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Diamandis Predicts X-Prize Winner Within One Year
drix writes "Things are moving along for the X-Prize. The FAA is currently in the process of approving a launch site for competitors, several of which are set to launch "within the next few months." Perhaps most exciting, Peter Diamandis says he expects a winner within one year."
Or do they have to come down as well?
From my dad's dealings with NASA, and from my own experiences with the kinds of robust computer systems involved, I think it would truly be an accomplishment for any private enterprise to successfully launch into space, do something productive, and potentially come back, manned or unmanned. It is just remarkably difficult to get things into space!
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and send Darl McBride up? We could make a community effort out of this.
:)
Harder than that. They've got to reach "space" twice. Using the same vessel. Although I believe the definition of space is a little subjective. It is high enough for NASA to consider them astronauts, but I believe it is not high enough for a satellite launch.
Will these cheap and private enterprise driven launches lead to many more privately owned satellites in low earth orbit? Just wondering as this would have many very practical applications as well as leading to intense crowding in LEO. Just a thought.
From statistics you can learn one thing. That is, whenever anyone claims something is definitely going to happen within a short time frame, it almost certainly won't.
"Duke Nukem Forever will be out in time for Christmas 1999!" - 1999
"Doom 3 will be out sometime next year." - 2002
"By 1999, most homes will have access to broadband."
But I'm not being pessimistic. I think the X Prize WILL be won within "the next decade." The promise is there, but I think the next year will contain a lot of launches, but a lot of mid-air explosions and failures too. It's natural, it happens in every industry.. software and hardware.
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Right now, it's a clear lead for Scaled Composites, at 57%, according to the poll. I admit, I haven't followed this really closely--except for the occasional Armadillo story--but I think I'm going to have to look into Scaled Composites a bit more. Although it would be really cool to see Carmack win, I kind of doubt it will happen that way.
They discussed "manned" exploration, so I would assume they want to bring him/her back down :)
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One interesting proposed idea was to turn these launches from spaceports into paid-entry "events" - with different competitors competing for the best performance etc. When you think about how much money is made in other racing events, this may not be such a bad way to make this technology pay..
"You lied to me! There is a Swansea!"
How much for him to be the first to get blowed up real good in a private spacecraft?
Yeah, I'm jealous of vapid pretty boys who get everything they want from a befuddled society. Deal with it.
--- Ban humanity.
They have to complete a suborbital flight (100 km IIRC), and then turn around and do it again with the same spacecraft within 2 weeks.
"Fifty million Americans can't be wrong," said Rep. Billy Tauzin. Gore - 50,999,897 Bush - 50,456,002
I agree with Diamandis on this one. We are about to see the first vehicle not initially developed for government reach space. And, as the X-15 was a precusor to the space shuttle, I expect the X Prize contestants to be the precusors to a variety of orbital vehicles.
Instead of a one size fits all vehicle, though, I expect to see various vehicles developed for various uses. We've learned the shortcomings of that approach.
NASA predicts it will take a number of years to develop the OSP. If they do get bogged down in bureaucracy too much, they'll wind up losing that race to private entrepreneurs. That will radically change the way humanity does work in space.
Even if all doesn't go well, I expect to see a broad range of humans boarding space ships before I die (probably 30 to 45 years from now).
"Beer is proof God loves us and wants us to be happy." -- B. Franklin
The X Prize contest calls for launching a manned craft to 62 miles (100 kilometers), generally considered the cusp of space, and returning it safely to Earth. And then doing it again within 14 days.
So it does have to come down, and then go back up, and back down again... safely.
"Well, after all, it's hardly rocket science is it?"
But seriously, these people are sending perhaps 1000kg (3 people + capsule) to 100km. They are *not* going into orbit. The "delta-vee" they need is a small fraction (1/10 at a guestimate?) of that needed to reach Low Earth Orbit. And still it might kill them - they've got guts and they want to prove it.
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As the article notes, it is quite likely that someone will die in this endeavor. But private -- the first step to ubiquitous -- space flight is a cause worth risking, and losing, one's life for. If I were given the opportunity, I would accept in an instant.
Our society has lived for 110 years without a frontier, and in that time we have forgotten that there are things more important than human life -- that there are risks worth taking. Living without a frontier has sapped our courage, our will to freedom, and our sense of proportion. But frontiers aren't opened without pain and loss and death. In the end, though, they're worth it, for what they do for us as individuals and for us as a civilsation, and that's as true of the next (never say final!) frontier as of the earthly ones.
Beside the grandeur of the universe and the infinite potential that we unlock when we open it to humanity, what is life? A valuable and unique thing that we must stand ready to sacrifice for the dreams and goals that make humanity worth its place in the world. The last and most valuable coin we have to bet for one more step toward the ultimate prize: A wider and stranger and more glorious human universe.
--G
Even assuming he's right (and I think he's being a bit too optimistic), it will still be a LOOONG time before anyone does anything commercially viable in space. Only when someone figures out what endeavors in space that makes money we'll see real innovation to get there, driving down the cost immensely. Until then, it'll just be "space geeks" doing it just to prove it's possible.
I know that space has been profitable for some (TV satellites, for instance), but MANNED spacecrafts have so far had such ridiculously high cost that any gain would be dwarfed by that cost. I know that's part of what the X-Prize is designed to remedy, but realisticly it will take "big business" to drive down the cost.
So what can we get from manned spacecrafts that couldn't just as easily be handled by automated crafts? Science perhaps? Practically any form of production would be handled better by onboard robots, IMHO.
Black holes are where God divided by zero
The X-Prize has proven that you dont need to spend huge amounts of money to get really promising technology on the road. Ok, it doesnt deliver the payload/height yet, but compare the $10 million against the $600 million per shuttle launch - and to be honest, I prepared to guess in the long term we will see more out of the X-Prize than the next Shuttle mission.. NASA are great at somethings, but genuine cheap space transport needs to come from a competitive commercial environment.
"You lied to me! There is a Swansea!"
Although I'm rooting for Armadillo Aerospace, I visited the Scaled Composites website a few days ago. They seem to be very close to a successful launch. They've been doing all sorts of drop/glide tests of their spaceship, and they've seen a lot of success with those tests. Their crazy shuttle-cock decent seems to work fine. (This is especially amusing after all of the slashdot posts about how a winged successor to the space shuttle is the worst idea ever.) Also, they outsourced their engine construction which, seeing the kind of trouble Armadillo is having with their engines, might turn out to be a winning strategy.
No, not really, it's a hybrid engine he's chosen. They're generally reckoned to be much simpler and far safer than the solid rockets that the Shuttle uses; even amateurs fairly regularly build them, and with generally good results. Provided he can keep it pointing in the right direction he should be fine.
-WolfWithoutAClause
"Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"But, but, but BIG BUSINESS is EVIL!!! Any corporate conglomerate that digs its meat-hooks into space will surely do so on the backs of the people, and manage to destroy the interstellar environment in the process! And just like they exploit aliens here on earth, what's stopping them from enslaving aliens from other worlds?
Don't you tell me there's something that the Geek Collective can't do with idealism and free (beer AND speech!) software alone! I refuse to believe it! That's blasphemy, and such heresy should be moderated accordingly!
"Ask not what your country can do for you." --John F. Kennedy
I think this is important to note. Diamandis talks about this being comparable to Lindburgh's trans-atlantic in being "a mind-shift breakthrough", but I think he's wrong. While it will be a hell of an accomplishment, and may encourage more private efforts, I doubt that it will be a "mind-shift breakthrough" for the general public.
I think most people will think of an private "edge of space" flight as mildly interesting, but probably not worth a mention at the neighborhood bar. If anything, it'll invite inaccurate and condescending (tho' understandable) comparisons to Evil Knieval. To really get that mindshift breakthrough, some private effort will need to get a human into orbit. I think that's what most people will think of as "real spaceflight".
I hope someone is willing to fund additional levels of X-Prizes, at least as far as LEO.
Perhaps most exciting, Peter Diamandis says he expects a winner within one year."
I would love to see an X-Prize winner before regular space shuttle flights resume.
GF.
Lots of petrified grits
I know this is out of character for a Canadian, but I do have to say I have a soft spot for the Canadian Arrow project. http://www.canadianarrow.com
I have been following it closely, and all of their tests have been reasonably successful, they have their astronaut team now, and they are almost done training. They've finished engine testing, and are even preparing for secondary business ventures when the project is complete (read "spacediving" on their page.)
So currently now, I am just waiting for them to do their launch (which if I remember correctly from the latest clip of them on "Daily Planet" they were saying was going to be early to mid 2004, barring no complications.
The Da Vinci project looks good as well, but I just haven't paid that much attention to it.
Oh well, no matter what happens, hopefully this will get the publics attention, and these companies will continue development further into even more spaceworthy vehicles (ie orbital, etc.) with the money they make from tourism (Assuming they make money. ^_^)
~ kjrose
I've been following the X-Prize competition quite closely. There are two contenders that might win the X-Prize before this year's end: ScaledComposites and CanadianArrow. I belive Burt Rutan has planned the prize's required second flight for this 13th December, just in time to celebrate one century of flight. Rutan's company seems to be the most advanced competitor (I'd bet real money they win the X-Prize), though the canadian team has that cool prospect of extreme skydiving.
This race is essentially becoming one of Rocket (Armidillo) vs. Spaceplane (Scaled). Might NASA take a hint from this in the developement of thier next generation of spacecraft. From my experience with American politics they are likely to try the one that has previously exploded in their face.
--"Sorry for the inconvience." Gods Last Words to his Creation
DNA, So Long and Thanks for all the Fish
we have forgotten that there are things more important than human life -- that there are risks worth taking.
Thank Jeebus someone else still feels that way.
I have a simple answer for the "space travel is too dangerous" crowd: Don't do it. If you think flying into space is too much risk for the reward then you are welcome to stay on earth for the rest of your (hopefully long) life. However, please don't assume that everyone feels the same way you do, and when other people want to take extraordinary risks for what they think are extraordinary rewards, keep out of the way and let them do it!
0 1 - just my two bits
karma police: arrest this man, he talks in maths; he buzzes like a fridge, he's like a detuned radio. [radiohead]
I'd bet on Rutan also for a first flight. However, Carmack may end up furthering the goals of the X-Prize more than Rutan.
Carmack seems to be focusing on basic engine refinement - making engines cheaper to build and run. Getting mass into space isn't hard, it just requires a lot of money for the vehicle and the fuel. If he is as successful with this as he has been in refining 3D rendering algorhithms, his effect on space access will be profound.
No, really! Check out the following link: http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/space/09/30/china.wan hu/index.html From the sounds of it, the explosion certainly sent him onto outer space, and he (most likely) flamed down in the outback... ...can the X-Prize be awarded post-humously? ;)
No. He didn't do it again within a fortnight...
"Information wants to be paid"
Yes, if the corks move at hundreds of miles per hour, and are each capable of sinking a ship on collision.
Point is, while individual satellites are small, you cannot simply consider their size. If you were launching another vehicle through its orbit, and expect to cross it at exactly 5:03 pm plus or minus 10 minutes, then what you need to consider is an arc formed by the said satellite moving at high velocity for 20 minutes. Now repeat for each orbit you are likely to cross. A "crowded" orbit simply means that you have increasing difficulty scheduling a safe launch, because the overlapping arcs make your launch window very small. Finally, consider that satellites don't just orbit. Sometimes they fire their boosters to correct decays in their own orbit, each of which would throw off your timing somewhat. Consider also that while you may not care if your payload is destroyed in a collision, the US government might be rather irate if you destroyed a spy satellite of theirs, or bring down the International Space Station.
But mainly, any such accident would be so expensive (mostly in terms of money, but sometimes in terms of human lives) that even if the risk of collision is low, any potential spacefarer must still be very careful. It is certainly worth far more attention (and NASA does track objects and debris in orbit) than corks in the ocean.