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Moore's Law Disputed

Kumiorava writes "Transistors can be packed to same chip two times more in every 18 months. This Moore's law has been repeated already over 30 years. Computers become faster, IT economy grows, but Moore's law doesn't apply. That has been proven by researcher Ilkka Tuomi. You can read the research from First Monday article The Lives and Death of Moore's Law." 'tho, to be fair, it seems to me that Moore's Law has lasted a lot longer then the throng of people who keep predicting its death.

13 of 252 comments (clear)

  1. Re:IN SOVIET RUSSIA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    hahaha that made me crack up for some reason. :D

  2. Re:There goes another one of my solid beliefs :) by Da+Fokka · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    To answer my own question, maybe things will start falling upwards when I'm capable of posting stuff without typo's :)

  3. IN SOVIET RUSSIA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: -1, Offtopic


    Every one and a half years doubles YOU!

  4. Totally off-topic, but... by DChristensen · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    This is totally off-topic, but I just noticed the blatant advertising on the first link of the "Related Links" section. Has this been going for a while? It seems to show up in other articles as well...

    Curiouser and curiouser....

    --

    --
    Mac OS X--Unix without the assholes^Whassles.

  5. Linux killed Moore's law by pyth · · Score: -1, Offtopic
    It's practically obvious that this is due to nothing other than the rise of Linux as a popular operating system. Since Linux is able to use memory and cpu power more efficiently then Windows, people spend less on cpu and memory. So there is less demand for researching larger memory chips and faster CPUs.

    This is very fortunate because as Microsoft operating systems naturally bloat more and more, Linux tends to shrink. Eventually people will be forced to stop using Windows because the RAM and CPU costs needed just to run the OS will be prohibitive.

  6. need a longer Now... by darekana · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    The clock for a longer now...

    and some slow food to eat while we wait for now to pass us by.

    That's what we need.

  7. moore's law? who cares ... how about murphy's? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    his laws bite me in the ass more often than moore's

    besides, generally speaking, moore's laws are good ones ... murphy's on the other hand ...

  8. Re:It was never a "Law" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    well tell 2 the gov they make teh laws wats teh big ide ritin shit@@ (;)!!!)))))) here wen u shuld b dooing sumthing abuot it laze fuckin american
    !!!!

  9. Re:Other computer components speeding up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    y dont u get a fucken life betta tehn ritin stoopid shit!!! here al day wack of abuot computers shti wot ur fuckn computers not fast enuff cant kep up wit ur hand rubing ur smal cock!!!!!!!!!

  10. Moore's Law is flawed! by teamhasnoi · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    You must have more marshmallow to offset dryness of the chocolate and graham cracker. This farce has gone on long enough!

  11. IN SOVIET RUSSIA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    Laws of thermodynamics obey YOU!

  12. moron rumours that elmer fudd's career... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    is in shambulls. many say, he was the won whois hurt the MoSt. others dare to disagree:

    "1) Earnings Management: The first and most important tool Microsoft uses is the manipulation of earnings to ensure analysts' expectations are met. According to an ABC News 1/22/99 article by Michael Martinez, Microsoft's own internal auditor, a respected 30 year veteran and former partner of Deloitte and Touche, was fired in 1996 after informing management that their earnings manipulations were illegal and violations of the SEC and FASB laws. He was given the option to resign or be fired and later settled for $4 million after suing under the Federal Whistle Blowers Act.

    2) Speculating on Their Own Stock: Microsoft issues a massive amount of put options. During the same quarter ended 3/31/99, Microsoft sold put contracts on their own stock for $400 million, basically betting that the stock will not decline. They need not worry because they are allowed to "cook the books." Of Microsoft's significant cash balance, it is also a financial fact that more than 65 percent of that cash did not originate from product sales but rather from tax benefits associated with the exercise of stock options, employees prepaying their own wages, and the sale of put contracts on its own stock. Microsoft's financial innovation is making a mockery of financial integrity, ethics, and the securities laws, just as Insull did in the 1920's.

    3) Convincing Employees to Take Less Real Wages: Microsoft aggressively markets stock options to new employees in an effort to take wage expenses off the books. They also know that they can pocket the exercise price employees will be required to pay to take ownership of the stock. What also seems clear is that Microsoft is still aggressively marketing its stock option program to new recruits. To quote an email received, "I am about to begin employment at Microsoft and the stock option was the selling factor. Does your article overall state that it will be bad for me and will fail me in my retirement planning?" Is Microsoft fulfilling its disclosure obligations to its own employees, especially those that have put their entire 401K balance in Microsoft stock? This explains how 22 percent of Microsoft's massive cash balance has actually come from its own employees in the form of them prepaying their own wages through stock option exercise prices.

    4) Publicly touting the stock: In a recent earnings release, CFO Greg Maffei jokingly cited 10 reasons why Microsoft is a $1 trillion company. A common strategy here is to have top executives issue conflicting statements, one talking up the stock and the other talking it down and then within a few days financial analysts all come out with buy recommendations on the stock due to a small decline. They are making a mockery of financial integrity, ethics, and the securities laws.

    5) Controlling the media. After issuing several press releases on PR Newswire, Microsoft told the service to stop issuing my press releases. Microsoft is PR Newswire's largest client. PR Newswire is owned by Miller Freeman of the UK, a large media company that publishes many computer related publications including Information Week in addition to Microsoft focused journals such as the Windows System Developer. Miller Freeman does indeed function as if it were a department of Microsoft itself.

    6) Stock Option Accounting: It is important to note that any discussion of stock option accounting must address two completely different and independent situations. The first is to analyze the impact of options exercised and already retired and the second is to analyze the remaining options debt outstanding. This study focused on both whereas most media coverage only focuses on the remaining options debt outstanding."

    look for: va.msn.net, (VAST)?

  13. LINUS TORVALD'S classmate? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: -1, Offtopic

    Wasn't this Ilkka dude Linus Torvald's classmate in Helsinki University? I seem to recall so.