MMOG Subscription Growth Analyzed

Wtcher writes "Bruce Woodcock has cobbled together a chart recording the growth of various massive multiplayer online games in subscriber numbers, relative to each other. I just found it interesting to see a visual summary of how well each MMOG was doing compared to one another." Apart from Lineage, which is omitted because the author says "trying to compare it to other MMOGs is almost like comparing apples to oranges", it seems that Everquest is still way out there in front, but there's a number of more recently-launched titles jockeying for position in this very competitive market.

Comments

What about ATITD?

[Bistronaut]

You insensitive clod! Oh, wait, this isn't a poll is it? ATITD is my MMOG of choice. Check it out at atitd.com and atitd.net. Of course, I think it's only in the thousands of simultanious players right now.

Expansion Packs and Other Thoughts

[MBCook]

Looking at the graph, expansion packs don't seem to do much of anything to the number of players (execpt for the Acheron's Call, which quickly went back to normal). It would seem that while expansion packs are good at keeping gamers from quitting (things are usually flat after an expansion pack is released) they don't do anything to add to the numbers (what do you expect). That said, here are some things I find interesting about different games:

• EverQuest - What can I say? It shot up fast and while it seems to be slowing down (might start DROPPING soon) it's WAY above everyone else.
• Ultima Online - Can someone explain to me the big upswing before the last expansion pack? The upswing started at about Nov '02. Is this some kind of pre-expansion pack rejoining?
• FFXI - Seems to be growing fast. What do you expect from a FF game?
• Anarchy Online - Why did this suddenly drop/plunge after March '02?
• Sims Online - Went up quick, leveled off quick, what comes next (falls off quick????)?
• WWII Online - Do they have a hard limit on the number of subscribers? It's like a straight line. Would be good if there were more than a handfull of subscribers.

This chart will be cool to watch if he keeps updating it. It will be interesting to see what the new EverQuest game does to the old, etc.

Also, it would be cool to see the same graph, only relative to the previous sample instead (so up/down trends could be seen easier).

Re:Data is nice, conclusions are better

[ObviousGuy]

Evidence 1: Everquest was not the "first mover."

Evidence 2: There were other MMOGs before it like Ultima Online.

Conclusion: it is still possible for a new game to be successful.

Your conclusion is not supported by any of the evidence. In fact Everquest is the primary first mover as they have defined what it means to be a MMOG. They have all the traits of a first mover including the risk taking involved in pioneering the area and the reward of large numbers of subscribers. That Everquest could wildly succeed against Ultima Online is not indicative of anything. The barrier to entry at that time was much lower than it is now. For a new game to compete well with Everquest it would have to be incredibly great. However, without investor backing, it is unlikely that such a game could be created.

Investors look at the data and see that games that are entering the market later than Everquest are having their lunch handed to them. Not enough money is being made. There are better investment opportunities elsewhere for the VCs.

Re:I know the answer

[Snowspinner]

Yes, I want to disagree.

Raph Koster, the lead developer on SWG, is a really intelligent guy who writes some of the most insightful articles around on game design. Unfortunately, as particularly proven with some of his decisions while working on Ultima Online, his insight does not reliably pan out in his game design.

I expect SW:G to be a game with a lot of potential that has so many initial flaws it scares off a lot of its customer base in the first year, and has a hard time winning them back once Koster is replaced with someone more capable of keeping a playerbase together.

Re:What is Lineage?

[will_die]

The problem with lineage is that most of thier sales are group accounts to cafes instead of individuals. So a cafe might have 10 accounts but thoses 10 accounts are used by 500 users, each with thier own character.
So do you count the number of accounts sold, or the number of characters?
This is slowly changing as more people get home connections.