AOL Not Alone In Subscriber Decline

E-Rock-23 writes "Our registration-hungry friends at the New York Times are running this article with a few more details on the AOL Subscriber Decline, covered in a recent /. post. And it looks like they aren't alone, as Earthlink and MSN are experiencing similar troubles. The article cites a major reason being that users "are buying broadband services offered by cable and telephone companies." Looks like broadband is finally gaining some significant ground with home users..."

Comments

Here's a thought -- less disposable income!

[Deagol]

Let's not forget that the economy is in the crapper. The $20-to-$30/month for a dialup subscription can feed a family for a few more days when things get tight.

Yeah, broadband is a nice upgrade. But I bet more people disconnected due to money than the need for speed.

Re:Here's a thought -- less disposable income!

[Deagol]

I'm not talking about tech weenies like you and me. I'm talking about the slightly poorer folks who decided to indulge in that cool internet thing that's all the rage. When push comes to shove, I'd wager that when it's time to start trimming back (another kid on the way, dad's hours are cut back, or mom looses her job), people will cut the ISP before things like cell phones (1-year contract) and subscription TV (cable, satellite, etc).

It was simple math for me!

[Marqui]

Although I was with a local ISP, the cost of the 2nd phone line was $25.00 and my ISP was $15.00. Broadband through the cable company was $40.00 so it was a complete wash for a huge increase over 56k, why would I want to stay on dialup? They can thank all the baby bells for not wanting to go the "last mile" to give people a choice of providers.

Re:It was simple math for me!

[Gortbusters.org]

I made the same choice years ago. And if you have other people in the house that want to use the internet, you can forget sharing a dial-up connection. Ah, memories of fighting for computer use. Casual users might be able to share a dial up to check e-mail and such, but as soon as you have a DAOC player, a pr0n fanatic, or slashdot reader you need full access 24/7.

Stickyness of email address masks the real problem

[jj_johny]

I think that AOL, MSN and every other ISP would have a lot higher churn if it was easy to get stuff forwarded. Since your email address is really the only way that people can get hold of you, it makes the switch difficult. And since every company wants to spend as little as possible on support, there are lots of unhappy people out there who just don't want to go through the hassle.

As a former AOL employee, I still have an AOL account even though I find the service has ticked me off more than a few times but my wife can't really change her email address at this tmie. So we are like so many who just are waiting for the right time.

You can't stop the future, you can only simulate it by stopping progress

Broadband...

[blindcoder]

isn't what is used to be.
Here in Germany you can get a 128kBit up / 768 kBit down async line. The best a normal household can aford is 192 kBit up / 1536 kBit down async.
The problem is that as bandwidth goes up, quality of the net goes down.
I heard people saying: "Why should I not place these 2MB images on my website? It's downloaded with my DSL line in seconds."
And don't even try to tell these people what a thumbnail is.

It's just one example but you can find more of these. People sending 15 MB .swf files via E-Mail to 20 different friends and the like.

SQL Slammer won't have had the effect of broadband coming to every home.

Sharing broadband

[roalt]

Another advantage of broadband internet is that it is easy to share it with room-mates or neighbours. (even though it's not always allowed). It's a lot cheaper buying together one large broadband (ADSL or cable) internet connection than all using dial-up.

With the coming of wireless internet, it even becomes simpler to share the net (you don't even have to dig or drill a line in the ground or wall for your ethernet cable). I think this also has some impact on the decline of dial-up subscriptions.

Re:Of Course People are gowing broadband

[Apreche]

You're right on every count, except that it wont keep aol in business. AOL's business model depends on the fact that they will always be getting more subscribers. Even in AOL managed to keep everyone from leaving they would begin to lose money. The fact that people are leaving means big trouble for AOL. Mainly because they have a giant useless dial up ISP infrastructure. That infrastructure costs money, and if nobody uses it that's all loss. Sure there are a lot of idiots who keep paying for AOL after they get broadband. But unless AOL has a constant increase in membership they will have diminishing returns and eventually go bankrupt. They're still huge, so it wont happen soon, and they've still got a chance to save themselves.

The reason for Declines

[Anonymous Coward]

Since I work alot with the public and their computers let me tell you what I think the biggest reason for the decline is.

90% of the houses I go to are for people who are upgrading and now want two computers. (Their old one + their new one) AOL requires a $20 subscription fee + more money for multiple screens and though you can have broadband and still use AOL they still charge an aol usage fee.... *yawn*

So they upgrade to broadband because that 56k stuff has to go and because it can easily service two computers, they buy a router, they leave AOL but download the messenger to stay in touch with their buddies. They migrate to using Outlook Express (cringe) But they also have norton so I guess thats ok... sort of.

Then they also cancel AOL + Second Phone Line and broadband is about the same price. Some even cancel their phone and do VoIP. (Its rare but there are some really good offers out there that even offer wireless phonejacks that you can sticky to your wall or plug into an outlet...)