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Pentagon Lets You Bid on Terrorism?

Posted by ryuzaki0 on from the too-real-for-words dept.

Elysdir writes "DARPA is creating an idea futures market, the Policy Analysis Market, to try to predict events in the Middle East. See Bloomberg article for more info." Read this article. I mean it. This is amazing. Update: 07/29 14:45 GMT by J : The NYT story claims "The White House also altered the Web site so that the potential events ... that were visible earlier in the day ... could no longer be seen," but those example images are still being served: Jordanian overthrow, bidding on assassinations, cool graphics... Update: 07/29 16:44 GMT by M : Looks like the publicity was too much.

6 of 846 comments (clear)

  1. not just middle east by Ravagin · · Score: 5, Informative

    Ny Times article (free reg, stop whining) says it's not just for the Middle East. In any event, while I support innovative ways of fighting terrorism (as opposed to wiretapping everyone and giving the president imperium, etc) the idea of making money off of death is exceptionally disturbing.

    Says this is another idea from Admiral John Poindexter of, most recently, Total Information Awareness fame. Sounds like he might be a sick sick man.

    --

    Karma: T-rexcellent.

  2. Jim Bell by Ann+Coulter · · Score: 5, Informative

    Remember Jim Bell? Posted comments to the effect of setting up a system where you can bet on who will be assassinated. He got into deep trouble with the courts who tried to censor any mention of it. Here is some more information.

  3. Predicted in SF by AlecC · · Score: 5, Informative

    by John Brunner, in "The Shockwave Rider", based heavily in Alvin Tofler's "Future Shock".

    The principle is called Delphi Polling. It is based on the observed fact that the aggregate answers of a large number of people sufficiently knowlegeable to understand a question seem, empirically, to be more accurate than the anwers of any one expert. Even though the answers of any one non-expert may be wildly out, the errors cancel out to a good approximation of the correct answer. Futurologists have been using it for a while to predict trends, and it works better than tea leaves, crystal balls and just plain "informed opinion" i.e. guesses. The USN even tried it with flying a plane, and it worked there too.

    --
    Consciousness is an illusion caused by an excess of self consciousness.
  4. Like it or not, this stuff works. by Randatola · · Score: 5, Informative
    Look at the Iowa Electronic Markets, where people bet real money on the outcome of presidential elections and so forth. It has generally been more accurate than any poll. (Last presidential election was a rather unusual case)

    The book Blind Man's Bluff also gives a detailed account of how the lost submarine USS Scorpion was located. All the experts could only narrow it down to a 20 mile radius. With no other options, they resorted to taking real money bets from other submarine commanders on the probabilities of different scenarios. Result? The submarine was found within a couple hundred yards from where they guessed.

    Can you imagine some Navy officer going to his superiors at the Navy and explaining that we're going to try and find a submarine by having a betting pool on it? It sounds completely insane, and personally I can't believe anyone had the balls to suggest it. But it works. When people have a skin in the game, they tend to give their best, most honest appraisal. If it was up to me, I would require intelligence analyst types to participate in this kind of thing.

  5. Re:How... How... It's not a joke - it's real by securitas · · Score: 4, Informative


    I really, really hope this is a joke...

    Even senators thought this was a joke so you can be excused for thinking so. See the bold text from the rejected submission below - it's from the NY Times article.

    Poindexter's Middle East Terror Bookie Scheme

    2003-07-29 08:16:21 Poindexter's Middle East Terror Bookie Scheme The NY Times reports on DARPA's latest scheme: an options and futures trading market where you can bet on assassinations, toppling governments, instability and war in the Middle East (Google). The $8 million program is under the control of Admiral John Poindexter who brought us Total Information Awareness. The Policy Analysis Market starts taking registrants this week and betting/trading begins in October. Senator Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota, said the idea seemed so preposterous that he had trouble persuading people it was not a hoax.

  6. Pentagon Abandons Terrorism Betting Plan by galgon · · Score: 5, Informative

    As reported in Yahoo News The Pentagon has Abandoned its plan for the Terrorism Betting. My favorite quote from the story:
    "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," said Sen. Ron Wyden D-Ore.