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Fortune Magazine On 'The Biggest Game In Town'

Thanks to Fortune Magazine for their feature on why games are seriously big business. The introduction reads: "Music? Sales down. Hollywood? Hit or miss. Tech? Flat. No wonder everyone wants to be in videogames", as the piece goes on to throw out some interesting statistics: "Within three weeks [of release, Madden NFL] grossed $100 million -- two million copies sold at $50 a pop. In roughly the same period, the summer hit movie Seabiscuit returned $78 million." The amount of hours spent in front of games is also highlighted: "On average an American will spend 75 hours this year playing videogames, more than double the amount of time spent gaming in 1997 and eclipsing that of DVD or tape rentals today." But despite the article's EA-hyping, it points out the cyclical nature of the industry and failures, too, such as The Sims Online, to which "...just under 10,000 are now subscribed."

42 comments

  1. Glossing over the obvious point by Dancin_Santa · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If you are a large game house like EA with solid games like their EA Sports line, you can expect big returns for yearly updates.

    Try to break into the business without having serious funding. It's almost impossible.

    The only thing that is clear from this article is that them that's got will get and them's that's not shall lose. And it still is news, I guess.

    1. Re:Glossing over the obvious point by NanoGator · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Try to break into the business without having serious funding. It's almost impossible."

      It's not that bad. Lots of opportunities around. I, for one, wouldn't mind working on a shareware PocketPC game. It's not like you'd need a whole lot of resources to get that going. You've got the net as a delivery mechanism etc. Okay, it won't make you insta-rich, but it's an avenue to explore.

      Console gaming is an entirely different animal. Start small.

      --
      "Derp de derp."
    2. Re:Glossing over the obvious point by eamo1 · · Score: 1

      Hi, I hope this is the correct place to post and apologies if it isn't but does anyone know of game developers in Ireland using the PS2 Linux dev kit Thanks Eamonn

  2. Uhh.. length of game/movie play? by QuantumG · · Score: 4, Interesting
    On average an American will spend 75 hours this year playing videogames .. eclipsing that of DVD or tape rentals today.

    You really can make statistics say anything you want. Nevermind that a movie lasts 2 hours (maybe 4 if you're an Oliver Stone fan), whereas a game is required to supply 50+ hours of gameplay or it's considered a waste of money.

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
    1. Re:Uhh.. length of game/movie play? by JM+Apocalypse · · Score: 1

      I'm a lower extreme. Gameplay = ~0 hours. YAY!

      Do you remember those games that allowed 32,000 levels? I don't ... but if you do, can you cut me in on it?

      Yeaaah.

      But you also have to realize that movies are much better made than games, and offer much more enjoyment. Unless you are a half-life super-geek (You know who you are), you don't usually play a game repeatedly. But, you often see people repeating movies over and over again ... maybe because they like the movie, maybe because the repeat button is stuck on their DVD player. Either way, this doesn't happen very often with games.

      --

      - - - - - - -
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    2. Re:Uhh.. length of game/movie play? by asjk · · Score: 2, Insightful
      On average an American will spend 75 hours this year playing videogames .. eclipsing that of DVD or tape rentals today.

      You really can make statistics say anything you want. Nevermind that a movie lasts 2 hours (maybe 4 if you're an Oliver Stone fan), whereas a game is required to supply 50+ hours of gameplay or it's considered a waste of money.

      I'm not sure I understand your objection. Sure the average time for the two activities differ in their unit length--I get the point that we see more movies but play videogames longer. I think the salient point is that these pastimes are reaching parity in monetary outlays and the total time of engagement. Many of my friends (older folks) are stunned to hear videogames have better sales then first run movies. This would be important points for advertisers, say or investors. The datum is valid for some uses but not others.

    3. Re:Uhh.. length of game/movie play? by PainKilleR-CE · · Score: 1

      There are a few things to take into account:
      75 hours means the average person is playing 2 games a year. *cough*I have a hard time keeping to 2 games a month*cough* (and the latter may illustrate a point, my girlfriend plays more than 75 hours every 2 months and I don't consider her much more than a casual gamer).

      Also, the amount of time watching movies would include movies purchased, movies seen in theaters, and movies watched on TV (incl. premium TV such as HBO). Most people I know that regularly rent movies rarely get to watch every movie they rent, unless they keep them longer or watch them in a marathon the night before they have to go back.

      --
      -PainKilleR-[CE]
    4. Re:Uhh.. length of game/movie play? by Matrix272 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Either way, this doesn't happen very often with games.

      I'm sure that the 2 million people that bought Madden 2004 will only play 1 game of it, then toss it aside and wait for the next game. I played Metal Gear Solid through about 4 times, and MGS2 through twice. My estimation is if $7.50 == 2 hours of entertainment for movies, then $50 == 13.3 hours of entertainment for movies. Correct? In that case, spending $50 for a game, even if it's only a 25-hour long game, is much more of a bargain than going to the movies.

      On the other hand, buying a DVD is a slightly different story. If you watch a movie 5 times over the time that the DVD works, then it's 10 hours for $20... which is $2 == 1 hour. In that case, it's EXACTLY equal to spending $50 == 25 hours. Hmmm... maybe it's not so different after all.....

      --
      "It's better to have a gun and not need it than need a gun and not have it." ~ Christian Slater, True Romance
  3. Cheap! by JM+Apocalypse · · Score: 2, Interesting

    You also have to realize that a huge amount of games are made for the sole purpose of promoting a movie or other product. Most are made very quickly, and you can tell by the quality (** cough ** Harry Potter ** cough **). But, companies like id are there spending years making games, and create a solid game, but making small amounts of profit out of it. I have tried playing these games, and it looks like very little effort even went into them. Join with me, fellow /.ers, and boycott games!

    Well ... at least until Doom III comes out. (YAY)

    I don't understand what is the big draw in these games. People play replicas of previous year's games, with a few minor changes, and are willing to shell out $50 for each minor revision. If software was like this, then there would be 20,000 Microsoft's running around.

    You also have to keep in mind that 1/3 of the games are from Microsoft ... so I am partially correct.

    - fin -

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    Orppf urp mf y.ppcxn. yflcbi otcnnov C am yflcbi yr n.apb Ekrpatv (Dvorak -> Qwerty)
    1. Re:Cheap! by AltaMannen · · Score: 1

      I think the previous Harry Potter game was pretty good actually and it wasn't made to promote the movie, that's the same as saying the book was written to promote the movie.

      And I think it is time for id to start a new franchise that is not doom or quake. I see a lot of complaining about other companies making sequels to popular games but almost noone complaining about doom and quake beeing sequelized.

    2. Re:Cheap! by PainKilleR-CE · · Score: 1

      But, companies like id are there spending years making games, and create a solid game, but making small amounts of profit out of it.

      Yeah, that's why Carmack has a handful of Ferraris and builds rockets (to carry people into space) in his spare time, because they're making small profits, off two of the best selling PC franchises of all time combined with the best-selling FPS engines.

      --
      -PainKilleR-[CE]
    3. Re:Cheap! by Schnapple · · Score: 1
      I think the previous Harry Potter game was pretty good actually and it wasn't made to promote the movie, that's the same as saying the book was written to promote the movie.
      If a game came out to promote Order of the Phoenix then this would be true - but make no mistake, the recent games out at the same time as the movie are indeed movie tie-ins. And a closer analogy - the mass market standard sized paperbacks released alongside the movies are made to promote the movies.
  4. MMOG Cashflow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The Sims online is a failure with just under 10k people paying $10 a month?

    That's still $100k a month. Even paying for the huge pipe the game's servers need, there's still gonna be left over cash.

    People tend to forget games like Evercrack, DAOC, even SWG, are huge cash cows.

    Maybe if Sims Online drops below 5k users then there may be some issues with supporting constant developer updates, but even then, the game still makes enough money for it to live on.

    1. Re:MMOG Cashflow by NonSequor · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I could be wrong, but I don't think that the profit is as good as you would imply. In order to keep subscribers in an MMOG, you have to continue to employ artists and programmers to provide new content and fix whatever problems there may be (MMOG players are the bitchiest of all gamers). On top of that, these games have very long development cycles and so the company needs a lot of cash to offset the development costs.

      --
      My only political goal is to see to it that no political party achieves its goals.
    2. Re:MMOG Cashflow by QuantumG · · Score: 1

      This is such a bad model. An MMOG should a be place where people can go and make their own content. It should be a world full of creativity. Instead, MMOGs are populated with "entertainment" pumped out by artists and programmers.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    3. Re:MMOG Cashflow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The bandwidth, customer support, server infrastructure, continuous content generators network professionals etc mske the break even point for most MMOGs to be 50,000 subscribers.

      The Sims Online reputedly cost $46million dollars to create. This is why it has become the prime example of a flop in the games industry

    4. Re:MMOG Cashflow by bigman2003 · · Score: 1

      My guess is that over 1/2 of those current subscribers just haven't figured out how to cancel the automatic payment from their credit card.

      I paid for a few extra months because I kept forgetting to remove it...and 'Sims Online' was constantly within my radar. I would guess that many parents out there who subscribed for their kids just forgot about the whole thing...but it keeps charging them every month- but the kids aren't playing it.

      --
      No reason to lie.
    5. Re:MMOG Cashflow by bmyers · · Score: 1
      MMOs are *very* expensive to run. It's not just the network pipe. It's:

      1) *peak* bandwidth (not average bandwidth)

      Typically any ISP will charge for peak, not average bandwidth. That means if a MMOG has a very low bandwidth usage for 23.99 hours a day, and then they get just one big usage spike (like when a patch is released) then the peak usage is charged for the whole month.

      Bandwidth costs are often calculated as 20 to 30% of gross monthly operating costs -- maybe $10,000 - $20,000 per month as a SWAG?

      2) Customer Service Reps (CSRs)

      Gotta pay the support folks. That's a 24x7x365 = responsibility, so you typically figure 4-6 actual people to fill one CSR slot. If you have only 10 CSR slots, that's 40-60 salaried people.

      Probably another $50,000 per month gone.

      3) Office rent, AC, legal staff

      I dunno -- call it $10,000-$15,000 per month? maybe more if there's a lawsuit going on? I've heard that UO always has at least 2 lawsuits (usually frivolous) in the pipeline, but they still gotta defend against them.

      4) "sunk" costs -- development, advertising, marketing

      What was it - about $40 million in total costs to create TSO? So that's all gotta be recouped.

      5) Taxes -- corporate tax rate was 35% last I checked...

      6) Collection losses -- credit card purchases don't always go through, cards expire, etc. Assume 5% per month - or $5,000.

      When all is said and done, TSO is probably barely breaking even, if they are lucky! They are probably going deeper into the red every month, unless they fire all their CSRs (which will definitely kill them).

      I suggest you take a look at book by "Developing Online Games" -- it does a pretty good job of breaking down the actual costs of running a MMO, which is far more costly than you might realize.

      So SWG, DAoC, and EQ are probably making some decent monthly profit, but not as much as you might think.

      That's also why no publishers are willing to risk any money on backing an MMO that doesn't expect to get at least 80,000 paying subscribers with a break-even within 3-6 months. It's also why there's a huge number of EQ-clones or UO-clones and not much else, because no publisher wants to take a risk on an "unproven" genre.

      Of course, the non-commercial MMOs don't have any of these issues, so that's where we'll see the most innovation. But none of them will become cash cows without running into the same difficulties.

      --

      #man woman
      segmentation fault - core dumped.
  5. Advertisers have known about this for a while now by tessaiga · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Just as Ford shelled out to have 007 drive an Aston Martin in "Die Another Day", car manufacturers will go out of their way to provide prototype designs and specs for their new muscle cars for inclusion into games like Grand Turismo. As the article points out, gamers spend enormous amounts of time with a good game, which gives your product much better exposure than a 30-second TV commercial or a print ad.

    --
    The bold print giveth, and the fine print taketh away ...
  6. Sims Online soon to join Motor City Online? by KNicolson · · Score: 1

    ...in the Offline Online Game graveyard? I see that The Sims Online seems to have died horribly. We're now getting all the pre-release hype about Ultima X: Origins (or whatever), but will that be yet another EA online flop?

  7. You would think... by QuantumG · · Score: 1

    that they'd at least try a free download / longer trial before they gave up.

    --
    How we know is more important than what we know.
  8. Yuch. by luekj · · Score: 1
    EA sucks, at least right now they do. They should stop sucking and start losing some money like civilized gaming companies. Sheesh.

    --
    Many Thanks,

    Luke

  9. Re:Advertisers have known about this for a while n by ArmyOfFun · · Score: 3, Informative

    HERE is an article describing exactly what you are trying to say (I think). It was either posted here or on Fark a few weeks ago.

  10. $50 by LazyBoy · · Score: 4, Funny
    Within three weeks [of release, Madden NFL] grossed $100 million -- two million copies sold at $50 a pop.
    The obvious answer is to charge $50 for movie tickets and CDs.
    --

    If Chaos Theory has taught us anything, it's that we must kill all the butterflies.

  11. 75? by August_zero · · Score: 2, Insightful

    On average an American will spend 75 hours this year playing videogames, more than double the amount of time spent gaming in 1997

    Dear God! When Wind Waker came out I spent like 50 hours in a weeks time with it, I picked up Disgaea last Thursday and I was at 30 hours by Sunday.

    Either 75 is a really low estimate (thats what, an hour and 15 min a week?) Or I can expect some friends and family to be ambushing me with an intervention pretty soon....

    --
    On Wall Street they say "buy low, sell high" On the pad we say, "buy high, sell high" Isn't that somehow better?
    1. Re:75? by FrenZon · · Score: 1
      Either 75 is a really low estimate ...
      Their average would be across ALL Americans (hence the 'On average an American...'), which includes your ma, da and all sorts of other people who never actually play games.

  12. Great. by Braintrust · · Score: 1

    Now does anybody have a job for me in this supposedly booming industry?

    One that I can actually live on?

    I'm fluent in over six million forms of cummunication... sigh.

    --
    Years later, a doctor will tell me that I have an I.Q. of 48, and am what some people call "mentally retarded".
    1. Re:Great. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you know how to spell in any of those forms of communication?

  13. Economies of Scale by FluxCapacitator · · Score: 1

    Now that games are selling more and becoming a common past-time, will it ever reach a stage where they will eventually become cheaper? Will we start seeing games available on average for $25 a piece or will a new model for distribution be required for costs for the end user to be reduced?

    1. Re:Economies of Scale by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We already see this price model for PS1 (new titles come out between (10 and 40 with only the top titles at 40, most around 10-20).

      Ok so it's old tech. New tech will always be expensive. Sony is trying to alleviate the pressure though by dropping to $40 first party titles.

    2. Re:Economies of Scale by hibiki_r · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately, lower prices have little to do with game costs, or with how many people buy it. The way games are priced nowadays is really simple: "Whatever the market can bear". If going to the movies costed $50, nobody would go watch one, since the average moviegoer desn't believe that price is right, and would switch to other forms of entertainment. Thus, the studios/theatres keep the prices lower.

      The videogame publishers believe that if they released new games at $20-30 a pop from week one their profits would not increase at all. The people that wouldn't buy the game for $50 will just buy it later, when it is discounted in the "platinum-series" or "Nintendo Classics" or whatever. Didn't you notice how games that are still selling well, like Halo, haven't been discounted on most major stores? Besides, game makers like Nintendo and Sony have been saying that the only thing they feared in "the console wars" was not cheaper consoles, but cheaper games, since if a company starts releasing their latest-and-greatest games for $30 to outsell the competition, everyone else will have to do the same, and all you'd get is lowered profits for everyone.

      All of this, and the always increasing cost of making flashy and complicated games, leads to the only possible conclusion: Since the publishers believe that cheaper games aren't good for them, we won't see cheap games any time soon.

    3. Re:Economies of Scale by Derkec · · Score: 1

      There is limited truth to this. The trick comes in when someone has a middle of the road game that will compete with other middle of the road games for the gamer dollar. If one company drops their price by five or ten dollars they may be able to steal market share from a competitor. If this starts happening, then competitive pressure will push down prices. Unfortunately for gamers right now, we seem to really want individual titles and don't walk into the store and pick up whatever looks good and is cheap.

      That said, I did walk into my local shop two weeks ago unsure of whether I would get Soul Calibur or F-Zero. I went with SC, but a $10 differance might have changed my mind. Honestly though, by Christmas I'll have both.

  14. P2P influences? by neglige · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Music? Sales down. Hollywood? Hit or miss.

    Now, how much does filesharing influence this? For music, I'd say quite a bit. Not so much for movies - it's l33t to have the latest blockbuster on (S)VCD, even before the premiere, but in the end - if you liked the movie - you still go to the theatre and watch it on the big screen. Supposedly true for music CDs also, but I guess to a lesser extend.

    What about games? Yes, you can find virtually any title on (most of) your favourite P2P network. Documentation may be missing, or may be included as a PDF, but there are commercial box version available that do not offer much more than that, especially since the advent of DVD cases...

    So either John and Jane Doe take delight in d/l movies, but not games, or the number of people playing a game are much larger than the sales figures. If you have a pirated version of the game, the drawbacks are much lower than those of a pirated movie. And I'm not even convinced that the majority uses the pirated games as a "full demo" and buys the game afterwards, if they like it.

    Just my 2 cents. I would be nice to have numbers so a definite statement could be made... :)

    --
    My cats ate my karma. They also wrote this comment.
    1. Re:P2P influences? by PainKilleR-CE · · Score: 1

      Now, how much does filesharing influence this? For music, I'd say quite a bit. Not so much for movies - it's l33t to have the latest blockbuster on (S)VCD, even before the premiere, but in the end - if you liked the movie - you still go to the theatre and watch it on the big screen. Supposedly true for music CDs also, but I guess to a lesser extend.

      I think the music industry screwed themselves out of this by treating MP3s the same as they would full piracy, and by charging nearly as much for downloaded music as for the CDs. Many people already couldn't hear the difference between the two, but when they charge nearly the same thing and you don't even get the CD, there's no incentive for them not to pirate it. The perceived value of a product should be higher than what you're charging for it, not lower. People may like CDs because they last longer than tapes, but they still don't think most albums are worth $15-20. Movies are very different. DVDs are obviously higher quality to most viewers, and the movie theaters usually offer a much better experience than most home viewers can get. The worst thing P2P has done to the box office is allow people to see the movie for themselves to decide whether or not they should spend $7 to see it in the theater, wait for DVD release, or never watch the movie again. Not to mention that most people still don't have the bandwidth to download the movies, even in DivX formats, and so much of the trading of movies is offline, as it was before P2P became big.

      What about games? Yes, you can find virtually any title on (most of) your favourite P2P network. Documentation may be missing, or may be included as a PDF, but there are commercial box version available that do not offer much more than that, especially since the advent of DVD cases...

      So either John and Jane Doe take delight in d/l movies, but not games, or the number of people playing a game are much larger than the sales figures. If you have a pirated version of the game, the drawbacks are much lower than those of a pirated movie. And I'm not even convinced that the majority uses the pirated games as a "full demo" and buys the game afterwards, if they like it.


      The biggest selling games are console games, which have a much bigger audience, and the average technical expertise is much lower (not really a hit against them, just that it can often take quite a bit of knowledge just to get a computer game running). Despite what it would seem to many people, most don't have their XBox or PS2 modded to play pirated games in the first place. Many XBox/PS2 owners don't even have a PC, which that any pirated games they could get would have to come from someone else, who either owns the games, knows someone who owns the games, or can download them.

      --
      -PainKilleR-[CE]
  15. SWG Success by Ka0s23 · · Score: 1

    As was recently revealed Star Wars Galaxies reportedly has already over 275,000 subscribers, (sorry I dont have a link to article right now, perhaps someone else can supply). The SWG subscription is what most consider a little (a lot) on the high side at $15 dollars a month. Which comes out over $4 million per month just in subscription fees!

    Being an avid fan of SWG, I can only see this number steadily increasing, especially if the developers can continue to fix problem areas of the game. This isnt even considering the amount of money they will make when releasing the planned space expansion (2004-2005?), which will almost certainly be bought by every subscriber (at $40 a pop, another $11 million in sales at least, im sure more by then.)

    Its easy to see how when you hit the right market in the gaming industry, the sky is most certainly the limit! Besides with how bad this summers "blockbuster" movies were, who wouldnt rather stay at home in front of a nice video game?

  16. Free trials won't help by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I played a portion of the beta.

    Enough to realize the game was just tedium to make money. It was a job. I have a job. It pays me well. I don't want another job, I want to have fun. Sure it was nice you could go on, talk to some friends, sit around and chat, buy up a house. But most of the game I could just play on the offline version and have more fun, more control over other people. You can cheat, which sadly drives a lot of the players. I can't say that I've known many serious Sims players. Inevitably, everyone I've known who has played it, has gone and cashed up to build the mansion for their sim to play in. Sadly that's teh only goal I've seen of the game, is to become successful and build up career, but what's the point with free money (which is why I don't use the codes). No, most of them don't sit down and play for hours on end.

  17. What kind of comparison is that? by Matrix272 · · Score: 1

    "Within three weeks [of release, Madden NFL] grossed $100 million -- two million copies sold at $50 a pop. In roughly the same period, the summer hit movie Seabiscuit returned $78 million."

    Yeah, and Spiderman grossed $114 in 3 DAYS. The Matrix Reloaded grossed $94 million or so in 3 DAYS. And since when is Seabiscuit a "summer hit movie"? No offense to horse-lovers out there (you perverts), but I don't know anybody who's even slightly interested in it. I don't know anybody who's seen it, or wants to see it. I know more people that have had root canals done in the past 3 weeks than have seen Seabiscuit, so does that mean that everybody and their brother will want to be dentists in the next few months?

    --
    "It's better to have a gun and not need it than need a gun and not have it." ~ Christian Slater, True Romance
  18. Geek Wet Dream by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I can't believe I'm the first to post this (and my apologies if I'm not).

    Quoting the article: "The Jedi Knights challenge the ruthless Federation"

    Developers take note: *that's* a game. Chewbacca vs. Worf, Vader vs. Janeway, Jake Lloyd vs. the Enterprise-E... the possibilities are endless.

    Create that game, EA, and you'll be rolling in money plucked from the wallets of hyperventilating geeks.