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Diamandis Predicts X-Prize Winner Within One Year
drix writes "Things are moving along for the X-Prize. The FAA is currently in the process of approving a launch site for competitors, several of which are set to launch "within the next few months." Perhaps most exciting, Peter Diamandis says he expects a winner within one year."
From statistics you can learn one thing. That is, whenever anyone claims something is definitely going to happen within a short time frame, it almost certainly won't.
"Duke Nukem Forever will be out in time for Christmas 1999!" - 1999
"Doom 3 will be out sometime next year." - 2002
"By 1999, most homes will have access to broadband."
But I'm not being pessimistic. I think the X Prize WILL be won within "the next decade." The promise is there, but I think the next year will contain a lot of launches, but a lot of mid-air explosions and failures too. It's natural, it happens in every industry.. software and hardware.
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I agree with Diamandis on this one. We are about to see the first vehicle not initially developed for government reach space. And, as the X-15 was a precusor to the space shuttle, I expect the X Prize contestants to be the precusors to a variety of orbital vehicles.
Instead of a one size fits all vehicle, though, I expect to see various vehicles developed for various uses. We've learned the shortcomings of that approach.
NASA predicts it will take a number of years to develop the OSP. If they do get bogged down in bureaucracy too much, they'll wind up losing that race to private entrepreneurs. That will radically change the way humanity does work in space.
Even if all doesn't go well, I expect to see a broad range of humans boarding space ships before I die (probably 30 to 45 years from now).
"Beer is proof God loves us and wants us to be happy." -- B. Franklin
we have forgotten that there are things more important than human life -- that there are risks worth taking.
Thank Jeebus someone else still feels that way.
I have a simple answer for the "space travel is too dangerous" crowd: Don't do it. If you think flying into space is too much risk for the reward then you are welcome to stay on earth for the rest of your (hopefully long) life. However, please don't assume that everyone feels the same way you do, and when other people want to take extraordinary risks for what they think are extraordinary rewards, keep out of the way and let them do it!
0 1 - just my two bits
No, actually, it's NOT difficult to get things into space; we've been doing it since 1957. Heck, we pretty much use the same techology now. The difficulty with space travel, I'm afraid, isn't technical, it's organizational.