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The End of Physical Media
L-s-L69 writes "The register is reporting that Forrester is predicting that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. They also predict that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as rather than by DVD or video by 2005. "
So here's the question: what effect do these predictions have on the ways in which companies in control of these industries approach their market? Do companies move to prevent the predicted move to electronic means or do they embrace it because of it's new seeming inevitability? Or has Forrester taken the very effects of its own findings release into account? And if so, might companies recognize this and try to undermine the research adjustment by acting differently than it otherwise would. Don't you just love how these silly little viscous cycles can come out of attempts at predicting trends in a market so easily controlled?
The article says that CDs and DVDs will become obsolete. I think this is wrong. There will always have to be at least one hard copy that can't easily be deleted. Moreover, it says that people have already started to shun buying CDs. People haven't stopped buying CDs, they are just buying more blank ones. For those who see no need to spend several hundred dollars for an MP3 player in their home stereo or car, and then spending all the time and frustration installing it and syncing it with their PC, burning downloaded music onto CDs is a very viable alternative.
10 Bits= $.25
100 Bits= $.50
110 Bits= $.75
1000 Bits= 1 byte
I share your beefs with the user experience, but those can and probably will be resolved as the technology is refined. Cable box DVR's, e.g., could allow local caching for smoother rewind and fast forward.
You tell me how "whilst" differs from "while," and I'll stop calling you a pretentious jackass.
My guess is that broadcasted (cable/airwave) media and physical media will always coexist to fit different niches in the marketplace to fulfill different needs.
Ita erat quando hic adveni.
Are highly doubtful in general, much of the time. I'd really hate to say it, but a lot of it is corporate-funded pandering and dreaming out to try and force the market in a certain direction.
I think most people lost their faith in the powers of technological prediction when whole the flying cars by 1990 fell through.
Well yes, that's their hope. If you can't store it on anything than you have keep paying for your connection and pay again every time you watch something.
The media kills your wallet with a financial death by 1000 cuts.
What's more is the fact that "on demand" viewing is a push model disguised as a pull model. They who control the pipe get to control that which is available to you for your "demand." Think Clear Channel and the pop music machine become endemic to all media.
Of course this will only work if your media is taken from you or rendered usless by force, because, of course, what you want downloadable media for in the first place is to record it to permenant media for viewing, well, on demand. Like maybe on your boat 10 miles out of sight of land or your mountain getaway cabin or wherever.
Sure people want the convienience of on demand media from home, so they can record the shit on cheap, free and open storage media.
Never underestimate the bandwidth of a cupboard full of tapes, CDs and DVDs. Not to mention the fact that such are true on demand media.
KFG