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Benford on Space Exploration
gid-goo writes "Gregory Benford looks at what we should do in the aftermath of the Columbia accident. Is the shuttle, or the International Space Station for that matter, useful? Or just payola to aerospace interests and a means for keeping Russian rocket scientists employed?" Benford's comments about the necessity of a closed biosphere and of some way for astronauts to stop muscle and bone loss are far more insightful than the usual discussions about where our space exploration priorities should lie.
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_246696.html Scientists say they've discovered that cats purr to help them get better when they're injured. The researchers at the Fauna Communications Research Institute in North Carolina call the purr a natural healing mechanism. They say the purr helps their bones and organs to heal and grow. It works in a similar way to ultrasound on humans. Exposure to similar sound frequencies are known to improve bone density. Dr Elizabeth von Muggenthaler, the president of the institute, said: "Old wives' tales usually have a grain of truth behind them and cats do heal very quickly. The healing power of purring seems to explain their 'nine lives'." She told The Sunday Telegraph: "We are starting to solve a 3,000-year-old mystery as to why cats purr. The next phase will be to explain the mechanics of the process." Story filed: 15:49 Sunday 18th March 2001
It's tragic to watch the current fallout of the Columbia disaster. Certainly NASA, relevant manufacturers, and the United States Government will be asked to answer for any negligence which may have caused the loss of the shuttle and her seven crew. But I would implore anyone reading this not to conclude that the loss of the Columbia should mean the end of human spaceflight.
If anything, our commitment to space should be radically expanded. The current problems in the space program are the result of all power and authority over the development of space exploration being held in a single decision-making body. NASA, which is a marvelous organization and which certainly provided the basis for the early successes in space, is simply not equipped to move space exploration ahead. It is a government entity, unbound by market considerations, and weighed down by bureaucratic inefficiencies which make radical changes - such as the introduction of new technologies in a cost-effective manner - impossible.
The question, however, must be posed whether space exploration in itself is valuable enough to transfer to the private sector. This question is analogous to the gradual shift in the control of earthbound exploration schemes from sovereign control to chartered corporations. To answer the question, however, without respect to the analogy, no, space exploration in itself is not particularly valuable. It is another medium, another vehicle for transporting humans and their commerce, as well as seeing what's out there. I doubt any private venture at this point would find this to be a profitable scheme without, to be circular, some way to make profits from it.
Thus the analogy: space travel is valuable only insofar as it brings benefit to the people of this planet, or, more specifically, to the shareholders of any corporations which undertake it. In near space, the profits are easy to identify. The GPS system which allows boaters to find their way to fishing spots provided the "spiritual" basis for private venture such as XM Radio. Government-financed spy satellites showed private corporations that money could be made selling space-based imagery of the planet.
But none of these requires human space flight. In order for there to be profit in the human expansion into space, there must be some market for the products which can be produced exclusively or most efficiently in space, whether directly in the case of manufactured goods or indirectly in the case of products developed using experimental data acquired in space. As one discussion group poster noted in response to a question on the necessity of humans to supervise space-based experiments, "It's hard to count ants from 140 miles down."
The International Space Station is a fiasco, and so is the space shuttle. Given the radical developments in materials sciences and knowledge of the effects of space on human bodies, it is as unlikely that the shuttles would have remained in private service for twenty years as to consider that Boeing might continue to build aircraft using the processes and materials perfected during the development of, say, the now-obsolete 727. Even a plane that has had a 30-year lifespan such as the 737 is today not the same plane except in the most superficial way as the first model that flew out of Everett Field.
My plan for space would include the following broad steps. First, ground the shuttle fleet only as long as is necessary to conduct materials review of the launch equipment (fuel tank and rockets), the cooling tile system, and any particularly vulnerable areas of the shuttle's structure (particularly any structural elements on the bottom of the spacecraft). Second, apply any changes rapidly - within no more than two years - with a national commitment to redeploy the shuttle as a stopgap measure in the interests of national security and commerce (as well as prestige). Third, set a hard deadline to retire the shuttles by 2014 at the absolute latest - perhaps 2012 to coincide with the 50th anniversary of American spaceflight. Fourth, provide incentives to corporations to begin manned space flight outside the scope of NASA oversight. Fifth, turn NASA into a regulatory agency for the purposes of establishing safety guidelines; and a science agency which would fund and oversee pure science activities in space. Sixth, provide ongoing incentives for the next two or three decades to promote human exploitation of space by private corporations.
The money for such incentives could probably be found in the monies freed up by the unfortunate loss of Columbia. I would name two incentive packages: the Challenger Fund for the rapid commercialization of space exploration, and the Columbia Fund for the ongoing support of pure science exploration by government or commercial entities. A third package, the Apollo Fund - deriving its name from America's other fatal space mission, Apollo I - would subsidize development of safety mechanisms and alternative propulsion schemes for space exploration.
Our planet is small. Our resources are limited. Only a hundred miles above our heads is the gateway to, literally, a universe of options. There are planets packed with natural resources and room for human habitation. There are asteroids which at once pose a direct threat to our planet and could be a staggeringly rich source of raw materials for the improvement of human civilization. And, as always in a new realm, there is a near infinite space which will provide further insights into this incredible and complex universe in which we are such small but special players.
Now is not the time to draw back from our commitment to space. If anything, we should conclude that the loss of Columbia means that we have reached the limits - after 40 years of remarkable successes - of government monopoly over rich space exploration.
I suspect that the crew of Columbia and their families would agree. After all, they were drawn to the space program because of the opportunity to do something revolutionary, brave, and necessary for our world, not because they wanted to get rich. They would - I hope - support any initiative which would have given them more opportunity to do the work they loved. If we could demonstrate that private control of the space program would, in fact, radically expand that space program - in the same way that private corporations increased and improved the reach of the automobile, the airplane, telecommunications networks, and the Internet - I believe that those astronauts and the astronauts who remain would support us.
Don't give up on space. It is not only our future, but also our present. Make it better, do not declare it dead with those men and women who have died in their ongoing quest to expand the reach and the value of our lives.
Tonight on Studio2, a 3-member panel debated the virtues of the manned space program from a cost-benefit stance, from the human-wonder-fulfillment stance and the most interesting, from the "all of humanity's eggs in one basket stance".
SciFi author Robert J. Sawyer [link] explained that the space program is more than just about vanity, or the desire to prove worth. If it weren't for curiosity, none of us would have left Africa some 6-7 million years ago.
I believe the space program is necessary, because it allows us to test new technologies to their limits. Like pens that can write upside down...
I would also like to point out that NASA seems to be ignoring the first A. That's a great error in my eyes. Atmospheric transportation will always be more common than interstellar imo.
The final thing I have to add, is the fact that humanity will reach a population impasse. Even if (hopefully when) all of the world develops, and rates of population increase drop, consumption of natural resources will eventually deplete reserves. I believe space exploration is but one link in the chain that will lead us away from Earth, and towards a new home. Maybe one with track lighting?
I think that this is an excellent point. Having grown up in the 1980s and 90s, I watched NASA's budget drastically shrink relative to the GDP and I watched NASA stumble along at a terribly slow pace with minimal public support. One can't help but think how great it must have been in the 60s and early 70s when the public was jazzed and scientists were having fun. But this is a frightening point...
Can it really get worse? I personally feel there might be something to this: what happens when a large part of the population suddenly retires, the nation goes broke? Can interest shift further away from space exploration? Is this our last chance to get people interested in NASA before we see an even greater decline in public support?
What do you think?
Die Menschen verhoehnen was sie nicht verstehen. -- Goethe.
One thing I have noticed on looking at information about the space programs for various country's
I have asked many people lately who was the first woman in space. Invariably the answer is either "I don't know" or "Sally Ride". This is such a pity
The world is amazingly ignorant of the history of space exploration. This is saddening. Considering the absolute minor number of injuries and deaths involved in space exploration compared to what has actually been happening, it is all rather amazing.
The problem at the moment is that space is too expensive; even the Russians charge thousands of dollars per pound, and they've got the cheapest launchers going.
The reason for the high cost? We don't launch enough. The point is that if you look at the technologies out there, this one might save you 20%, that one 10% etc. But each doubling of the number of launches typically saves you 15%; and it's a gift that carries on giving. The minimum cost for launching into space appears to be very low; comparable to the cost of a Concorde flight, the amount of fuel used per person is somewhat comparable.
Therefore we need a purpose for space that requires launching a lot. Space Tourism is likely to meet that niche.
Reliability is of course the second question after price. However, take the Shuttle; it's extremely likely that both crashes are caused by design flaws in the Shuttle; and that the number of flaws that remain undiscovered will decrease over time. Therefore the reliability of the Shuttle should increase, and there's no known limit to how reliable launch vehicles can be.
It seems from surveys that many people would like to go into space, so the interest is certainly there. If the low cost vehicles are available, then it permits travel to low earth orbit. Mars, the moon, the asteroids would then be possible, and it seems that LEO is more than halfway to these places.
-WolfWithoutAClause
"Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"A good point! Here's something that has stumped me for years: Why in bejeepers is everyone gung ho about mars? We've got a perfectly good stepping stone that's 9/10's of the way to anywhere in our solar system parked about 300k kms from us! Not only that, should the need arise, it's conceivable in time of need those stationed there could be evacuated. Perhaps I've just read too much Robert Heinlein (Methusalah's Children, for one. )
If someone wouldn't mind elucidating why the moon is such a poor choice, I'd appreciate it. Please, don't let it be merely that the moon is less interesting politically.
This is so lame...
What is the point of NASA and the Space Administration;
1. Military space support
2. Space-based business
3. Learning about the nature and evolution of the universe.
4. Getting a significant number of human beings off the planet before the sun get's too toasty to support life on the third rock.
The first three items need a cheap and reliable facility for getting hardware up as often as possible. The shuttle was never designed for this duty. The next generation human transport won't be either. There has to be two tracks for getting stuff up there. One track for hardware, flown by wire and robots, managed with a minimum risk to human life.
The next track needs to be a safe, effective, relatively inexpensive way to get large numbers of people off the planet and back again safely. By separating the tasks intelligently we should be able to cut costs and design time, and build optomized systems for the appropriate tasks at hand.
Next we need to stop pissing billions away on pointless millitary spending designed to blast little brown people into giving us their natural resources. There're plenty of resources circling the sun, and the first ones to begin mining them are going to get filthy rich (that includes enough hydrocarbons to float the Iraqi's in an ocean of oil.) We need to stop playing footsies with our neighbors and get the heck off the planet. If we diverted 25% of the millitary budget to space exploration, development, and utilization, we'd be visiting substantial cities at L5, the Moon, and on Mars within all our lifetimes. Things on the big happy checklist of skills to develop include;
1. Protecting people from hard/solar radiation outside the earths magnetosphere.
2. Creating a sustainable, portable biosphere (3 feet of water surrounding a living enclosure would stop virtually all of the hard radiation, as well as insure sufficient water for living in sustained trips into space, and providing a barrier to high velocity microparticles.)
3. Providing artificial gravity, the problems of bone loss are the tip of the iceberg for long term exposure to zero-G. We are optomized for 1 G living and less will causes serious long term problems. We already have the research to indicate the long list of problems associated with zero and low G living. We may even need to build rotating structures on mars and the moon to provide suitable gravity (building structures on rotating arms like a centrifuge, to provide additional artificial gravity.
4. Isolating or biology from their biology. Until we actually begin the serious process of teraforming a planet... we need to make sure their bug don't infect us, and our bugs don't infect them. This is going to be a solid gold bitch. We don't even have a clue how to do this (bacterial sporse can survive vacuum, high temp, hard radiation, and deep cold. In short, we don't even know how to sterilize our tools and ourselves to the degree necessary to indure the saftey of our people and any rare ecologies we may contact.
5. We have to improve our ability to move through space... we have to move so much faster. Chemical rockets are just not going to feed the bulldog, we need to do so much better.
6 We need to come up with a sane means to explore space, in such a way that the entire world receives a share of all the benefits, while those who put up the big wagers, receive a fair portion of the rewards. As it stands, international law, UN conventions, and a variety of treatise, make truly rewarding exploration of space virtually impossible.
7. We need to have a 5, 20, 20, and 50 year plan that suggests we haven't somehow lost our Father's testicles somewhere in the haze of Lunar exploration. Our parents and their parents, had more testicular fortitude in their little fingers that the entire damn nation has in it's 50 states. What kinds of stories of hardship did the persevere through to get to this country and to succeed here, ultimately planting human foot step on the moon. How many of them died striving for something better for themselves and the children's children. We run out of steamed milk for our lattes and life ends are we know it...
I feel for the men and women that died so bravely. I especially feel for their families... now suck it up, don;t make their sacrafice a popcorn fart in the wind, and let's get on with the business of advancing the entire species.
The answers my darlings are out their waving at us...
Genda B.
P.S. If it comes out that this was another avoidable tragedy resulting frmo the cutting of cost and cutting corners by greedy contractors... I suggest the next shuttle be tiled with high level managers from both the guilty corporation and NASA as an indication that we are not amused.
Disclaimer: I haven't read the article. This is about a newspaper article I read yesterday, that I think fits in this discussion.
In the Dutch paper "Volkskrant", there was an opinion piece by a biologist yesterday. He explained that currently, the experiments done in the Shuttle are nowhere near worth their money. The experiments done (like what's the effect of zero-gravity on species x) test no important hypotheses and the outcome is usually not published in high profile magazines.
Once in a while, every scientist working in a field that could possibly have something to do with zero gravity research gets a request for ideas for experiments. They're basically begging for things to add to shuttle science missions. He doesn't really take these things seriously, since these experiments never test anything important. The important stuff (what's the effect of long term zero grav on humans) has been pretty much covered by now.
Also, a Shuttle flight costs $500 million. You can run his institute on that for a hundred years.
So his proposal is to give the $500M to the scientific community instead, to be used for pure science, and see if the scientists themselves spend it on experiments in Shuttles. "Of course they wouldn't".
I believe posters are recognized by their sig. So I made one.
The problem with saying "Let's get everything fixed up here, first" is this: It can't be done. Solving the problems mentioned, and the untold many in tow behind them, would require lifting most of the species to a standard of living comparable to or equal to that of the United States. We do not have the resources to do that, especially if that standard of living includes environmental integrity as well. Where are those resources? In space: Cheap energy, vast mineral resources, no ecosphere to assault.
The evidence is extremely poor that humanity would indeed focus on solving its ills. Most likely, without some driving idea, without a frontier, we will see an increasing self-absorption and a general numbing of our best impulses. As they say, change is inevitable but growth is not... and the only hope lies in growth, in reaching beyond, not back.
The Mongrel Dogs Who Teach