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X-Ray Satellite Coming Down Tonight

Posted by michael on from the falling-down-on-new-jersey dept.

An anonymous reader writes "New Scientist reports that the 1400-kilogram BeppoSAX satellite is coming down to earth tonight (29th April), showering the area below with chunks of metal."

28 comments

  1. DOnt panic, the sky isnt falling!! by Unknown+Poltroon · · Score: 1

    Unless you live here near this x.

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    All Troll + "offtopic" mods are meta moderated as "Unfair", because you abused the system.
    1. Re:DOnt panic, the sky isnt falling!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I've never understood your sig. How is it abusing the system? Do "first posts" and "soviet russia" posts add so much to the conversation that they are not worthy of "offtopic" or "troll" moderation? Plus, if you are given the opportunity to moderate something as "offtopic" or "troll" then I don't see how that is abusing the system when you are working within the system.

  2. ahoy! by Joe+the+Lesser · · Score: 3, Funny

    I for one, am going to catch it on my tongue for sure!

    *runs off*

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  3. probability by stereo_Barryo · · Score: 1, Interesting

    The statement that your probability of being hit is 1 in 2000 can't be right!? The means that, out of 2000 people, one is likely to be hit?? Out of millions of people ( that DO live in the path ) thousands WILL be hit? The number must be a mistake.

    1. Re:probability by OwnerOfWhinyCat · · Score: 1

      I'd guess that the chance that even one person will be hit. There's just bunches of ocean around that equator thing.

    2. Re:probability by Muad'Dave · · Score: 3, Funny
      Doing the math, I get 1.68 million km2 of area. Approx 25.8% of that is land, making the land strike area something like 433440 km2. If the odds are 1 in 2000 of 'being hit', either each person is 216.72 km2 in area, or they expect to hit 216.72 people at once.

      :-) obligatory smiley :-)

      --
      Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
    3. Re:probability by numberthree · · Score: 1

      The article states that although 200 large objects enter the atmosphere per year, and only one incident where someone has been hit has ever been recorded. The woman wasn't hurt either. If there are 6 billion people on the earth, and only one in that many have been hit in the 200 chances, that would make the chances 1 in 1,200,000,000,000 -- and that's considering that the debris ws spread over the entire earth. The chances are even slimmer since it's in a straight line. I guess a lot of tha depends on how populated the area below the debris is.

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      This guy. This $#!%^ guy.
    4. Re:probability by Paddyish · · Score: 1
      [...]each person is 216.72 km2 in area[...]

      I'm .001mm thick, you insensitive clod!!!

    5. Re:probability by M1FCJ · · Score: 1
      I wondered about the same statistic. It is obvious that there is something wrong there. It must be 1 in 2000 for each person, then such a statistic is just rubbish.

      If there are hundreds of millions of people living in those areas as they state, let's calculate. Let's make a very conservative guess: There will be 200 million people living under the impact probability path. 2^8/2^3=2^5. There will be hundred thousand people injured tomorrow.

      With a very very conservative guess (2 million people) there will still be 1000 pople hit!

      It's just typical : You can prove anything with statistics. Or just throw some random numbers to scare people.

    6. Re:probability by barakn · · Score: 3, Informative

      An implicit assumption in your argument is that the incoming satellite will fall as one piece (and you ignored the cross section of that piece, but that was ok as it's a lot smaller than your 217 km^2 human). Also, only the total square area of humans needs to be 217 km^2, not an individual human's size.

      A 1 m^2 human has a 1:1.68E12 chance of being hit by one piece. In 100 million people, the chance of one person being struck is 1:1.68E4. Then 1.68E4/2000 = 8 is the number of expected pieces. I picked 100 million people as a wild guess of the number of of people in the strike zone, but since Indonesia has the greatest population in the zone, I'm probably not too far off.

      --
      "I'm so moist I'm sticking to the leather." -Kermit the Frog on The Late Late Show
    7. Re:probability by phocuz · · Score: 1

      It is an Italian satellite, you must never underestimate the power of Italian technology.
      Per vino ad astra!

    8. Re:probability by JoeRobe · · Score: 1

      It is right. It's not saying that one out of every 2000 people will be hit. It means that in this incident, the probability of a person being hit is 1 on 2000. In other words, if 2000 satellites came out of orbit, only one person would be hit by debris. The population density is already taken into account.

      --
      The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
    9. Re:probability by JoeRobe · · Score: 1

      It is right. It's not saying that one out of every 2000 people will be hit. It means that in this incident, the probability of a person being hit is 1 on 2000. In other words, if 2000 satellites came out of orbit, only one person would be hit by debris. The population density is already taken into account.

      --
      The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
    10. Re:probability by stereo_Barryo · · Score: 1

      "In other words, if 2000 satellites came out of orbit, only one person would be hit by debris. The population density is already taken into account." I don't think so: only 1 person hit by the debris, of the millions in the path, from 2000 satellites is not the same statement that the chance of being hit is 1 in 2000, when the reference is to a single crashing satellite. I can imagine that your version was the one that the scientists stated and then the non-tech journalists garbaged it up to be the one we read.

    11. Re:probability by JoeRobe · · Score: 1

      "The ASI calculates the chance that a person will be hit by falling debris to be one in 2000."

      That's right from the story. It means that there is a 1-in-2000 chance that a person will be hit by falling debris. If they meant one out of every 2000 people would be hit, it would say "The chances of being hit are one in 2000" or "there is a one in 2000 chance of being hit" or something like that.

      There should be emphasis on "a person". That is, there is a one in 2000 chance of one person being hit.

      --
      The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
    12. Re:probability by stereo_Barryo · · Score: 1

      That makes sense. The probability that one person will get hit, of the millions in the area, could be 1 in 2000. I was reading it as "a given person", so that if you were in the area, YOUR chance would be 1 in 2000. English is an ambiguous language and we would be better off speaking in math!

  4. Apropos song by wowbagger · · Score: 1



    she was walking all alone
    down the street in the alley
    her name was sally
    she never saw it
    when she was hit by space junk
    in new york miami beach
    heavy metal fell in cuba
    angola saudi arabia
    on xmas eve said norad
    a soviet sputnik hit africa
    india venezuela (in texas
    kansas)
    it's falling fast peru too
    it keeps coming
    and now i'm mad about space junk
    i'm all burned out about space junk
    oooh walk & talk about space junk
    it smashed my baby's head
    and now my sally's dead

    Devo, Space Junk.

    --
    www.eFax.com are spammers
  5. I got fed up. by Unknown+Poltroon · · Score: 1

    TOo many of my posts were modded into oblivion because the moderator didnt think they were funny, or didnt think they related to the subject. Obvously, there can be some difference of opinon on this, but there is no reason to mod a post down to -1 just because you disagree with it. DOnt mod it up, if you want, fine. Call me an asshole in the reply, fine. But why are they modding my post down, when there mod points could be mch better used modding someone else up?

    YEah, its stupid, and im sure people will disagree, but id just like people to think before they do something destructive, rather than constructive.

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    All Troll + "offtopic" mods are meta moderated as "Unfair", because you abused the system.
    1. Re:I got fed up. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Consider the expression, "Two wrongs don't make a right." Getting modded down isn't destructive, unless you confuse Slashdot with reality.

  6. Re:ballsack in da house by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    you rock. no seriously

  7. Sky Clearance by finity · · Score: 1

    When does the party start?

  8. +1 Insightful by cperciva · · Score: 3, Insightful

    From the article:
    After the satellite was switched off it became impossible to communicate with the spacecraft.

    Is this supposed to come as a surprise to anyone?

    --
    Tarsnap: Online backups for the truly paranoid
  9. my kind of woman by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ailor points out that up to 200 large objects re-enter the atmosphere every year. But there is only one recorded incidence of a person being hit by falling space debris - and the lady was unharmed. "I wouldn't think there is anything to be worried about," he told New Scientist.

  10. Hello Ebay! by Stubtify · · Score: 2, Funny

    Sweet I always wanted to buy parts off an x-ray telescope!