The End of Physical Media

L-s-L69 writes "The register is reporting that Forrester is predicting that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. They also predict that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as rather than by DVD or video by 2005. "

Comments

Really?

[mgcsinc]

So here's the question: what effect do these predictions have on the ways in which companies in control of these industries approach their market? Do companies move to prevent the predicted move to electronic means or do they embrace it because of it's new seeming inevitability? Or has Forrester taken the very effects of its own findings release into account? And if so, might companies recognize this and try to undermine the research adjustment by acting differently than it otherwise would. Don't you just love how these silly little viscous cycles can come out of attempts at predicting trends in a market so easily controlled?

Re:Really?

[Anonymous Coward]

I think they just project the last five years onto the next five years, and if you do that then the findings aren't unreasonable. On the other hand you could point out that PDF has been around for ten years and grown explosively, but hasn't replaced printed media yet.

I think what these guys keep confusing is that CONSUMING and COLLECTING are two different mindsets, and physical media will always have a market for those of us who like to accumulate.

Re:Really?

[QuackQuack]

Pretty much.

Who keeps track of what Forrester and Gartner predicted in the past? It would be pretty funny to see what they predicted the world would be like now five years ago. IIRC, Gartner said that we'd all be using NT now, and Linux would be nowhere.

I think the real value in these analysts are for companies who these trends favor. For example, a company who owns a piece of digital music sales can say "Forrester says 1/3 of all music sales will be digital." This helps attract customers and investors.

Re:Really?

[smallpaul]

PDF is less convenient (to read) than physical media. But MP3s are more convenient (to listen to) than physical media. That's why people rip even CDs that they own into their MP3 players

People who collect MP3s are also collectors. I definately feel more like a collector when I occasionally log onto a P2P system then when I am in a CD store. While I am in the P2P system it is pure hunting and gathering with no concern about cost. When I am in the CD store it is about deciding which of the CDs are worthy my hard earned money (and let's not forget the space they take up in my CD rack).

On the one hand it is cool to look at my rack and see the stuff I own summarized nicely. But on the other hand, physical media is a pain in the ass. CDs and DVDs are really poorly designed media. Way too fragile. For DVDs: too many silly restraints about skipping FBI warnings and advertisments. For CDs: not enough information density.
If I could leave that all behind I probably would.

Video On Demand

[notbob]

I've used the on demand viewing for at home, but haven't been 100% happy with it.

The whole pause, fast forward, etc... is laggy and inaccurate. I don't like it.

I don't like only being able to watch it for 24 hours, give me lifetime viewing for 15$ then we're talking.

As of right now it's just a waste of money as always.

Is this really a good thing?

[Eric Ass Raymond]

Is this really a good thing?

I mean in the worst case scenario this will only mean pay-per-view and draconian DRM.

I agree, except...

[mschoolbus]

The register is reporting that Forrester is predicting that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years.

I wouldn't go as far as to say 'sales'...

No more paper too!

[rajinikanth]

Paperless offices are a reality! No more paper used at offices! News at 11.

Obsolete or just used differently?

[immel]

The article says that CDs and DVDs will become obsolete. I think this is wrong. There will always have to be at least one hard copy that can't easily be deleted. Moreover, it says that people have already started to shun buying CDs. People haven't stopped buying CDs, they are just buying more blank ones. For those who see no need to spend several hundred dollars for an MP3 player in their home stereo or car, and then spending all the time and frustration installing it and syncing it with their PC, burning downloaded music onto CDs is a very viable alternative.

HomeChoice

[deepstephen]

I used to have HomeChoice at home, and it was excellent. The only reason I stopped using their service was because I moved out of the area they cover, and I miss them very much.

They use a DSL line with a set-top box which splits the signal into two parts: one for video on demand, and the other to plug your computer (or network) into. The video service has an archive of TV programmes in all kinds of genres, as well as music videos and the most recent news bulletins from a variety of sources.

Plus you can also 'rent' movies from them, just by clicking a few buttons. You get to play it as much as you like for 24 hours and the cost is comparable to (if not better than) the Blockbuster round the corner. You can pause, fast-forward, rewind, no problem. It works great.

It's fast, very usable, convenient, cheap and it works. I have seen the future and it is video on demand. And no they're not paying me to say this. :-)

Re:news?

[Anonymous Coward]

We're single, we can still have sex.

Sure ...

[Durandal64]

Yes, physical media is definitely going away. Researchers are looking into using storage media that only exist in metaphysical planes of existence to store data. Rather than clicking a mouse, the user meditates intensely and mutters a small prayer to Hardus Discus, the god of data storage. They've already found that delusional maniacs can hold up to ten times as much data as a standard hard drive platter.