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US & Russia Pencil in Mars Launch by 2018

snilloc writes "The Washington Times is reporting that the US and Russia (and the Europeans are mentioned too) are planning for an eventual manned Mars trip. Suggested launch years are 2014 or 2018. The article discusses unmanned probes at greater length than the manned plans, but check out the Russian isolation experiment where 6 people will spend 500 days in a simulated spacecraft environment. (Sounds like a good reality TV show to me.)"

20 of 356 comments (clear)

  1. ESA anyone? by rastakid · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I thought the ESA was going to do the same thing, around 2009? Why not co-operate a little, and share the costs?

    1. Re:ESA anyone? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yeah... like we "shared" the cost of the International Space Station? (ISS)

      or like we "share" the cost of the United Nations?

      It would be like leveraging Microsoft's Security Team on your next Linux project.

    2. Re:ESA anyone? by 2short · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Without the 'who gets there first' game, we probably wouldn't have gone to the moon at all. Cooperation is great as long as you have motivation. Competition is great for providing motivation. So you usually need some competition for jobs like going to Mars or building a better mouse trap. Pure cooperation works best for jobs like putting out fires. So clearly, we must find a way to set Mars on fire.

  2. Need some good old fashioned talking by 0x00000dcc · · Score: 3, Insightful
    I think what we need, in addition to the usual "announcements", is a leader somewhere, presumable the president of the united states or russia, to just come out and tell the world it's gonna happen. People are held accountable when this happens (sometimes at least). Think about JFK's speech. People really latched on to that announcement. Bush/Putin or sucesssors should follow suit. It's time to put people on that frigging planet, people!

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    -- (Score:i, Imaginary)

    1. Re:Need some good old fashioned talking by TopShelf · · Score: 2, Insightful
      The only problem, of course, is that the timeline involved is far beyond the political lifetime of these leaders. What does it gain a current president to pump up a project that's at least 11 years out?

      Don't misunderstand, I think we definitely need strong backing from leadership to make space programs a higher priority. But I just don't see that happening...

      --
      Stop by my site where I write about ERP systems & more
    2. Re:Need some good old fashioned talking by FatherOfONe · · Score: 3, Insightful

      While I would love to see someone land on Mars, I have to ask the questions.

      1. Who will pay for it? Look how much the moon landings cost the U.S.

      2. What will the benifit be?

      3. After Russia backstabbed the U.S. in the Iraq war, do you think that we will still work together?

      Given what is going on in the world I don't see Bush or anyone approving the HUGE budget needed to start this type of thing.

      Again, I would love to see this happen, but it all depends on the cost. ~60% of my income goes to taxes now, given that I have to compete with near slave labor from India and Russia for jobs, I don't want to see taxes go up at all. Well that isn't totally true, I think that there needs to be an import tax on all software development done outside the country! Perhaps that could help fund this thing!!!

      --
      The more I learn about science, the more my faith in God increases.
  3. Good idea, bad company? by Trevalyx · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I am all for space exploration, and taking a closer look at Mars is wonderful and all, I'm glad someone is scouting out area for my future apartment, but don't we remember what happened LAST time we partnered with Russia on something outside of our atmosphere? The wretched travesty of the ISS is now loping along in a slowly descending orbit, is years and years behind what it was supposed to be, and will, more than likely, never live up to the high aspirations that were originally held for the Freedom, the space station that the United States planned for years before the global consortium got together on the ISS.
    Russia is simply not a viable partner, not due to their science (they were in the cold war too, after all) but their financial instability. It's not their fault, but it shouldn't become our space program's problem (again).

    1. Re:Good idea, bad company? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful
      OK, quick test. Russia vs the USA. Which one has a manned space vehicle that can get to the space station with the lowest chance of killing its crew?

      Hell, if financial instability is a problem, NASA shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a space program...

  4. Re:Yeah, Right... by SpinyNorman · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You seem to forget that the US doesn't even have a reliable way of getting men into orbit right now, let alone anything more ambitious.

    The only thing from stopping the ISS from dropping out of orbit is Russian robot supply craft that are also nudging it higher, and the only way US astronauts will get to/from the ISS before the Shuttle design is fixed (without risking their lives) is via Russian spacecraft.

  5. So why don't they all work together? by beuges · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Seriously, apart from the bragging rights to say "We put the first man on Mars", what benefit is there to having the US, Russia, ESA and Britain all working independently towards sending probes/manned trips to Mars? If a team made up of the best minds from each of those agencies were to work together, they'd not only be ready to land on Mars sooner, but they'd save billions in the process.

    1. Re:So why don't they all work together? by ChuckDivine · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What makes you think that will work?

      NASA claims to have the best people in the country. While I dispute this to some extent, they still have a good number of top quality people. In spite of this they haven't even been able to create a successor to the shuttle. Perhaps it's because they are putting all their eggs in one basket.

      Putting all the best people (even if it can be done) in one group can have negative consequences. You can get a group think phenomenon where everyone starts to think the same way. Dissent can be suppressed. This leads to unhealthy problem solving behaviors.

      One project may take a long time to fail. And it might take even longer to see that failure. Multiple projects can lead to greater learning -- that's the real key to success.

      In the computer field we've seen greater progress from letting multiple efforts flourish. Similar things can be said for all sorts of human endeavors. Why is space different? Because that's what those currently dominant think and say?

      I say let's try multiple approaches.

      --
      "Beer is proof God loves us and wants us to be happy." -- B. Franklin
  6. Gee I thought it was 2010 last week by HanzoSan · · Score: 2, Insightful

    And before that it was 2008, now its 2018? Just face it, we will never go to Mars in our lifetime, and why? Because the government doesnt want to give NASA the money to go.

    --
    If you use Linux, please help development of Autopac
  7. Don't get too excited... by CommieLib · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Fifteen years may as well be fifty in terms of Russian economic and political stability, not to mention international relations.

    The article is light on logistical details, but assuming that we're more Robert Zubrin than we are BattleStar Galactica, the mission will involve a long period of technological development followed by deployments of resources in advance of human explorers. That's a long time for a lot of factors to remain "in the window", IMHO. Even the ISS didn't manage to remain entirely in that window, and that was far more flexible in terms of planets lining up and such.

    I'm pleased at least to see that it's on the TODO list at NASA, but I don't take this too seriously.

    --
    If your bitterest enemies are people who hack the heads off civilians, then I would say you're doing something right.
  8. Re:Major problems first; Slashdot censoring? by reallocate · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Ok, you can stay home, then. The rest of us have places to go.

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    -- Slashdot: When Public Access TV Says "No"
  9. Somewhat overoptimistic by PhysicsExpert · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The simple fact is that we're probably not going to get to Mars in the next 20 years, it simply isn't as simple as people would like to think. Most of the problems revolve around the fact that any expedition to mars would last up to 3 years(apollo 11 took around a week) and for the great majority of this the team would have to cope with problems unaided. Consider this: The CLOSEST that mars gets to earth is 86.5 million KM which means that any communication with the earth is going to take 5 minutes to get there and the response 5 minutes to get back. That means that for any problem that can't be solved in 10 minutes you're completely on your own. The astronauts on Apollo 13 would have been doomed had they had a 10 minute communication lag with ground control. other problems include sickness (its going to happen if you're away for months and illness that are trivial to cure on earth would be major problems halfway to mars, not to mention the degeneration of muscles, bones and the heart caused by being weightless for long periods of time), nutrition(how do we keep our astronauts in tip top shape for months on end when we have no way of getting food to them), radiation and pyschological problems (think being couped up in a space the size of your living room with 5 people for a couple of years). Yes, most of these problems are solvable (especially if we develop a technology considerably faster than chemically fuelled rockets) but the fact is almost everything that a manned mission would achieve can be done for less money and risk by robots. Its just not going to happen.

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    All that glitters has a high refractive index.
    1. Re:Somewhat overoptimistic by dasunt · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If by sickness, you mean disease, then yes, the chance of little green men infecting the crew with the Jovian Flu halfway through the mission is high.

      Think! 5 men in isolation will not have a lot of opertunities to catch a disease.

    2. Re:Somewhat overoptimistic by Flamerule · · Score: 2, Insightful
      I feel like exercising some physics knowledge, so here we go....
      Most of the problems revolve around the fact that any expedition to mars would last up to 3 years(apollo 11 took around a week) [...]
      Sure, 3 years with shite technology.
      Consider this: The CLOSEST that mars gets to earth is 86.5 million KM [...]
      Without bothering to check that figure, let's assume you're correct. Solving some basic mechanics equations, we see that assuming a constant acceleration, we will need a time t=sqrt(x / a) to traverse half of a distance x. Set x to your figure of 8.65*10^10 m, and arbitrarily use an acceleration of 2 gravities, so a = 19.613 m/s^2. Now solving for t yields t = 66409.9 s -- that is, 18.447 hours. Translated to normal-speak, all this means that for a constant acceleration of 2 Earth gravities, a ship would reach the halfway point between Earth and Mars (yeah, yeah, I'm ignoring planet motion, but these times are short enough that it doesn't matter) in 18 hours. Assume constant deceleration after the halfway point, and the ship would come to a stop at Mars in twice that time it took to reach the halfway point, so 36 hours.

      Oh, is 2 gravities a bit much? I suppose that would be stressful, even if it's only for 3 days, so let's try a simple 1 gravity instead. That yields an Earth-to-Mars time of 187836 s = 52.177 hours. So with our astronauts under a force identical to what they'd feel on the Earth's surface, they'd reach Mars in 52 hours. Only 4 days.

      [...] any communication with the earth is going to take 5 minutes to get there and the response 5 minutes to get back. That means that for any problem that can't be solved in 10 minutes you're completely on your own.
      That's okay; Columbus was on his own, too. We'd have laggy communication, which is better than nothing.
      [...] not to mention the degeneration of muscles, bones and the heart caused by being weightless for long periods of time [...]
      As I've mentioned, my hypothetical ship will be under 1 gravity of thrust, so with the decks aligned perpendicular to the direction of thrust, the astronauts would have the illusion of normal gravity. No severe muscle deterioration.
      [...] nutrition(how do we keep our astronauts in tip top shape for months on end when we have no way of getting food to them) [...]
      rofl... I've never seen that argument before. I imagine the astronauts will take some food along with them.
      [...] radiation and pyschological problems (think being couped up in a space the size of your living room with 5 people for a couple of years) [...]
      It's "cooped". And on my ship, the travel time isn't nearly long enough to worry about problems like that. Radiation is a problem; we would need heavy shielding.
      Yes, most of these problems are solvable (especially if we develop a technology considerably faster than chemically fuelled rockets) [...]
      Precisely! I suggest a (relatively!) simple nuclear fission reactor. Bring your parts up over a period of time on a good rocket with a nice $/pounds ratio (ie, anything except the wretched Space Shuttle), and assemble in orbit. The extremely modest 1 gravity acceleration I'm suggesting will be no problem for a nuclear engine.

      "What what whaaaaaat?!", you're saying? Nothing crazy about nuclear power on ships. Our nuclear submarines travel through an environment not unlike space, and they do quite well. It seems to me that the main trouble would be assembling everything in orbit, since we've never done anything quite like that before. An appropriately-designed space station would help; too bad the ISS is a near-useless piece of crap on the same order as the Shuttle.

      Anyway, this is all the stuff that's been running around in my brain for a good long while now. Anyone reading, feel free to point out any fuck-ups.

  10. Re:Yeah, Right... by CommieLib · · Score: 2, Insightful

    On reflection, I would say that you're right. And I suppose that whatever political conflicts arise are likely to be trumped by Russia's need for American dollars for the forseeable future.

    This seems like a good roadmap for the cooperation: America as the venture capital, Russia (where needed) as the contractor.

    --
    If your bitterest enemies are people who hack the heads off civilians, then I would say you're doing something right.
  11. What part of "no" by richmaine · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What part of "no" did the poster of this not understand?

    Misreading "NASA...has no plans" as "the US [and Russia] are planning" is pretty bad,even by slashdot standards. I suggest not (note that "not") applying as a rocket scientist until learning how to read a little better than that.

  12. Russia might not remain a US ally by ProteusQ · · Score: 2, Insightful
    This article from the Moscow Times (which we can agree is not a venue for American Right-Wing-ism) details newly discovered evidence that Russia was pretending to be an ally for the US while acting as an ally for Iraq.

    Relevence?

    Considering that George W. hasn't ruled out attacking Syria, that he hasn't ruled out some kind of retaliation in regards to France, that he isn't some wimp whose hobbies include "having his penis washed by White House interns", might choose to act on this info (assuming that it is verfied, which as yet it isn't). In short, the Mars trip may be threatened by more than the usual budget issues.

    Conclusion?

    The geo-political climate of the world is unstable enough that international efforts to reach Mars, or the moon, or even a consensus about countries that harbor terrorism isn't probable. Look for the Mars mission to get cut, and blame to be placed on the budget.

    --
    Free software, not Iraq, because Gates is evil, and Saddam is just misunderstood.