Tech Jobs Projected to Double by 2010

netbsd_fan writes "Today's Chicago Tribune has an article that claims that the number of coding jobs will double by 2010, and computer support jobs aren't far behind. It's hard to believe since I just laid off our last two Win32 guys Friday. Could this be a turning point in the labor market?"

Comments

Double over hte next 7 years...

[Agent Green]

Funny how over the last 2 years my department went to a third of its size...from nearly 40 at the height of the boom to only 12...and now it's going to take 7 years to double current numbers? Looks like a lot of techies are gonna be out of jobs for awhile to come!

My company is moving locations and intends on laying off everyone who doesn't want to relocate...let me tell ha how excited I am!

I was a fool for thinking that an ISP job was a stable gig...

This sucks for us.

[HanzoSan]

Jobs are about to double, but not in the USA!. Tech support and programming jobs around the world will double by 2010, and even if it does double in the USA, the more it doubles the lower our salaries.

I'm sorry but soon programmer will be what teenage kids do, like mc donalds of today.

Re:This sucks for us.

[yog]

Well that's an interesting prediction, but it doesn't take into account all factors in this equation. Consider the economic ramifications of economic growth combined with outsourcing of IT work.

As the economy recovers and new technologies are adopted, companies will develop products to take advantage of them. Customers will enjoy cheaper and easier access to their bank accounts, more efficient processing of their credit applications, etc.

Though offshore programmers benefit greatly from this expansion, the U.S. economy as a whole also benefits from cost savings and general growth in production and consumption. Jobs will be created, inevitably.

Companies continue to hire locally in order to have a local tech person who can interface with the offshore team. Since more companies are profitable, more local techies will get hired.

Another point to consider is that as demand grows, very gradually we will see salaries rising in India. They have a lot of people but only so many of them can get into a university or otherwise learn the necessary skills to do software engineering. Unlike the U.S., there are not university seats for everyone who wants one. It will take a long time for costs to become prohibitive but it's likely that the difference between offshore and domestic labor costs will shrink somewhat, and the benefits of domestic labor will begin to outweigh the higher price.

Finally I would suggest that American programmers need to get creative and find better ways to earn a buck, such as to associate themselves with a high demand technology or product line, e.g. Oracle Applications, .NET or J2EE middleware tools, etc., and market themselves as go-to people who can get a company's system up and running. Maybe they will farm out the grunt work to an offshore developer, maybe not. But you've got to get out of a commodity market .

Just some ideas. I myself am struggling to find my next consulting contract and I'm likely going to move away from coder-for-hire to more of a product development mode. It's a tough market right now but I think there will be some great opportunities in the next 3-5 years.

Things might be startomg to turn around now

[JBark]

I graduated with a Computer Engineering degree at the end of Decemeber, and after three long months of searching, I finally got a great job and am starting tomorrow. According to some of the recruiters I've talked to in the past couple of weeks, they are starting to see an increase in the number of jobs available in the field. If I can get a job with little real world experience in a town that has had hundreds (maybe thousand) of layoffs in the tech field, things must be looking up.

Re:Woo

[rtaylor]

Even if a robot can do the programming (isn't that what we have now? Caffeine powered robots?) someone still has to tell the robots what to write -- and thats not something your typical MBA can do. There is a huge difference between a current business requirement (MBA) and well designed extensible software for tomorrows business requirements (that the MBA hasn't figured out yet).

Re:That's a long time to be out of work

[DASHSL0T]

Except if your organization originally had a 100 IT person department, and now you have 40, doubling will still leave you with a loss of 20% seven years down the road.

Lies, lies and damn statistics, I say.

Article is PR for staffing and education

[diabolus_in_america]

Carefully read the article, and you will see that the majority of quotes deal with "expanding your skill set." That's good advice, even in the best of times. But the quotes are coming from persons who directly benefit from unemployed IT workers going back to school or testing for certification, so-called workplace and staffing consultants.

Times are tough all over, and you can't begrudge these people for trying to create business for themselves, but in these tough economic times, it seems irresponsible for the Chicago Tribune to report this as news. The article represents nothing more than opinion which a lot of people currently without work will misinterpret as fact and act upon, waiting for the predicted boom to occur.

Luckily, I am still employed, but I know that if the current economic conditions don't change for the better, I will be looking for work in a few months myself. It seems to me that one of the most irresponsible, even stupid, things that I could do now is to dip into my savngs to "improve my skill set" because a bunch of experts with books to sell have convinced the Chicago Tribune that there is another high tech boom just around the corner!

My mortgage doesn't care how up to date my skill set is. Neither does the grocery bill each week. I sympathize with those who are looking for work. I'll probably be doing the same thing in a few months, and I think the smartest thing any IT worker can do right now is prepare to get through the here and now, and not these boom times that are part of imagined future.

This study is a JOKE read on-

[Anonymous Coward]

Here's what a well respected REAL economist has to say about the coming labor market.From Amazon:

The Myth of the Coming Labor Shortage: Jobs, Skills, and Incomes of
America's Workforce 2000
by Lawrence Mishel

Lawrence Mishel, Ph.D.

Lawrence Mishel is the Vice President of the Economic Policy Institute and
specializes in the field of productivity, competitiveness, income
distribution, labor markets, education, and industrial relations. He is the
co-author of The State of Working America, a comprehensive review of
incomes, wages, employment, and other dimensions of living standards
published biennially.

He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin, an M.A. in
economics from the American University, a B.S. (Magna Cum Laude) from
Pennsylvania State University and has been published in a variety of
academic and non-academic journals.

his testimony before the house:
http://edworkforce.house.gov/hearings/108t h/fc/btw 21203/mishel.htm

he publishes the bi-annual and highly respected State of Working America.
Here is this year's copy.:

1. The State of Working America, 2002/2003 (State of Working
America, 2002 2003)
by Lawrence Mishel, et al (Paperback - January 2003)
vs.

Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People
by Roger E. Herman, Thomas G. Olivo, Joyce L. Gioia Official Biography of Roger E. Herman, CSP, CMC

Roger Herman holds a BA from Hiram College, where he majored in Sociology,
and received an MA in Public Administration from The Ohio State University.
Prior to starting his firm, he gained almost two decades of experience in
sales, management, and staff positions in both public and private sector
organizations.

(excuse me.. is this the same as saying he WORKED for a couple decades?
'Cause quitte frankly, that describes everone on this list , too. But I
digress...)

In the public sector, he served as a City Manager (CEO of a municipal
government). During the Viet Nam era, Roger served as a Counterintelligence
Special Agent. Roger founded the company in 1980.

(intelligence during the Viet Nam war.... ok.....)

He would like for you to buy his audio tapes from his website. He may be
selliing baseball caps too.

Couldnt' find that he had testified to anyone ...

Hmmm..I think this is a no brainer folks. To me it looks like these
globalists HAD to say SOMETHING to a book with a title like The Myth Of The
Coing Labor Shortages.

Interesting data and a bit of context

[brokeninside]

I don't know which publication the numbers in the article are based on, but the US Bureau of Labor Statistics predicted last year that Computer Programming positions would increase 16% (about the same rate that they predict the economy in general is expected to grow) and Software Engineering positions will increase by 95%.

A computer programmer per the BLS, will:

Convert project specifications and statements of problems and procedures to detailed logical flow charts for coding into computer language. Develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information. May program web sites.

A software engineer for applications per the BLS, will:

Develop, create, and modify general computer applications software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions. Design software or customize software for client use with the aim of optimizing operational efficiency. May analyze and design databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team. Exclude "Computer Hardware Engineers" (17-2061).

And a software engineer for systems will:

Research, design, develop, and test operating systems-level software, compilers, and network distribution software for medical, industrial, military, communications, aerospace, business, scientific, and general computing applications. Set operational specifications and formulate and analyze software requirements. Apply principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis.

The BLS also mentions that a job as a software engineer is only likely with at least a bachelor's degree in a related discipline.

Math

[Anonymous Coward]

This stat doesn't mean much, even without considering context.

100% growth over 7 years is only 10% growth per year, which, while above the rate of population growth, is hardly burning things up.

This is a little higher than most stats you see like this, that cry doom because something is projected to double in 10 years. That's a 7% annual growth rate, again not a barn burner.

Lies, damn lies...