Armageddon... in 2014. Almost.

anetic was among several to note a story making the rounds striking fear into the hearts of many. Armageddon will just barely miss us, so make sure to get your panic in the streets over with early.

Comments

A new scale?

[Azghoul]

There should be a new scale: The probability that a particular NEO will cause an article to be written up in main stream newspapers.

Seems like every year or less another "near miss" gets some play in the papers.

Who knows, maybe it's the same 3 or 4 objects that keep getting reporting on all the time...

Chances likely to change?

[Ed Avis]

The chances of a catastrophe are likely to become even slimmer once more measurements of the asteroid's orbit have been made.

Surely the estimated probability now will already have taken that into account? Or is the one in 900k chance quoted not a true reflection of what astronomers feel is the likelihood?

Re:Chances likely to change?

[Eivind]

Sure. But the mainstream doesn't understand uncertanity, or statistics.

Based on what we currently know, there's 1 chanse in 900K that it'll hit.

This also means that there's 899.999 in 900.000 chanse that it will NOT hit, and probably 850.000 in 900.000 that it'll miss by so large a margin that even a bit more observation now will tell us for sure that it'll miss.

So the article is likely rigth, if silly, the chanses really probably ARE very high that after a bit more observation, we'll be able to say for sure that it'll miss.

Re:Chances likely to change?

[dattaway]

Its all a matter of perspective. It just so happens a one in 909,000 chance is the same as one of us being in the upper floors of the WTC on 9-11.

Now we can all be scared.

Project Orion anyone???

[advocate_one]

Time to dust off those schematics for the Orion lifter... the only thing that has the capability of lifting enough nukes into an intercept course to hit it early enough to get a good deflection vector. Of course the eco freaks won't like the idea of Orion being nuclear powered...

Re:Project Orion anyone???

[Bertie]

I saw a Horizon documentary about this on BBC Four a while back during a bout of insomnia. It was absolutely riveting. The whole idea was so bonkers, and completely the opposite of normal engineering thinking. "Well, we're going to blast this thing into space using a series of nuclear explosions, so to take the impact it's going to have to be really big and strong. Let's build a spaceship the size of an ocean liner, then". Gotta love that sort of thinking.

Check it.

And posted in Askslashdot...

[confused one]

What should an enterprising geek stock an underground shelter with? What would /. users suggest?

Uh oh.

[FlukeMeister]

Note how the story doesn't mention the asteroid actually missing us. It notes that the probability of it hitting us is a little under 1:900000, based on current data.

Now, that doesn't mean the asteroid will hit us, and it doesn't mean it won't. It means that we don't know yet.

Still, the chances of this wiping out most of a continent are better than the chances of you winning the lottery. There, feel better yet?

Re:If you're not scared....

[Alan Partridge]

We should smack it anyway for the practice!

Why do they announce these things so fast?

[el-spectre]

The nasa page says that the calculation is based on less than 7 days of observation, but everyone is saying 'let us look for a few more months, it may not be a big deal'. Why don't they wait a couple of months before announcing this? It serves little to no purpose other than selling newspapers.

Re:Why Panic the Masses?

[Phantasmo]

Because anyone ignorant enough to do anything irrational upon hearing the news probably didn't hear it. They were too busy watching Frasier, Temptation Island, 700 Club, etc.
Most people don't watch the news unless it has something to do with Iraq, somebody getting shot or murdered, or one of their favourite TV shows.

Of course, a skilled preacher may be able to whip up a nice mob this Sunday. "THE END IS UPON US!"

how about a 1 in 10,000 chance then..

[maharg]

I'd be more worried about this one which is also rated 1 on the torino scale but has a 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting the earth.

Oh by the way, it's not due 'til 2101..

Re:But Granny I'm still kinda affraid

[Lonath]

The rock is said to measure approximately 1.2 kilometres (less than a mile) across - only one tenth of the size of the meteor thought to have wiped out te dinosaurs

You know what the funny thing is? IIRC, that meteor was about 6 miles (a bit less than 10 km) across. That means, this thing is 1/10 the size IN EACH DIRECTION which is more like 1/1000 of the size of the dino meteor. Or more like (1/8)^3, or 1/512 as powerful. OTOH that doesn't take into account relative velocities and such.

Nukes will not work for sponge-like asteriods

[maharg]

'Horizon' on the BBC covered this issue a while back - see http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/armagedd on.shtml

A quote from the link above:

Asteroids like sponges

Three years ago, the residents of Tagish Lake in northern Canada witnessed a bright explosion in the sky, as an asteroid burned up in the atmosphere above them. Jim Brook was lucky enough to find debris from the impact. The first thing he noticed was that it was far lighter than he expected it would be. Like a sponge, the chunks of debris were mostly air.

Dan Durdan makes his living by firing ball bearings at asteroid samples - meteorites - to study what happens when they are hit. When he tested samples similar to the Tagish Lake meteorite, he was surprised to see that, rather than shattering or being deflected, these less dense asteroids simply absorbed the impact of the blast.

These results were worrying. This could mean that many asteroids would not be deflected by a nuclear blast. Trying to deflect an asteroid with a blast might have no effect, and would keep it coming on its deadly trajectory.

The programme also covered an alternative solution (another quote..)

The power of the Sun

Jay Meloch has suggested a radical new way of dealing with a dangerous asteroid. He wanted a surer, more controlled way of diverting a large body - with a gentle push instead of a blast. His idea was to find a way of harnessing the biggest power source in the Solar System - the Sun.

In the same way as you can use a magnifying glass to set fire to a sheet of paper, you could focus the Sun's rays onto a point on the surface on an asteroid. The spot where the Sun's rays met would heat up, blasting particles of the asteroid into space. This would act like a rocket engine, and might be enough nudge the asteroid out of harm's way.

The scientific community ridiculed his suggestion - until Meloch received a phone call from someone who took his idea very seriously. The US military already uses collectors like Meloch's to gather radio waves. Meloch may well have come up with a suggestion that will one day save the Earth.

Mayan Apocalypse

[sabNetwork]

The Mayans predicted the apocalypse would be year 2012 CE, for astronomical reasons. Coincidence? Probably.
--

Re:Why did they name it 'double-Q-forty-seven'

[wirelessbuzzers]

From Revelation 8 (RSV):

[5] Then the angel took the censer and filled it with fire from the altar and threw it on the earth; and there were peals of thunder, voices, flashes of lightning, and an earthquake. [6] Now the seven angels who had the seven trumpets made ready to blow them. [7] The first angel blew his trumpet, and there followed hail and fire, mixed with blood, which fell on the earth; and a third of the earth was burnt up, and a third of the trees were burnt up, and all green grass was burnt up. [8] The second angel blew his trumpet, and something like a great mountain, burning with fire, was thrown into the sea; [9] and a third of the sea became blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed. [10] The third angel blew his trumpet, and a great star fell from heaven, blazing like a torch, and it fell on a third of the rivers and on the fountains of water. [11] The name of the star is Wormwood. A third of the waters became wormwood, and many men died of the water, because it was made bitter.

Now, the whole chapter's effects sound sort of like an asteroid impact, but interestingly the effect of Wormwood does not particularly sound like an asteroid. Some have interpreted it as a futuristic war, with [5] bombs, [7] napalm, [8] nukes, and [10] biological/chemical weapons. In any case, Wormwood has precedent as the falling star of the apocalypse. This unfortunately means that we can't name the thing Wormwood unless that probability is revised to 1-\epsilon.

Gut reaction

[paiute]

Yes, we have this same story twice a year. So how many years will it take us to figure out that even if the chances of a real strike are slim, the certainty of the undesirable outcome of the event should make us begin to experiment with ways to send Bruce Willis' greatgrandson out to nudge it aside? How far could we have gotten with the billions squandered in the Iraq farce?

Then again, we go out and vote to spend our money bombing a country that was of no threat to us. Maybe we deserve to have a big rock dropped on us.

Pertubations

[NickRuisi]

I was looking over the JPL's orbital elements and diagrams for this object (here), and I noticed the following:

15 March 2005: The object will be .082 AU from earth.
24 September 2012: The object will pass within 0.098 AU of earth.

I also noticed (if I am reading the orbital diagrams correctly) that the points where the object is closest to the earth coincide with the points where the object passes through the plane of the ecliptic. Since these are the Acending / Decending nodes of a solar orbit, wouldn't this point be ideal for a change of orbital plane? I'm thinking these near-Earth encounters may change the object's orbit somewhat, since surely the earth encounters will impart some delta-v on the object.

Anyone else up on orbital mechanics care to take a better look at the ephermis?

Re:To get boringly technical about it...

[Sphere1952]

"Only for a uselessly narrow definition of "probability"."

Nope. With a fair coin it is proper to talk of the probability being 50:50. The difference between a fair coin and celestial mechanics is that with a fair coin it is not possible to define an experiment which will determine the result in advance. In celestial mechanics it is not only possible, but very straight forward. The experiments will in fact be done, and that is the reason the "probability" will change over time before the date of potential collision.

The thing is that real probabilistic analysis is used in computing the pseudo-probability which is the odds 909,000:1. Taking the information at hand, they compute a volume of space through which both the rock and the Earth might pass through during the given time and then compute the probability of them both being at the same place at the same time within that volume. As the quality of the information improves the volume decreases and the pseudo-probability more accurately approximates the actual probability. The odds either get extremely large or closer and closer to 1:1. (I'm being sloppy here, and not talking about gradients. A real analysis would have different probabilities of being within different parts of an infinite volume.)

On the other hand, this is in fact boringly technical. Pseudo-probabilities are very useful, and it is only natural to call them probabilities in normal conversation. You only have to worry about the difference when actually computing the pseudo-probabilities.

What about stashing this one in orbit somewhere?

[Cloudface]

Every time of of these damn things whips by I hear the same story. "Wah, we're all gonna die hideous cannibal deaths in the freezing dark. Wah, it's going to kill every living being just like the other ones did. Wah, I want my robust space program back." Why be so negative? If we could park this boulder off the Earth's coast somewhere, does anyone have an idea of how much it could be *worth?* I vote for clamping a booster to it, then nudging it into place at one of the L-points. (Distracted by movement, he glances at television monitor set into the wing-shaped ebony desk on his metallic dias.) "Ah, Mr. Bond! So good of you to...join us." Heh heh heh.

Coincidence?

[coolmacdude]

I find it interesting that this is in almost the same timeframe as the predicted end of the world based on the Mayan calendar which states that civilization as we know it will end in 2013.

Re:Was it the Aztecs or Mayans?

[geekoid]

They also had a prediction that Jaguars would consume us all. They had a 12,000 years calender. You should look up the counting system they used, it is pretty interesting. coincidentally, there calender coresponds to when the magnetict north pole will be closest to the physical north pole, smething that happen, you guessed it, once ever 12,000 years.

Re:According to orbit diagrams

[higuy48]

I'm putting the right link here in case people clicking don't know to try little URL-modification tactics like I did. orbit diagrams

Another article about another asteroid

[reporter]

Please read the news article "Asteroid Might Hit Earth in 2880, Unless it is Painted" about another asteroid that might hit earth. The article suggests that painting the asteroid would deflect it from its course.

Re:According to orbit diagrams

[dr3vil]

The scary one, assuming I'm reading this right, is 2078-03-22.19, when it gets to within 0.11 earth radii of us. Surely that's far enough out that some slight changes to its orbit could nudge it closer?

Re:Probability of impact

[Bloodmoon1]

I agree it is interesting how much press this is getting for such a basically non-existant chance of a collision. However, I have to think anything that causes the public, especially the American public, to take any sort of intrest in space is a good thing. We've fallen a long way from our glorious Apollo and Gemini roots. I really hope China, the EU or anyone else just makes massive strides into space to force our government to seriously look up again to space. Or, alternatively, I'd be willing to risk a 1 in 10 colllision to make us at least get out there to crush asteroids. Though I have a strange feeling it would just result in most rich people/nations finding ways to survive an impact, instead of defending against it.

We seem to have lost touch with the stars and became much more focused on more trivial, Earth-centric problems recently. Hey, don't get me wrong. I'm all for saving the environment and national defense and all that, but all it would take is a good, massive impact to solve all of our problems here and leave our ruins for some alien civilization to possibly come across. Here's to the future...