Analysis of Netflix's DVD Allocation System

dvd_rent_test writes "Netflix uses the number of movies you have previously rented to determine your priority in getting movies. The more movies you rented during your last billing cycle, the less chance you have of receiving a movie versus an individual who has rented fewer movies. This is why new users have great success getting their movies and older or heavy users have a difficult time getting some movies."

Comments

So I wondered..

[Anonymous Coed]

I was wondering about this. I have been a member for almost two years, and I am very efficient about sending the movies back quickly (thus maximizing the total number of movies I can see.) I have been wondering for a long time why I never seem to get any of the "Short Wait" movies, much less the "Long Wait" ones. Well anyway, I'm thinking about cancelling Netflix anyway. The post office has lost (or stolen) a number of movies I've sent back anyway. I'll probably just get a PVR instead.

Re:So I wondered..

[zgwortz962]

Actually, I seriously doubt the Post Office has actually lost or stolen these movies. I've been using Netflix for a year and a half now, and have NEVER had a movie lost on it's way to me, but have had 5 lost on the way back, including two that were mailed back on the same day. If it were the Post Office losing these, I'd suspect losses in both directions. It's my suspicion that most, if not all of the "lost" movies are more likely lost at Netflix itself, either not processed correctly when received, or whole bags of incoming that get messed up in some fashion. IMHO.

Re:So I wondered..

[TheGax]

There was some sort of post office "sting" if you will going on in 2001. At least here in Florida. It seems that postal workers were indeed stealing Netflix movies. But this has since been resolved from what Neflix's postal liason told me in an email. The case was also before a Federal grand jury at the time (November 2001).

As for how easy is it to tell an "inbound" from an "outbound" Netflix movie; very easy. Inbound to the subscriber are almost entirely red on the outside and are addressed to the subscriber. Outbound movies going back to Netflix have their address on them and are white on one side.

And since they have opened new service centers (relevant to me, first in Georgia and then in Ft. Lauderdale) the shipping times have been great.

This is a manufactured problem

[ArmorFiend]

DVD burners are cheap now. They ought to just license the ability to burn-on-demand from the MPAA. That way they never run out of Titanic or whatever. Perhaps the MPAA would need to fund "UN inspections" to ensure that the excess DVDs are destroyed.

I notice blockbuster charges ~$3.90 for all DVDs now, "because the cost of replacement for damaged DVDs is so much higher than VHS". Sha, right, why blockbuster's don't all have DVD burners in the back room is purely a testament to bad/non-existant negotiations between Blockbuster and the movie companies.

Re:This is a manufactured problem

[trix_e]

yeah, I'm sure the MPAA thinks this is a *fantastic* idea.

Provide easy access to commercial-grade dupe equipment to thousands of teens around the US making minimum wage working in a store full of source material.

Hmmmm... I wonder why they haven't done this yet?

how many tricks do they have up their sleeves?

[martums]

I had to stop using NetFlix a couple months ago because my USPS carrier wouldn't consistently put them in my apartment's mailbox (leaving them outside risking theft--those big red & white envelopes just scream FREE DVD!).

When I went to kill my membership, they offered me the same membership for less money, what was 3 DVD's for $20 a month, was now two or three bucks less. And the savings could be had on all there other plans, if agreed to use their services for a year or so.

Seems like they've got some pretty "creative" ways of handling their customers. I'm content buying DVDs off of eBay.

Anybody else think they're a little "funny"?

Can't We Just Blame Microsoft or Something?

[Snowspinner]

In the screenshot above Netscape was used to display account "A" while Internet Explorer was used to simultaneously show account "B".

And, of course, the account B was the new one that was having an easier rental time. So it must be that Netflix gives better rental times to people who use Internet Explorer! Microsoft owns everything!

Similar Experience

[JoeCotellese]

I had a similar experience with Netflix. A bunch of current releases were listed as long wait or very long wait. I complained to Netflix and amazingly that day the status changed from long wait to short or available now. Coincidence? I thought so originally but this report sort of sheds new light on things.

Re:make sense

[jhigh]

RTFA...it has nothing to do with your trial period. Your rental availability is based on the account activity of the last billing period. For example, if you only rented one movie last month, then this month you would have good rental availability. If you rented a lot last month, then this month you would have crappy rental availability.

I think it has more to do with the fact that people who are renting a lot are obviously watching more movies. Therefore, the chances that they'll find another movie that they like if the one they REALLY want is not available are pretty good. However, if you only rent sporadically, then the chances that you are going to get frustrated and terminate your service if the movies you want aren't available are pretty good.

My first reaction to this article was that Netflix was way off the mark. However, if you really look at it it makes sense. They are keeping the people who are most at risk for cancelling the happiest. Those people who rent a lot of movies no matter what are less of a cancel-risk, so Netflix isn't as vigilant about making sure they get their first choices right away.

discrimination?

[mstra]

...and older or heavy users have a difficult time getting some movies

I, for one, thing it is *appalling* that NetFlix would discriminate against the elderly and the fat-assed.

m.

I noticed this as well.

[TheNumberSix]

I think the article is pretty good, however in my own playing around with my rental queue, I am convinced that queue length is somehow a factor.

When I joined Netflix, I got my shipments in two days from the Santa Ana facility, and I almost always got the top three on my list. Now it seems like they take three days at least. (Get shipping email on Monday, DVD arrives on Thursday.)

Now that I've been a member for six months or so, the top of my list has aggegated together about six movies that are all "Very Long Wait" and to be quite honest, I've never seen them anything other than that. I don't think I will ever get them.

FWIW, I do beleive the article is essentially correct and various service levels with Netflix decrease over time.

It also would not surprise me in the least if they analyze your viewing habits to determine if you are likely to stop using the Netflix service. It would probably be called the Geek Regression.

And just for kicks, the list of movies I will never see from Netflix: Solaris (Original 1970's version), Trees Lounge, Raging Bull, 24 Disc 1, Sopranos Disc 1. Has anyone gotten these?

Re:interesting

[SpeedBump0619]

I'm not sure it is in their interest to give preference to either group

Think again. As long as people don't really notice then they can keep a higher subscription rate with this system.

The active people, those who like and use the system often, are less likely to give it up over longer wait times. Those people probably have more movies they want to watch, so they can pick those with the lower wait times.

The inactive folks, those who rarely use the system, must be provided low wait times in order to keep them subscribed. The Surest way to make them leave is to tell them they have a long wait for the one thing they wanted.

This system seems designed to maintain the highest subscription rate, which is exactly what I would expect.

Not True in My Experience

[SirChive]

I've been a Netflix subscriber for over a year. I'm on the 5 at a time plan because we have four people in my family adding movies to the rental queue.

For the most part we get everything that we ask for amazingly fast. It's very rare that anything hangs up on the queue with a long wait. Even highly popular and newly released items arrive quickly. And since we are in the Bay Area not far from Netflix central the turnaround time is often just two or three days.

I'm very happy with Netflix. In a good month we'll easily get 20 or more DVDs for an average rental price of under $1.50 delivered right to our door.

Exactly

[Van Halen]

Netflix is actually doing quite a lot to take care of their low-usage customers. I imagine this is a pretty big payoff for them, since they likely make quite a bit more profit on those customers.

My wife and I used to rent 10+ movies a month on the standard 3-out plan. But then we got busier and started watching less and less. Lately we've been lucky to watch 2 or 3 movies in a month, and a few recent months have only seen one. We switched to the 2-out plan sometime last year to save money. I later realized that this plan is not normally offered - our account got flagged and we were offered the plan based on our rental history. Netflix kept a customer and we stayed happy by paying less.

My sister-in-law's story is even more phenomenal. Her financial situation dictated that she cancel completely, which she did. Netflix came begging to get her back, and ultimately agreed to keep her on for a mere $7/month! (I thought it was $7 for 6 months, but this sounds more likely) She's a damn good haggler, so I don't know if this would be common at all; I imagine if they did it too much, they would lose money.

I've always been impressed by the fact that we've been able to get just released movies very quickly. I suppose maybe that's one reason we haven't canceled despite not getting as much out of the service lately. When we do use it, it's always top notch, so Netflix still gets our money. I don't recall having major problems even when we were renting a lot more, but I suppose Netflix has grown considerably since then. I always assumed they kept the service good by expanding to meet customer demand. It'll be interesting to read more comments and see how other people's experiences relate to the study's results. I'd love to see the same thing conducted again with a larger sample size.

If anyone from Netflix is listening!? Open Letter!

[treeandorange]

I've been a Netflix customer for quite some time and I've enjoyed the service immensely. But I wonder...

Why do you keep sending me "Free Trial" offers on the inside flap of each envelope? Why do you keep preaching to the choir?

Even if I had 100 friends, they'd be so sick of me handing them "Free Trial" coupons that they'd stop talking to me. Why not subsidize some of MY rental fee or the number of movies I can rent by offering your PREMIUM advertising space to companies like Best Buy or Circuit City. Or, let the advertisers offset the cost of purchasing a larger quantity of DVDs and remove LONG and SHORT waits altogether.

It seems so obvious to me that the envelop flap should be used for advertising - ANYTHING OTHER THAN A NETFLIX product. I would love to see a coupon for $2.00 off any DVD with the purchase of any other. How about $2.00 off a pizza? How about $2.00 off a movie ticket? Why not co-op the envelope space and sell to local area grocery stores or whatever? Use your imagination!

Use the back of the envelop flap for something that is going to benefit the CUSTOMER. Advertisers are constantly looking for new places to advertise. Here you go, a perfect space.

And when you're all done absorbing this idea, you can send me a check or a job offer. I'm a simple man.

Sincerely,
Andrew