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Updated Information On Columbia Shuttle Tragedy
Thanks to all the readers who have sent links related to today's shuttle disaster. An Associated Press story carried on Salon says that an independent board (with members from the Air Force, Navy, Transportation Department and other federal agencies) has been appointed to investigate the disaster. CNN is carrying official statement from President Bush. Rediff.com has an article on the life of Indian astronaut Kalpana Chawla. borisonanovitch points to "more info on the science aboard Columbia and links to other NASA research." fabel reminds us "Most of the media is focusing on the slight damage that ocurred at takeoff (that NASA discounted at the time) but STS-107 was *delayed* for 6 months (original launch date 19 Jul 2003) Update: 02/01 23:51 GMT by T : [Note, should read "2002."] because of
cracks in the propellant feed lines to the 3 main engines. A defect that could have caused catastrophic failure. Did the fix work or not?"
If I'm not mistaken, the 3 main engines are used on launch only. They're useless in space, since they run off of the main fuel tank, which is jettisoned after the boost phase. The only engines of relevance in orbit/reentry are the OMS and RCS engines.
;-)
Wow-- someone who knows the STS architecture
I think that there is a likely chance that what occured was that the foam which struck the left wing during launch probably caused enough damage to the ceramic tiles on the left wing to cause substantial structural heating, tire failure, and hydrolic failure. As this continued, the structure would have failed-- remember that aluminum does not survive well when being heated to 3000F.
LedgerSMB: Open source Accounting/ERP
It would seem more likely that at this point they don't know what happened. If they knew what happened that would suggest they knew enough to fix it.
The Challenger disaster O ring problem only came to light several months after the disaster. And it took Dick Feynman's demonstration with the ice water for the theory to be accepted as fact. Before that NASA was claiming that the O rings were fine. Feynman had been tipped off by engineers who thought otherwise. It was not an accident he had very cold ice water to hand.
I doubt the fuel lines would have anything to do with disaster on re-entry. The orbiter has no fuel at that point. It is the famous flying brick.
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I've put together an animated GIF from radar archives showing the initial appearance of the Columbia radar track and the subsequent growth and drift of it,
Go to my blog and scroll down to the "Shuttle Disaster on Radar" item and click the link at the end of the article (labeled "radar image loop").
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The fuel lines which were repaired have nothing whatsoever with the failure today.
The three main engines are fueled by liquid hydrogen, the propellant, and liquid oxygen (LOX), the oxidizer. The propellent and LOX is provided only during the takeoff of the Shuttle. The fuel and LOX is pumped from the large brown-colored external tank attached to the Shuttle. During the ascent to orbit, the external tank is totally exhausted of LOX and fuel, and is jettisoned by firing explosive bolts which hold the external fuel tank to the Shuttle.
The fuel lines which formerly were cracked are not used in any way after the external tank is jettisoned. Those three main engines you mention are not used at all after the external tank is gone. They can't be. The fuel is gone. And the fuel lines which feed those engines are fuelless as well. They cannot explode by leaking, as there is nothing to leak, and nothing to ignite.
You may want to know that there are two much smaller engines (the two shrouded "bumps" on the rear top of the Shuttle on each side of the horizontal stabilier fin) which are not fuelled by liquid hydrogen. These are the orbital maneuvering engines, used for orbital changes, as well as the all-important de-orbiting burn which slows the Shuttle down enought to start falling back to Earth. The engines, it must be stressed, are not fuelled by the fuel lines which feed the three main "ascent" engines I mentioned earlier.
I would assume, but do not state authoritatively, that the two smaller orbital maneuvering engines are purged of fuel and oxidant after the Shuttle begins its descent to Earth. It would be incomprensible if there was any explosive whatsoever in any of the propulsion systems, because after the Shuttle begins the drop out of orbit, the engines are never used again. The fuel would be dead weight, not to mention a hazard which would serve no purpose.
Remember, the Shuttle is a dead stick glider after it enters the atmosphere. No engine power is possible. The engines are shut down, and never used after the de-orbital burn.
Whatever took the Shuttle apart was not explosive. There was no explosive mix on the Shuttle.
Opinion: Something fell off, unbalanced the craft, and pinwheeled it at 12,500 MPH, at which point it simply tore apart.
Speculations:
- A damaged wing tore off?
- The tail tore off?
- Somehow, one or more of the cargo bay doors opened?
- Somehow, a wheel bay door opened, even partially, and at that speed, flipped the craft?
- catastophic skin failure somewhere on the nose or belly of the craft?
- one of the engines came loose? Reaching here.
- one of the tiny attitude control rockets fired, swing the ship out of true, and slamming into a Mach-speed wind? This seems unlikely - I'd think those hypergolic fuel tanks would be purged before reentry.
- control surface(s) on the wing somehow moved, rolling or pitching the Shuttle?
- the rudder somehow moved?
- the parachute system released the chute, causing enough turbulence to flip the shuttle around?
- window failure?
- airlock door failure?
- (sadly) action of a crew member?
We must keep in mind that the Shuttle is the ultimate experimental aircraft. In a sane world, we would have evolved safer and cheaper craft in the last thirty years. But we were cheap, and cut the program to the bone -- down to the marrow.
The Delta Clipper would have been a smaller, cheaper, reusable single-stage-to-orbit wingless space taxi. We could have developed it on the cheap for a few billion over a period of ten years. But we went for the ultrasophisticated and ultimately unbuildable superspaceplane.
Now we have three X-craft that are proven to fail about every decade.
Developing simpler and safer craft is of maximum importance. The shuttle as it flies is too dangerous -- a compromise for the Air Force and the spooks during the early seventies, built to fly giant spy sats instead of the tiny taxi it was supposed to be. The tiles are impractical. The flight surfaces are unstable and parasitical weight.
We need to spend real money, and NOT just to fund Boeing/Lockheed-Martin. We need to build a real fleet of ships that do what we need them to do. Small passenger craft.
We can't keep trying to reach the stars with a budget that can't even pay for a repainting of NASA HQ. You can't cheap out R&D -- it doesn't work. People die. We must spend what the ENGINEERS say they need to build the next gen of craft, and the gen after that, and after that.
We built the equivalent of a biplane, and froze time. We must build the DC-3. The 707. The tech has to evolve naturally, as engineers learn from past flaws. We do not do this. We have insisted that NASA first build a flying boxcar it didn't deem necessary. Then we wanted this experimental craft to last for forty years or more.
The real miracle is that the NASA engineers have kept this sad can flying since the late seventies.
Infact only the computer can land the plan because any angle that is more then a few degree's off what the designed limits are would brake apart the vehicle. The computer probably was confused since it could not recieve a sensor reading on the left wing but decided to go at it anyway which caused the shuttle to spin out, burn and break within seconds.
The astronaughts just sit there untill the final part of the mission near the runway. The computer takes care of everything and a human is not capable of handling the precision.
I just found out about the temperature reaching extreme conditions for a few milliseconds before the shuttle broke. New news. My guess is the cabin leaked and filled with fire when the the seal seperating the cabin air from space broke open bringing in super heated air. The rudder probably flipped voilently upward or downward due to the lack of hydro fluid which probably boiled away if the left wing really did infact overheat.
Even if the astronaughts did not run the program the cabin would turn into a furnace anyway from just the lack of a heat shield where the landing assembly broke as well as the left wing. The layer seperating space from cabin air is as thin as a blanket and can break easily. They did what they had to do and just hope it would work because you really have no options. At least it was quick and painless.
They were not wearing spacesuits so I am sure they did not meet the same fate as was rumoured from Challenger astronaughts. The orange suits only provided oxygen and pressure. No heat insulation.
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Ice hasn't disloged or damaged any tiles for some time now. The ice used to build up on the top of the external tank (ET), and was shed during the liftoff. Nowadays, there is a big cap over the external tank, and dry nitrogen gas is blown down over the ET nose, so no ice forms. On this launch, some of the foam insulation was shed. It isn't hard like ice; it's kind of light and foamy like a dry sponge. It could have done some damage, but not like the ice used to do. The ice used to damage the external tile surfaces of ceramic (white) tiles (not the back carbon/carbon tiles).
In addition, whole tiles used to come off because they weren't glued in place properly. This hasn't happened in the last 75 flights, because of an improved pull test, which yanks off the improperly glued tiles.
The final tile failure mode which has been fixed was this: water intruded into the joints between the tiles while the bird was on the pad (in rainstorms etc). The water flashed to steam during reentry (if memory serves) and that popped the tiles off. Improved seals between the tiles fixed that problem around the same time as the improved "pull test".
In spite of all these improvements, some problem needs to be found and fixed. Given the very low aerodynamic loads when it came over the coast (at 7:43) a chief suspect would be still have to be a failure of the Thermal Protection System (TPS), just as you say.
I'd say Boeing should bear at least part of the blame.
In the real world, when you have a contract to do something and you end up going over budget, you have two options: Swallow the loss or swallow the loss. However, government contracts don't work that way. Contractors get to write clauses in the contracts that essentially say "If we go over budget, the government will pay us the difference." The original bids are nothing but ink on paper.
As an example, Northrop-Grumman recently purchased Avondale Shipyards in SE Louisiana. Currently, they're working on two projects. One is to build transports for the US Navy, and the other is oil tankers for what is now Conoco-Phillips. As with all US shipyards, they've grown fat and lazy with government contracts and the work they do is sub par (the private sector avoids US shipyards like the plague they are unless the Jones Act requires one).
Both contracts are way behind schedule and well above budget, but the Conoco-Phillips contract is the only one hemorrhaging money. The US Navy (ie. you and me) keeps on pouring good money after bad because the contract requires it. Sure, the GAO sniffed around a little a few months back, but nothing has changed because of it (it keeps people employed for the time being, which is all congresscritters really care about). The shipyard has already sworn off all future commercial contracts (like Newport News) and has actually offered to pay Phillips if they pretty please don't opt for the additional hulls in the contract.
NASA is over-budget because the ISS is over-budget. The ISS is over-budget because
- Boeing is over-budget, and
- NASA was dumb enough to sign the contract
Congress and the White House, for whatever reason, essentially told NASA "Too bad, you deal with the lost money," which meant NASA had to cut funding for other things (Pluto-Kuiper Express, shuttle replacements, ISS lifeboat, etc.).When all is said and done, you cannot place all the blame on either President Bush in particular or the Republican Party in general. If any one "thing" is to get all the blame, it's the whole God damned bureaucracy.
One of my earliest memories is seeing the last of the Apollo launches from the beach in Florida. I watched the first launch of the Columbia with my class in school. I got to see it in person, once, when it was being kept briefly at Ft. Campbell, KY, to avoid some hurricane or other.
My ten-year-old doesn't understand why this is a big deal. Space travel, to her, is like CDs and PCs and microwave ovens -- a routine part of the world as it is. She was born after the cold war, after the glory days of the space program. Maybe when she's older, she'll understand that the space program transcended all the petty factional divisions and murderous religious and political ideologies of this sad world and was for a lot of us a shining example of the very best of the human race and a beacon of hope for a better future.
Growing up in the 70's, astronauts were the only people I ever really thought of as heroes. NASA was the only government agency I could admire, whatever its faults, without a trace of cynicism. That hasn't changed.
I wish I could somehow take my daughter back in time to that day on the beach when I looked southward towards the Cape and saw a Saturn V rise from the horizon on a pillar of flame. Maybe then she could understand why her parents were crying in front of the TV today. Instead, the best I could manage to say was, "They were astronauts. Our dreams went with them."
Godspeed, folks. You were the best of the best. You will not be forgotten.
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