Analysis of Netflix's DVD Allocation System

dvd_rent_test writes "Netflix uses the number of movies you have previously rented to determine your priority in getting movies. The more movies you rented during your last billing cycle, the less chance you have of receiving a movie versus an individual who has rented fewer movies. This is why new users have great success getting their movies and older or heavy users have a difficult time getting some movies."

Comments

I remember

[SomeOtherGuy]

I was one of the "first 1000" to sign up with Netflix. If I remember right they had the "Lifetime membership for $9.99 a month" type thing going on. I loved the service -- until they started charging my credit card "$14.95" a month because they were a little optimistic during the whole:

1. Send out unlimited DVD's for 10 bucks a month and let the user keep 4 at any time -- for any length of time (pick up all shipping costs).
2. ???
3. Profit

I was burned that the price kept going up -- and I don't take nicely to automated withdrawls from my accounts going up anytime the source decides to reinvent their business logic. I should either have to sign up again at the higher price, or sign a document authorizing the higher price.

Re:This is a manufactured problem

[exhilaration]

You can't copy double-layered commercial DVD's. They can only be manufactured.

The DVD burners currently available can't copy a full-length movie. You have to rip the original movie, and increase the compression (slightly lower the quality) to fit it onto a single disc. You can also slice the movie in half, and use two discs.

It's Their Business Model

[Nutcase]

Netflix had a big spread in Wired several months back... the business model of the company is such that they are only profitable on accounts which rent 5 or less movies a month. This jives with the linear availability chart at the end of the linked article. When the account had 5 or less rentals in the previous billing cycle, availability of movies in the current cycle is 0-1. But once you pass 5, it decreases.

In other words, as long as your account is 5 or less and you are profitable for them, you will get movies quickly. If you are renting more than 5, it seems they slow you down in an effort to limit you to the 5 through delay tactics.. rather than just saying "up to 5"

Kinda sneaky to pitch unlimited rentals and then use false availability numbers to limit your customers to a preset amount.

I think I will just stick with the local video store. I can rent 4 or 5 movies there for 20 bucks a month without the waiting time OR lies about availability.

I noticed this as well.

[TheNumberSix]

I think the article is pretty good, however in my own playing around with my rental queue, I am convinced that queue length is somehow a factor.

When I joined Netflix, I got my shipments in two days from the Santa Ana facility, and I almost always got the top three on my list. Now it seems like they take three days at least. (Get shipping email on Monday, DVD arrives on Thursday.)

Now that I've been a member for six months or so, the top of my list has aggegated together about six movies that are all "Very Long Wait" and to be quite honest, I've never seen them anything other than that. I don't think I will ever get them.

FWIW, I do beleive the article is essentially correct and various service levels with Netflix decrease over time.

It also would not surprise me in the least if they analyze your viewing habits to determine if you are likely to stop using the Netflix service. It would probably be called the Geek Regression.

And just for kicks, the list of movies I will never see from Netflix: Solaris (Original 1970's version), Trees Lounge, Raging Bull, 24 Disc 1, Sopranos Disc 1. Has anyone gotten these?

Not True in My Experience

[SirChive]

I've been a Netflix subscriber for over a year. I'm on the 5 at a time plan because we have four people in my family adding movies to the rental queue.

For the most part we get everything that we ask for amazingly fast. It's very rare that anything hangs up on the queue with a long wait. Even highly popular and newly released items arrive quickly. And since we are in the Bay Area not far from Netflix central the turnaround time is often just two or three days.

I'm very happy with Netflix. In a good month we'll easily get 20 or more DVDs for an average rental price of under $1.50 delivered right to our door.

getting movies quickly

[sethaw]

If you want to avoid the waiting lists I've always found that to rent a movie in high demand it helps it you rent it on the day it comes out. You can almost always get the movie no matter what it is if you have a movie returned on the day (or day before) it is officially released. You have to always keep track of whats coming out, and try to manage to get a movie returned on the correct day, but it saves alot of frustration.

Netflix loses money on postage

[hexx]

According to this wired article (see the end of the 6th paragraph):

"It's so convenient that the average Netflix customer watches five movies a month. Some subscribers rent twenty or more. (Which is a problem: Netflix loses money on postage for households that rent more than five a month.)"

So, if this is true (and hopefully Wired has become more trustworth as a "news source" in recent years...), then obviously they want to discourage people from renting more than 5 per month.

The method above seems like a pretty good way to do it!

Solution to problem:

[gte910h]

Netflix already has a couple account options:
1. $20 a month for 3 movies out at a time, unlimited rentals

2. $30 a month for 5 movies out at a time, unlimited rentals

3. $40 a month for 8 movies at a time, unlimited rentals

4. $14 a month for 4 rentals a month

So if you want extra special "I always get the movies first on my list" account, get 2 $20 a month accounts and let one lie fallow (i.e. don't use it) every other month. You'll always get the exact movies you want, and you'll also be able to keep 6 out at a time. Depending on how many you watch in a month, you possibly could get by with two $14 a month accounts.

source: http://netflix.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/netflix.cfg/ph p/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=141

Re:So I wondered..

[TheGax]

There was some sort of post office "sting" if you will going on in 2001. At least here in Florida. It seems that postal workers were indeed stealing Netflix movies. But this has since been resolved from what Neflix's postal liason told me in an email. The case was also before a Federal grand jury at the time (November 2001).

As for how easy is it to tell an "inbound" from an "outbound" Netflix movie; very easy. Inbound to the subscriber are almost entirely red on the outside and are addressed to the subscriber. Outbound movies going back to Netflix have their address on them and are white on one side.

And since they have opened new service centers (relevant to me, first in Georgia and then in Ft. Lauderdale) the shipping times have been great.

Re:This actually seems fair....

[zillyorg]

So, if you have a bad month getting the movies you want, you'll have a good month the next time, then bad, then good.

Not so. I will still get (and watch) the same number of movies in a bad month, but the movies sent to me will be those lower down in my queue.

So a bad month gives me just as many movies, but I don't get the benefit of either seeing the movies I really want or getting a higher priority the next month.

This would only be fair if I were to cut back on the number of rentals when they reduce my priority. Doesn't sound like a service I am willing to stick with and pay for in the long run.

Re:Paranoid about Netflx?

[KshGoddess]

I have a friend who works in loss/fraud prevention who would love to hear your story. If you let them know that you're losing quite a number of your movies, there will be investigation.

He has some great stories about DVD loss, and fraud. My favorite was the hotel that had three or four netflix accounts so they could 'rent' movies to their customers (which, if you've read the FBI warning at the beginning of any DVD lately, you'd know that's not allowed). There are also stories of postal workers stealing the discs and selling them at pawn shops, stories of raids of postal workers' houses with several hundred discs without cases lying about...

For his reaction to this story when I told him about this article (and the slash coverage), read my journal.

So here's the key....

[jhines0042]

... many of us here are Hackers, right?

So here is the key.

Open two accounts. One for you, one for your friend down the street. Then take turns getting "big months" and "bad months" and you'll get all of the movies you want and you'll get to watch them with a friend.

Of course this costs you twice as much, so its not like you are stealing... you are just manipulating the system.