Virtual Indianapolis 500 Winner Announced

Thanks to an anonymous reader for pointing to this Codemasters press release announcing the winner of the virtual Indianapolis 500, ahead of the actual race this weekend. Apparently Sam Hornish Jr. surged ahead at the last minute to win this pre-race simulation, which was staged using Codemasters' newly released IndyCar game for Playstation 2. Is there any reason to hope that these sports sims (racing, baseball, football, soccer, and so on) have a real possibility of predicting the outcome of matches, or entire seasons?

Comments

Statistics

[Samus]

I used to work for a company that did sports simulations on a web site. Most of the engines were based on statistics. Back in March when the maddness hit I used the website to fill out some picks for a pool. I ran each possible game several times and then picked the one that consistently won. It came close and even managed to pick some upsets. If the other team would have won the last game I would have gotten 3rd place in the pool and a bit of cash. So while the current capability is not there if the statistical model is good enough you can get a good idea of what might happen.

They've been doing this for a few years...

[analog_line]

Sony has done it the last eight years with their Gameday football game, like the week before the Super Bowl. I believe they get the captains or each team (not sure of the selection process) to play each other. So far it's predicted the outcome eight out of eight times tried.

http://psx.gamezone.com/news/01_29_03_03_08PM.ht m

I don't see why not

[deacon_jay]

This monkey has a perfect record picking winners in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
And I'm sure that sport simultations are more sophisticated than a monkey spinning a wheel, right?

Not for racing, but maybe for other sports

[Bravo_Two_Zero]

In other sports, past performance may be a better indicator of future performance, even with slightly different environment variables. There are exceptions (numerous, I'd think) like Tom Glavine's first outing as a Met in windy, 38-degree weather (no moisture on the hands for the nuanced friction of a typical release). Rain has a similar effect, but it's more obvious.

And you could say, in football, the Dolphins don't win in the cold, the Packers win in the snow and so on. There, even the changing environment could be figured into a simulation.

But racing is more impacted by microclimates, and those can hardly be predicted for weather forcasting. Particularly at Indy, where the cars don't even use brakes in normal operation (speed primarily drops as the cars drift in the corners or from the associated throttle lift), the simulation goes well beyond the car, track or driver.

And even there, besides the obvious mechanicals, the amount of crud on the track (oil, fuel, rubber, water, carbon fiber threads) and the different rubber compounds available for the tires, the driver is often the least predictable. A sim can say "Schumacher drives this way on this track," but who could have predicted the actions of the unpredictable, talented amateur Kimi Raikkonen? He had no base of data from which to draw, but he scored points as a rookie.

The longer races allow for an exponential increase in all of the above unknown factors. The microclime on turn three changes hour to hour. The new C-compound Pirellis leave more crap on the outside of the hairpin than expected. Billy Boat has a minor case of the flu that is tiring him more rapidly.

So, I'd have to allow that, given a large number of weather scenarios (temp, pressure, wind, sun/shade, precip) combined with weighted random factors for mechanicals and driver behavior, you might predict a portion of a race, like the standings after the first few laps. By feeding live data during the race, you might come closer to predicting the outcome as well.

But remember, if it's possible, a Formula 1 team would likely already be doing it.

Doubtful....

[Monkeylaser]

The deciding factor in a lot of sports, cliche though it is to say, is a will to win. You can't quantify heart, with a statistical breakdown. You can't predict a quarterback is going to stay in a game with a broken leg, (as Donovan McNabb did), or when someone just decides to throw in the towel due to psychological reasons.

Using statistics will get a reasonable margin of error, but if we always knew a winner was foreordained in any sporting contest nobody would gamble on them anymore.

Also, it'd be tough to take into account the factor of coaching. Sometimes you'll get a coach like Buddy Ryan who will actually put out bounties on opposing players, hoping that a vicious defense is going to hit them right off the field. As long as there is a human at the helm of a sports team, it will be very difficult to predict what even the most talented squad of individuals can do.

totally

[chill182]

Video games can totally be used to predict events. Just the other day I played Battlefield 1942 and it turns out the Allies would win in a war against the Axis. Who would have predicted that?