Slashdot Mirror
Chinese Moon Base by 2012 - or 2006?
apsmith writes "Former congressman and House Science chairman Robert S. Walker has written some rather striking conclusions about Chinese intentions in space over the next few years, based on information received for the recent Commisison on the Future of Aerospace. Walker is convinced the Chinese are going all-out for a permanent settlement on the Moon within 10 years; apparently some closer to the situation in Japan think the first landing will be in only 3-4 years. Meanwhile the Economist says IT people are starting to focus on space as the next high-tech venue. Fortunately, despite NASA's neglect, we do have a few private missions to the Moon in the works."
It's amazing what people don't know about history isn't it. If the person that posted the parent to this thread wants to actually learn something about the Korean War and China's involvment in attacking a Western Power, this is a very good FAQ on the subject.
http://www.centurychina.com/history/krwarfaq.html
Err...that may well be how it was presented, but I think you'll find that the Russians had quite a lot to do with the defeat of Germany. Possibly more than any other nation (a hard thing for me to say, as I'm British), and they certainly earned their rest. And the scientists that helped with the American space programme were also captured German rocket scientists.
Cheers,
Ian
China has never attacked a Western nation
Do you remember the Korean War?
More to the point, do you remember the Korean War? It had little to do with China until the United States refused to respect China's desire not to have a repeat of 1940.
Remember that in 1940 Japan, under the guise of being neutral to China, fought their way up the Korean peninsula all the while constantly telling the Chinese to relax because all they wanted was Korea. The Chinese told them to stop at the end of the peninsula, to leave a Korean buffer between peninsular Japan and mainland China, and the Japanese said they would honor this. When they had taken the whole peninsula, they kept coming, disavowing the Chinese desire for a buffer. Still the Chinese waited and did not defend themselves. Once all of Korea was taken, the Japanese rolled over the Chinese border, and for five long years China was held by the fascist military regime of Japan.
So you'll have to excuse China for defending themselves when, scarcely ten years later, the United States announced that they were going to "help" the South Koreans recapture Korea. The US said that they would stop at the 38th parallel, and China said it would not get involved as long as the 38th parallel was respected. But when the 38th parallel was reached, the American troops kept rolling in a fashion reminiscent to 1940. They kept moving, and they were quickly approaching the top of the peninsula. Again, China said that they would not intervene so long as the US did not enter the mainland, and the US agreed.
So when American troops reached the top of the peninsula and kept on rolling, pardon the Chinese for thinking this looked a bit too much like the last time it had been invaded. America broke its word twice, at the same points at which the Japanese had broken their word. McArthur was known for hating the communist Chinese, at one point seriously suggesting that the US should rain 60-80 atom bombs down on China to make sure we get them before they could hit us. The American military was much too greedy and found the North Koreans too easy a target. The generals were (in typical American fashion) completely ignorant (that's different from being unaware) of Chinese perceptions of American action. While I feel sorry for the poor American soldiers who died, I also think the US got what it had coming when China struck back. The Chinese see their involvement in the Korean War as purely defensive, and I think that's a fair interpretation.
So yes, I remember the Korean War, and I would love to see the Chinese reach the moon second and build a moon base first.
I did not design this game/I did not name the stakes/I just happen to like apples/And I am not afraid of snakes-AniD
The cost to send 1kg to the moon will decrease with constant traffic. Also, and more importantly, the moon is not devoid of desirable resources. There are probably no rocks or metals that would be worth returning to Earth, but it is believed that there is plentiful naturally occurring H3, which should be instrumental in the furthering of fusion energy research. If China could get their hands on that supply of H3, it would be more than worth it to bring it back down to Earth, and there is a nearly infinite power supply sitting there waiting for them to construct a moon base, along with the physical resources that can be mined from the moon itself. And don't forget the fact that the moon has a gravity 1/6 of that of the Earth, so launching missions from there to other parts of the solar system would by much easier than from here. Perhaps shuttle everything essential to the mission to the moon, construct the launch craft at the moon base, and launch without all the gravity. It would definitely be a major advantage, both strategically and financially.
Never let anyone tell you it isn't worth it to go to the moon.
Lack of eloquence does not denote lack of intelligence, though they often coincide.
Actually, they can't. Their ICBM fleet has nowehre the range that the Soviet/US missiles have. The Chinese nuclear weapons were developed to deter their main ex-enemy, the Soviet Union. In fact, they almost came to a nuclear war in the late 1960's over some clashes on the Amur.
The Soviets also considered a nuclear pre-emptive strike on their nuclear weapons plant before their first test.
In the meantime the PLA's missiles have not been extended in range save for a very few missiles. They do have some Submarine base missiles but that would be tracked/destroyed by the vastly superior US Navy. They only have 3 or 4 subs.
The US government's assesment of Chinese nuclear capability is classified but there are lost of info on the net. They do pack a punch but their delivery range is very limited.
The dangers of excessive individualism are nothing compared to the oppressiveness of excessive collectivism
Having ICBM's is one thing, but building a rocket big enough for a mission to the Moon is quite something else.
The ONLY way the Chinese can short cut technologically to get to the Moon is to use someone else's rocket design, modernize the design, and build it for such a mission. Given the fact the Chinese have been warming to better relations with the Russian Federation lately, I wouldn't be surprised that China has bought the plans for the old Soviet N-1 rocket and using plentiful Chinese expertise modernize the design for vastly improved reliability, plus design a modernized version of the Russian lunar lander. The Russians were on the right track for a lunar mission but the lack of funds doomed their lunar mission projects.
The russians never pulled this off, but maybe a communist red flag next to the stars and stripes might knock the Americans off their high horse, or at least, wake them up.
No flag, but they did have the first landing, 2 rovers, and 24 unmanned probes which even returned samples.
In a lot of respects they beat us pretty well on the moon. I think the technical details of unmanned rovers and returning samples all remotely are very cool.