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Moore's Law Disputed
Kumiorava writes "Transistors can be packed to same chip two times more in every 18 months. This Moore's law has been repeated already over 30 years. Computers become faster, IT economy grows, but Moore's law doesn't apply. That has been proven by researcher Ilkka Tuomi. You can read the research from First Monday article The Lives and Death of Moore's Law." 'tho, to be fair, it seems to me that Moore's Law has lasted a lot longer then the throng of people who keep predicting its death.
The oft quoted 'Moore's Law' as some have said before, is not in fact a law at all, but instead a theory proposed by Moore based on the economic and technological trends of his time. He by no means meant to imply that this measurement be used as a benchmark of the technology industry. The fact that is is not only known, but hotly debated in the industry shows not the accuracy of the 'law', but instead the success of the marketing campaigns based off that quote. To be quite realistic, some manufacturers have pushed out technology that has not been completely tested in order to compete in the marketing game of Moore's Law, and thus we have cheap, unreliable PC's. (Don't get me wrong, this is only one of many reasons for this effect!)
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You can have it fast, accurate, or pretty. Pick any 2.
Moore's Law has never really been a hard and fast law. It's more of a rule of thumb... I've read a few books that mention it, and some of them even disagree on the time period in which the double takes place. Some say a year, while some say 18 months. I've also seen articles which claim as a part of "Moore's Law" that the prices also cut in half.
Defying Moore's Law isn't like defying gravity. We know that at some point, miniturization will no longer be possible. It's hard to double the number of transistors in one space when they're on the atomic level. Do you think we could do that in 18 months?