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Analysis of Netflix's DVD Allocation System
dvd_rent_test writes "Netflix uses the number of movies you have previously rented to determine your priority in getting movies. The more movies you rented during your last billing cycle, the less chance you have of receiving a movie versus an individual who has rented fewer movies. This is why new users have great success getting their movies and older or heavy users have a difficult time getting some movies."
I was one of the "first 1000" to sign up with Netflix. If I remember right they had the "Lifetime membership for $9.99 a month" type thing going on. I loved the service -- until they started charging my credit card "$14.95" a month because they were a little optimistic during the whole:
1. Send out unlimited DVD's for 10 bucks a month and let the user keep 4 at any time -- for any length of time (pick up all shipping costs).
2. ???
3. Profit
I was burned that the price kept going up -- and I don't take nicely to automated withdrawls from my accounts going up anytime the source decides to reinvent their business logic. I should either have to sign up again at the higher price, or sign a document authorizing the higher price.
(+1 Funny) only if I laugh out loud.
accoring to the data, a try is the best way to go. it is a monthly 20$ for netflix right?
at anyrate, there's another service that uses a pay per movie, and you get it for a week or so. don't have the name off hand, but i've used it and wasn't too bad. they had the same setup where they sent you the return envelop, you just had to have it back in the mail within the 10 days. plenty of time to rip the vob's...
The DVD burners currently available can't copy a full-length movie. You have to rip the original movie, and increase the compression (slightly lower the quality) to fit it onto a single disc. You can also slice the movie in half, and use two discs.
Netflix had a big spread in Wired several months back... the business model of the company is such that they are only profitable on accounts which rent 5 or less movies a month. This jives with the linear availability chart at the end of the linked article. When the account had 5 or less rentals in the previous billing cycle, availability of movies in the current cycle is 0-1. But once you pass 5, it decreases.
In other words, as long as your account is 5 or less and you are profitable for them, you will get movies quickly. If you are renting more than 5, it seems they slow you down in an effort to limit you to the 5 through delay tactics.. rather than just saying "up to 5"
Kinda sneaky to pitch unlimited rentals and then use false availability numbers to limit your customers to a preset amount.
I think I will just stick with the local video store. I can rent 4 or 5 movies there for 20 bucks a month without the waiting time OR lies about availability.
I think the article is pretty good, however in my own playing around with my rental queue, I am convinced that queue length is somehow a factor.
When I joined Netflix, I got my shipments in two days from the Santa Ana facility, and I almost always got the top three on my list. Now it seems like they take three days at least. (Get shipping email on Monday, DVD arrives on Thursday.)
Now that I've been a member for six months or so, the top of my list has aggegated together about six movies that are all "Very Long Wait" and to be quite honest, I've never seen them anything other than that. I don't think I will ever get them.
FWIW, I do beleive the article is essentially correct and various service levels with Netflix decrease over time.
It also would not surprise me in the least if they analyze your viewing habits to determine if you are likely to stop using the Netflix service. It would probably be called the Geek Regression.
And just for kicks, the list of movies I will never see from Netflix: Solaris (Original 1970's version), Trees Lounge, Raging Bull, 24 Disc 1, Sopranos Disc 1. Has anyone gotten these?
Never confuse feeling with thinking.
I've been a Netflix subscriber for over a year. I'm on the 5 at a time plan because we have four people in my family adding movies to the rental queue.
For the most part we get everything that we ask for amazingly fast. It's very rare that anything hangs up on the queue with a long wait. Even highly popular and newly released items arrive quickly. And since we are in the Bay Area not far from Netflix central the turnaround time is often just two or three days.
I'm very happy with Netflix. In a good month we'll easily get 20 or more DVDs for an average rental price of under $1.50 delivered right to our door.
If you want to avoid the waiting lists I've always found that to rent a movie in high demand it helps it you rent it on the day it comes out. You can almost always get the movie no matter what it is if you have a movie returned on the day (or day before) it is officially released. You have to always keep track of whats coming out, and try to manage to get a movie returned on the correct day, but it saves alot of frustration.
"It's so convenient that the average Netflix customer watches five movies a month. Some subscribers rent twenty or more. (Which is a problem: Netflix loses money on postage for households that rent more than five a month.)"
So, if this is true (and hopefully Wired has become more trustworth as a "news source" in recent years...), then obviously they want to discourage people from renting more than 5 per month.
The method above seems like a pretty good way to do it!
You can't sue somebody for giving away trade secrets if those secrets were deduced using reverse engineering. There is no IP protection for trade secrets unless the secret is stolen, or given out in violation of a NDA (which is equivalent to stealing it).
Besides the fact that despite the analysis he could still be WRONG. It is only conjecture based on the set of evidence that's been compiled.
Not only that but Blockbuster sometimes doesn't carry the widescreen versions of movies. See this.
That's not how Netflix works. As long as you have 1 movie in your queue with an availability of Now, they will send it. The article talks about specific movies being unavailable, not movies in general. You'll still get a movie, just not the one on the top of your list.
Netflix already has a couple account options:
h p/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=141
1. $20 a month for 3 movies out at a time, unlimited rentals
2. $30 a month for 5 movies out at a time, unlimited rentals
3. $40 a month for 8 movies at a time, unlimited rentals
4. $14 a month for 4 rentals a month
So if you want extra special "I always get the movies first on my list" account, get 2 $20 a month accounts and let one lie fallow (i.e. don't use it) every other month. You'll always get the exact movies you want, and you'll also be able to keep 6 out at a time. Depending on how many you watch in a month, you possibly could get by with two $14 a month accounts.
source: http://netflix.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/netflix.cfg/p
Want to see every step I took to start my company? http://www.rowdylabs.com/blogs/pitchtothegods
"Look, there are only a certain amount of DVDs to go around. In the article, it states that the priority is based solely on the LAST billing cycle. So, if you have a bad month getting the movies you want, you'll have a good month the next time, then bad, then good."
Not true: If you have a number of DVDs in your rental queue, and have them listed in order of priority, what you find is that the New Releases, which may be at the top of your priority list, seem to enter a perpetual status of "Long Wait" or "Very Long Wait," while you continue to receive a rapid-fire selection of the lower priority rentals. Thus, your rental volume remains high each month, whereas your satisfaction drops increasingly each month as you continue to wait for the movies that you really want to see.
I feel horribly betrayed by Netflix's rental practices.
Erin Harold, Seattle, WA
I see a lot of people saying they rent mostly obscure / non-hollywood type films from Netflix. If you're into anime/foreign/art/horror/exploitation/noir/etc films, check out http://www.greencine.com/ - a similar deal to Netflix but they cater to those who don't want to watch the latest Titanic or Castaway. They've got lots of movies you're probably wanting to rent and they donate to arts associations.
Also, those living near Blockbuster (as much as I hate them, I'm a member) may want to take note of their unadvertised Blockbuster Rewards program (at least it seems that way).. $10/year and you get 1 free movie a month, rent 5 get one free and Monday-Wednesday rent a new, get an old. Since their 5-day rentals are now weekly, it is no problem to keep a mon-wed renting schedule, and if/when you do go on the weekend w/ friends or whatever you can snag one with your free rental..
Of course, the banner ads at the top of the page are all for Netflix as I type this..
If this is Heaven I'm bailin out! I cant tolerate this ol tin-tub, so fulla trash and rats...
As for how easy is it to tell an "inbound" from an "outbound" Netflix movie; very easy. Inbound to the subscriber are almost entirely red on the outside and are addressed to the subscriber. Outbound movies going back to Netflix have their address on them and are white on one side.
And since they have opened new service centers (relevant to me, first in Georgia and then in Ft. Lauderdale) the shipping times have been great.
At Circuit City, employees get an at cost discount. Well with DVD's, the new release sale prices are below the employee discount price. Since CC probably doesn't pay more or less than other retailers(online and offline), I would say that yes the sale prices are below cost.
I am of course only refering to the stores cost, not the movie studios cost to manufacture.
Note: I am an employee of CC
Beer Die is the game of champions Learning To walk my own path.
As a Netflix Member since it's inception, I have to disagree that they are screwing you over. I have rarely had a problem getting any movie I wanted and since they have expanded their operation this has been happening less and less, I tend to rent quite a few movies and most of them are new releases, I have yet to wait for any amount of time to get the movies I want. Netflix has said that their eventual goal is to have 24 hour turnaround time for movie rentals. You should all cut this great service a break. And those of you who have not used Netfilx, please don't comment like you know what you are talking about, and the Bait and Switch remark is a little unfounded. They give you exactly what they advertise, they never promise that the movie you want will always be available immediately.
So, if you have a bad month getting the movies you want, you'll have a good month the next time, then bad, then good.
Not so. I will still get (and watch) the same number of movies in a bad month, but the movies sent to me will be those lower down in my queue.
So a bad month gives me just as many movies, but I don't get the benefit of either seeing the movies I really want or getting a higher priority the next month.
This would only be fair if I were to cut back on the number of rentals when they reduce my priority. Doesn't sound like a service I am willing to stick with and pay for in the long run.
If you send me your Netflix queue, 90 day history, and billing history as HTML I will run it through my scripts and see what comes up. My e-mail address is dvd_rent_test@hotmail.com. Just XXX out the last 4 digits of your credit card if you are concerned about it.
Of course if the USPS were losing the movies one could expect losses in both directions. I asked a one-time ex-deputy Director of the FBI about such shenanigans (ooh, my mighty network) and he said that US Postal inspectors would LOVE to hear about such "losses" and to investigate such a matter.
Being a good and right consumer, I decided it wasn't worth the hassle and settled with cancelling my subscription. I was paranoid/concerned that Netflix was purposely "losing" (read "not processing") my returned DVDs in order to slow up my queue. I had been renting about 12-15 movies a month. Once my returned DVDs began getting "lost," my rental rate went down to 4-5 DVDs per month because I had to wait about a week before I could really report them as "lost".
Maybe one day I'll sign up again and ask the Feds to investigate the mysterious disappearance of DVDs in the US Mail.
Netflix? Nutflicks (ouch!) is more like it.
blog
I used to get great picks.. now it seems like everything is on a long wait. Even when its on the top of my list for months!
... many of us here are Hackers, right?
So here is the key.
Open two accounts. One for you, one for your friend down the street. Then take turns getting "big months" and "bad months" and you'll get all of the movies you want and you'll get to watch them with a friend.
Of course this costs you twice as much, so its not like you are stealing... you are just manipulating the system.
42 - So long and thanks for all the fish.
Actually, Netflix does now have some sort of deal with the studios that allows them to manufacture their own discs. Sort of like how the BMG Music Club does it for audio CDs, I suspect.
... the entire surface of the disc is printed a sort of purplish grey color, and the "printed" part is actually the parts that are missing, so you can see the silver of the disc itself through the letters. On these discs, there's just the movie title, the studio logo ... and the Netflix logo.
Check it out: Look carefully at the Netflix discs you get in the mail from now on. Every now and again, you'll get one that has just the title of the film printed in a weird font (kind of Art Deco) and no graphics. Actually, the text isn't printed
So, they ARE trying to do something about the cost of maintaining inventory...
Breakfast served all day!
think about it a little more - the test is a good idea - but one flaw......in the old account you have more than three movies listed in your queues - where as the new account has only the three - Netflix looks to send out your request quickly - so if you only have three movies in your queue then you have a better chance of getting the popular movie that everyone is waiting for. The reason why the veteren account has to wait is because the account has backups after the three popular one's.......so they will grab what is available and next on the list - bottom line......i waited to get "About a Boy" for 2 months.
HINT: Stay ahead of the new releases - if you see a film out in the theaters that you know you will never see it in the theater - save it in your Queue. The only problem is you need to make sure you check your queue every week or other week to move those requests to the front of you queue. New Releases usually hit the main queue 2 weeks before they are released. I have found with movies I saved sometime ago - I actually get the movie in the mail the day before it's even released to the general public. I got Harry Potter 2 the day before it was released.
oh and I average 25-30 movies a month and have over 183 movies in my queue....
Based on some excellent feedback I updated the document. Changes are marked in yellow.