it this, "subtle," is really nothing more than the illusion of complexity. Let me explain...

      Take a game of Go (aka, Baduk). You have a 19x19 grid. One player gets white stones, the other gets black. The players alternate playing stones on the intersections of the board (not in the boxes). This very, VERY simple setup leads to amazingly complex results such that no existing Go program can even come close to challenging a mid-level player much less a master.

      The point I'm trying to make is that extremely simple beginnings can lead to extremely complex behavior. Just because we seem complex does not mean that we are more than just a lot of very simple bits working together, in other words. I'm with Kurzweil in the sense that the brain is nothing more than matter operating under physical constraints. Mimic the parts and understand the constraints and you have, for all intent and purpose, a brain. And by extension a thinking thing.

      The question then becomes "have we captured the bits that matter?" ie, is there a soul?

      I'm an atheist. I'm not the guy you want to answer this question. And I'll refrain from touching on Wolfram's A New Kind of Science at this point... =)

      --
      My .02,
      Limekiller
    6. Re:One of Todays Big Blunders by guidobot · · Score: 3, Insightful
      How is a computer program ever going to adopt abstract thinking and creativity?

      How do people do it? Until we can answer that question, you certainly can't rule out that computers can achieve the same.

      Is a computer program ever going to invent mathematics without previous knowledge of it just because it finds it to be a useful utility for solving problems?

      Yes. Herb Simon (a nobel prize/turing award winning professor) always gave the example of BACON, a program that discovered Kepler's 3rd Law of Planetary Motion. Not bad. He always believed computers can and will think, and I agree with him.

    7. Re:One of Todays Big Blunders by Soko · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Nice post, but you assume that any human is capable of basic intelligent thought.

      IME, many are not. This might lead one to the thought that maybe our machines are nearer to our intelligence level than we think. ;^)

      Soko

      --
      "Depression is merely anger without enthusiasm." - Anonymous
    8. Re:One of Todays Big Blunders by leodegan · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If you knew your biology well enough, you would realize that people are nothing more than a series of extremly complex chemical reactions set into motion by enzymes, unless by some chance we all have a "soul". This can and will be modeled by software someday.
      It is naïve for you to suggest that this is understood with certainty. We are a long ways away from decoding the brain, and there are many theories that imply that the brain is actually a magnifier for quantum processes. For example, it is believed that the microtubules in the neuron's cell structure may be chambers that can amplify quantum processes to the point that they impact macroscopic processes in the brain. If this turns out to be the case, then we may never be able to decode the brain. For the past century physics has hit a barrier as far as our being able to understand how and why things work at the quantum level. There could be an ocean of mechanics and means behind this quantum barrier, but we may never have the capability to see it.
  3. So this is better? by rimcrazy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Humans already have loads of free time now and what do we do? We piss it away watching Jerry Springer and WWF eating cheezy poof's on the sofa turning into fat slobs.

    For me, I'd rather spend a little more time outside and with real people instead of wiring myself more than I already am.

    Technology has it's place...serving me not usurping me.

    --
    "TV, a medium as it is neither rare nor well done." Ernie Kovacs
    1. Re:So this is better? by SlightlyMadman · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I dislike the American tradition of television and cheezy poofs as much as you do, but I really don't think it's your place to judge whether or not that's a worthwhile way for someone else to spend their time.

      If somebody enjoys Jerry Springer and the WWF, and they're perfectly happy to sit around eating junk food and getting fat, then who are you to stop them? They probably find it just as baffling that somebody would want to go walking through the woods and just look at plants.

      It's difficult to see extra free time as a bad thing (unless you think about more abstract effects, like motivation and the value of unhappiness (necessity is the mother of invention, after all)). You use yours how you choose, as will I. Is it really better for a human to spend all of their time working, than to have a machine do it for them, so that human can at least "piss away" their time in a way that brings them pleasure?

      It's tough to spend time outside, when you're stuck in a factory all day long.

      --

      Money I owe, money-iy-ay
  4. A Point or Two by e8johan · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Sounds like he makes a point or two:

    "older technologies should be treated with respect as we seek to supplement or replace them"
    This is something that most launches of new and amazing gadgets fail to see. An ebook is not better if it cannot offer more that an ordinary book. An ordinary book is usually the best book there is.

    In the why section: "Be protected from sending or receiving information that you don't want "
    Like "bug reports" to M$ with so much irrelevant info in 'em that they aught to pay the poor sucker's [who send them in] internet bill.

    In the last section it looks like he is trying to get more funding: "By getting industry to pay the bills for targeted, practical research, using the Media Lab model TTT"

  5. The Diamond Age by djkitsch · · Score: 4, Interesting

    My favorite, the Personal Fabricator, ("a printer that outputs working things instead of static objects")

    This bears resemblance to "Molecular Compilers" as imagined by Neal Stephneson in everyone's favourite nanotechnology novel, The Diamond Age, a device where you simply insert the program describing the object you want, plus payment, and return in an hour or so to retrieve your newly formed item.

    Gives a whole new meaning to Internet Shopping...

    --
    sig:- (wit >= sarcasm)
  6. I've worked with Gershenfeld by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Don't buy into the same hype that he uses
    to charm tech companies into donating to the Media
    Lab. He's been spouting this stuff for so long he starting to believe it.

    I also read several of his books: beware the typos and far-reaching statements. Although, "The Physics
    of Information Technology" is something I believe
    most /. readers would love. (If you ever actually
    use any of the formulas in that book, look them up elsewhere... they're always slightly wrong.)

    1. Re:I've worked with Gershenfeld by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative
      LOL. I have worked for Gershenfeld as well. Agreed about his writing skills, and he has definitely gotten so into his hype that he may not be able to discern what's realistic and/or useful from what's not.


      I found that there was a mix of pure BS and interesting if not necessarily useful work being done in the Physics and Media Group. Honestly, though some was BS, this was still better than most of what is done in the Media Lab, where most work is 90% BS. Go look through the current publications list here. While not much of this is what I would consider "basic research", a lot of it is potentially interesting - physical one-way functions (have been discussed on /. before, parasitic power harvesting, electric field sensing). Then some is just hokey beyond all belief (Electronic Music Interfaces: New Ways to Play, Instrumented Footwear for Interactive Dance). And some of it is stuff like NMR QC which may someday pan out, though frankly it doesn't seem like anything terribly innovative has been done with this recently in the Gershenfeld group, that may change now that Isaac Chuang has moved there from IBM Almaden - still 50 years out from usefulness if ever.

  7. A week? by John+Paul+Jones · · Score: 5, Funny
    [jpj@soul jpj]$ uptime
    10:27am up 46 days, 18:02, 19 users, load average: 0.69, 0.35, 0.23

    I must be late.

    -JPJ

    --
    Feh.
  8. Uptime by Arthur+Dent · · Score: 4, Funny
    My PC does run for more than a week without crashing:

    % uname -a
    SunOS <hostname-deleted> 5.7 Generic_106541-12 sun4u sparc SUNW,Ultra-2
    % uptime
    7:21am up 160 day(s), 19:11, 2 users, load average: 4.95, 4.40, 4.33

    Maybe you need a different PC?

    :)

  9. Good review , questionable future by Ted_Green · · Score: 4, Interesting

    As the header says, it does seem a bit overly optimistic. Esp: "When things talk to things, human beings are set free to do work they find more appealing." It just seems to scream utopia socalism, but more to the point in our history with all the great time saving inventions and methods, many "ordinary people" still spend as much time doing "chores" as they did 50, or even a 100 years ago.

    Of course, if one is talking about the work place then there's an entierly differnt issue. That of unemployment. (I'm not saying wheter it's good or bad to introduce technology that can do another's job. I'm only saying it *is* an issue, esp. if you're somone who's job is at risk.)

    1. Re:Good review , questionable future by spencerogden · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The difference is that 100 years ago, you might have worked 10-12hours a day to earn enough money to feed your family, and you wife would work at home all day doing landry, mending clothes, cooking, etc... Now with many chores automated we get to own TV's, A/C etc. It not the elimination of work, it removing some work so that we can focus on other things. History has shown that people don't use the extra free time machines gove them to loaf around, they use it to produce more, and make their lives better, cleaner, and healthier.

  10. Speeding toward meaninglessness by Dan+Crash · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ...when computers are so smart, cheap, and ubiquitous that they do many ordinary chores to help ordinary people. When things talk to things, human beings are set free to do work they find more appealing.

    This is the same old nonsense that's been touted ever since the age of the washing machine. Considering the thousands of labor-saving devices we've acquired throughout the 20th century, by this logic we ought to be living lives of perfect leisure now. But this isn't what happens. In industrial societies, "labor-saving" devices don't. Work expands to fill the time available. When things think, I'm sure you and I will be freed from the tedious chores of cooking, driving, cleaning, and living. We can become machines ourselves, consumed with work until we burn out or die.

    (More at Talbot's Netfuture, if you're interested.)

    --
    He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.
    1. Re:Speeding toward meaninglessness by FeloniousPunk · · Score: 4, Insightful

      All work is not the same. I much prefer the sort of work where I can sit at my computer, and from time to time visit Slashdot, than being out in the elements digging ditches.
      Those labor saving devices do save labor, and I'm thankful for them. Just start washing your family's clothes by hand for a while and you'll see what they mean by labor saving.
      If I had to do all the chores that need to be done the way they were done in 1900, I'd sure as hell have a lot less leisure time. It ain't perfect leisure, but it's more leisure, and that's pretty good considering the alternatives.

      --
      I know this because Tyler knows this.
  11. Research by sql*kitten · · Score: 5, Interesting

    One underlying theme dear to Gershenfeld's heart is the death of traditional academic distinctions between physics and engineering, or between academia and commerce. Applied research is real research.

    How would he know? MIT Media Lab, under Nicholas Negroponte, don't do anything that any academic or industry practitioner would consider to be "research". You see, in the words of Negroponte, they live in a world not of "atoms" but of "bits". In the world of atoms, researchers have to produce such things as peer-reviewed papers and working prototypes. In the world of "bits", researchers are measured by the number of column inches they get in Wired magazine. MIT Media lab churns out books and articles by the tonne, but it's little better than scifi, most of it, and very little of it is even original.

    You would think that the hard-headed engineers at MIT would have seen that the Emperor has no clothes and would have cut off their funding by now, but mysterious the Media Lab clings to life. They are an embarassment to real futurists everywhere. Contrast them with the work done at IBM's labs, or BT's, or even Nokia, where stuff is made that actually makes an impact on the real world a decade or two later.

  12. Our Disposable Society by drhairston · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How will things that think be developed?"

    By making them small and cheap.


    The invisible addendum to this sentence is expendable. Small, cheap, and expendable - the mantra of the Japanese economy. Someday we'll be so deep in silicon poisoning that it will be a worldwide crisis, and we'll have to have a resolution like the Kyoto Protocol so that our president can ignore it. But like our automobile industry fifty years ago, we should march relentlessly ahead with abandon until we reach a crisis point, rather than attempt to head it off now.

    If machines could truly think they would be screaming at us: "Don't Throw Us Out!!!".

    --
    Dr. Joseph Hairston
    Superintendent, CCBC
  13. Re:Uptime on W2k by Frank+of+Earth · · Score: 3, Funny

    C:\>uptime
    'uptime' is not recognized as an internal or external command,
    operable program or batch file.

    C:\>Windows has found unknown command and is executing command for it.

    C:\>Don't try to save your work because I'm rebooting now.

    C:\>Warning, could not upload pirated software registry to Microsoft

  14. See it as an overview of the possibilities of AI by ckuijjer · · Score: 4, Interesting

    My grandfather once gave me a copy of this book. Being interested in what I do learning Artificial Intelligence he also read it. He found it clarifying the possibilities of AI and IT in general a lot. Him not having the slightest experience with computers generally would mean that it's not so interesting for someone deeper into the subject.

    But while it's true that the book doesn't get really technical and left me wondering for a lot of the details, the enthusiastic way it's written and the really original projects that are described make it a really nice read. It's really motivating and can help the known problem of having learned a programming language and not having the slightest clue what to program in it.

    I think that when you don't see it as a computer book but as reading material for a holiday the book deserves more than a 5. Borrow it from someone and read it, it's not like it'll take a lot of time.

  15. Things Don't Think - People Do by johnrpenner · · Score: 3, Insightful


    Materialism can never offer a satisfactory explanation of the world.
    For every attempt at an explanation must begin with the formation of
    thoughts about the phenomena of the world.

    Materialism thus begins with the thought of matter or material
    processes. But, in doing so, it is already confronted by two different
    sets of facts: the material world, and the thoughts about it.

    The materialist seeks to make these latter intelligible by regarding
    them as purely material processes. He believes that thinking takes
    place in the brain, much in the same way that digestion takes place in
    the animal organs. Just as he attributes mechanical and organic
    effects to matter, so he credits matter in certain circumstances with
    the capacity to think.

    He overlooks that, in doing so, he is merely shifting the problem from
    one place to another. He ascribes the power of thinking to matter
    instead of to himself.

    And thus he is back again at his starting point. How does matter come
    to think about its own nature? Why is it not simply satisfied with
    itself and content just to exist?

    The materialist has turned his attention away from the definite
    subject, his own I, and has arrived at an image of something quite
    vague and indefinite. Here the old riddle meets him again. The
    materialistic conception cannot solve the problem; it can only shift
    it from one place to another.

    (Philosophy of Freedom, Chapter 2)

  16. Scooping the loop snooper by m0i · · Score: 5, Funny

    Here is a poem that illustrate the limitations of a computerized brain:

    No program can say what another will do.
    Now, I won't just assert that, I'll prove it to you:
    I will prove that although you might work til you drop,
    you can't predict whether a program will stop.

    Imagine we have a procedure called P
    that will snoop in the source code of programs to see
    there aren't infinite loops that go round and around;
    and P prints the word "Fine!" if no looping is found.

    You feed in your code, and the input it needs,
    and then P takes them both and it studies and reads
    and computes whether things will all end as the should
    (as opposed to going loopy the way that they could).

    Well, the truth is that P cannot possibly be,
    because if you wrote it and gave it to me,
    I could use it to set up a logical bind
    that would shatter your reason and scramble your mind.

    Here's the trick I would use - and it's simple to do.
    I'd define a procedure - we'll name the thing Q -
    that would take and program and call P (of course!)
    to tell if it looped, by reading the source;

    And if so, Q would simply print "Loop!" and then stop;
    but if no, Q would go right back to the top,
    and start off again, looping endlessly back,
    til the universe dies and is frozen and black.

    And this program called Q wouldn't stay on the shelf;
    I would run it, and (fiendishly) feed it itself.
    What behaviour results when I do this with Q?
    When it reads its own source, just what will it do?

    If P warns of loops, Q will print "Loop!" and quit;
    yet P is supposed to speak truly of it.
    So if Q's going to quit, then P should say, "Fine!" -
    which will make Q go back to its very first line!

    No matter what P would have done, Q will scoop it:
    Q uses P's output to make P look stupid.
    If P gets things right then it lies in its tooth;
    and if it speaks falsely, it's telling the truth!

    I've created a paradox, neat as can be -
    and simply by using your putative P.
    When you assumed P you stepped into a snare;
    Your assumptions have led you right into my lair.

    So, how to escape from this logical mess?
    I don't have to tell you; I'm sure you can guess.
    By reductio, there cannot possibly be
    a procedure that acts like the mythical P.

    You can never discover mechanical means
    for predicting the acts of computing machines.
    It's something that cannot be done. So we users
    must find our own bugs; our computers are losers!

    by Geoffrey K. Pullum
    Stevenson College
    University of California

    --
    have you been defaced today?
  17. I'm still waiting by teamhasnoi · · Score: 5, Insightful
    for the majority of *people* to think.

    To quote Joe vs. the Volcano: '99% of people go through life asleep; the remaining 1% walk around in a state of constant amazement.'

    To add to that I'd say: 99% of people *think* they're awake; the remaining 1% know they've got some waking up to do.

    There you have it, your Zen moment of the day.

    To be quite honest, if I'm still waiting for a Photoshop render, or a level to load in RTCW, our machines aren't ready to think.

  18. Can be a scary thought by D0wnsp0ut · · Score: 3, Insightful

    To quote the [bad] movie Runaway:
    "Humans aren't perfect so why should machines be perfect?"

    Honestly, I see engineers and developers walking down the hall with their shirt half-tucked in and their shoes untied. A sign that either

    • they can't think for themselves
    • they don't care enough
    Now, both of those indicators give me serious pause when I consider that they may be designing machines that "think." If the developers can't think for himself/herself, how is his/her "thinking" machine going to think? If the developer doesn't even care enough to tie his/her shoes, do they care enough to engineer a "thinking" machine to the very high degree it requires and can I trust them to care enough?

    I dunno. Maybe I'd feel better about all this if every time I turn around I didn't see Yet Another stack-overflow or buffer-overrun bug (yes, the quality of code is getting better but there is still too much of this crap.) Maybe I'm just a pessimistic pisser. Perhaps I enjoy laughing at an engineer when they fall flat on their face after tripping over their untied shoelace.

    --
    "Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither!"
  19. That is so true... by SuperKendall · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The primary advantage of ebooks is pretty much the ability to search text, and take up little physical space.

    But that's only really useful for reference texts. For fiction, only the lack of space is much of a benefit that is overwhelmed by all of the other complications ebooks offer (like needing to have power to read or have to deal with an interface to change pages).

    I think the most successful eBook will be when they make a "real" book with pages out of electronic paper, and let books "flow" in and out of the eBook. Then you still have a paperback that doesn't require power to read, but you can carry hundreds or thousands of books with you in the space of one physical book.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  20. I gave up on futurists by Elwood+P+Dowd · · Score: 4, Funny

    I gave up on futurists when Alvin Toffler predicted that "in the future" we'd wear paper clothing.

    I mean, maybe he's right. But who cares?

    --

    There are no trails. There are no trees out here.
  21. We do not have a clue about AI by Animats · · Score: 4, Insightful
    I'm suprised to hear the Media Lab guru talking about "things that think". This is meaningful only for a very low definition of "think".

    "Thinking" has been ascribed to mechanical devices for quite some time. Watt's flyball governor for steam engines yielded such comments in its day. Railroad switch and signal interlocking systems were said to "think" early in the 20th century. At that level, we can do "things that think".

    But strong AI seems further away than ever. After years in the AI field, and having met most of the big names, I'm now convinced that we don't have a clue. Logic-based AI hit a wall decades ago; mapping the world into the right formalism is the hard part, not crunching on the formalism. Hill-climbing in spaces dominated by local minima (which includes neural nets, genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing) works for a while, but doesn't self-improve indefinitely. Reactive, bottom-up systems without world models (i.e. Brooks) can do insect-level stuff, but don't progress beyond that point.

    I personally think that we now know enough to start developing something with a good "lizard brain", with balance, coordination, and a local world model. That may be useful, but it's still a long way from strong AI. And even that's very hard. But we're seeing the beginnings of it from game developers and from a very few good robot groups.

    Related to this is that we don't really understand how evolution works, either. We seem to understand how variation and selection result in minor changes, but we don't understand the mechanism that produces major improvements. If we did, genetic algorithm systems would work a lot better. (Koza's been working on systems that evolve "subroutines" for a while now, trying to crack this, but hasn't made a breakthrough.)

    It's very frustrating.

  22. Having read the book... by dmorin · · Score: 4, Interesting
    ...three things stay with me (although honestly I think only two of them are explicitly mentioned and I am extracting a third from that).
    1. The throwaway technology example of those little plastic/metal strips that set off the security alarm if you steal clothes. You have to be able to make such things for less than a penny and assume that they will all be thrown away. Years ago when I started talking to people about smart cards, they cost a few dollars a piece and the first question was always "Wait...I have to buy these and then give them to people?" Once you can make smart devices (and by smart I believe he defines it as needing enough memory to having a unique id, or something like that, and maybe transmit it?) then you are well on your way to a level of ubiquitous computing that you can't imagine *without* that. Imagine the audience of people that own a PDA. Now imagine the audience of people that, say, wear clothes. The numbers are staggeringly different. Will everybody eventually own a PDA? Unlikely. Could we potentially imbed PDA-like technology in clothes? Sure.
    2. Power. Batteries are a huge problem in their clunkiness, weight, and generally short lives. If I recall this book talked about things like a power source in your shoe that would recharge throughout the day as you walked. "Ubiquitous recharging", anyone? If we combine this with the first point about throwaway technology, people will no longer think "Damn, time to recharge my coat" they will expect to just buy a new one. Therefore if the batteries die out too often, this is no good. The batteries need to last as long as the coat lasts, without explicit recharging.
    3. Thinking. (Here's the one I'm not sure was specifically mentioned in the book). A famous quote is attributed to Minsky where he says "My thermostat has opinions. It has three of them. It is too cold in here, it is too hot in here, it is just right in here." By that logic, one could argue that the penny-costing strip "thinks" that is is still in the store, or thinks that it has just been removed from the store. Much like the emergent behavior found in cellular automata and artificial life, there is no rule that says "thinking" must come from higher level processes. Didn't Minsky's "society of the mind" deal with a similar concept, that higher level thought is really just a collection of lower level ones?