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Death of the PDA?
An anonymous reader writes "The Economist has an article proclaiming the death of the PDA. Smart phone sales are predicted to overtake PDA sales this year."
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I don't see the point in a distinction. Is it a PDA with phone capabilities? Is it a phone with PDA capabilities? Either way, if this happens, I wouldn't consider it a "death" but an evolution in what technologies and packagings people decide fits their lifestyles the best.
Just because a radio was integrated into a clock doesn't mean that radio died then, although maybe I wish it did.
I agree that this is going to happen inevitably, but I'm not sure it's a great thing for everyone. I'd love to see a smartphone with an open platform, maybe even running linux, someday. Hackers are writing a lot of cool software for PDAs.
I doubt that we're going to get the same thing on phones, though. Mobile phone makers seem intent on keeping everything proprietary, and wireless companies are making money from charging content providers for access to their networks. I think history is going to repeat itself, yet again. Hardware makers are going to try to lock users with proprietary software. It'll probably be years before I'll be able to run my own software on my own phone. Stupid, huh? That's the computer industry for you.
I'm not anti-microsoft. I'm anti-bullshit. Which means I'm anti-microsoft.
The laptops of today do all the things a desktop is supposed to do, but occupy less space.
All proclaim the death of the desktop computer!
The PDAs of today do all the things a laptop is supposed to do, but occupy less space.
All proclaim the death of the laptop computer and, indirectly, the desktop computer!
The phones of today do all the things a PDA is supposed to do, but occupy less space.
All proclaim the death of the PDA computer and, indirectly, the laptop computer and, indirectly, the desktop computer!
We've been told that sub-notebooks are about to replace the notebook and "desktop replacements" are about to replace the desktop for years now. It hasn't happened yet.
Will smartphones replace PDAs?
When smartphones, like the latest batch of Ipaqs or Toshibas, support bluetooth, wifi, multiple I/O capable expansion options (CFII+SDIO) and an extensive list of peripherals, sure.
Maybe "laptop" and "desktop" and "PDA" describe nothing but a form factor. But that's probably the best argument there is for their mutual survival. There's no reason the PDA form factor with PDA size screen will just magically disappear leaving a gap between laptop and phone.
Handspring Treo 270 $249.99 with rebate, $349.99 without
T-Mobile Sidekick (Danger Hiptop) $249.99 with rebate, $299.99 without
RIM Blackberry 6230 $199.99 with rebate, $299.99 without
End of Line.
Phones are oldschool anyway and less geeky than a remote control. I use Xten's IP phone on my WiFi powered IPAQ 5455 to dial for free through open access points.
I want a PDA that can transfer data using WiFi for high speed, BlueTooth for short range and GPRS (or similar) for great coverage. For voice, I will continue to use tiny phones that are carry-friendly. I will never buy a PDA/phone that requires me to a) bring it in a bag or b) hang it in my belt.
the product isn't going to -die-. this is how convergence devices are -born-.
PDA market growth is just going to come in the form of convergence devices more and more. some consumers will see it as new phone tech on their next PDA, most will see it as new PDA tech on their next phone. but neither product will 'die'. dedicated PDAs will simply be relegated to markets where having phone capability isn't worth the cost.
in the same reactionary vein one could argue that mp3 players are going to 'die' because of the proliferation of that core functionality showing up in PDAs and cellphones. (without near killer-app sized storage though).
i think the obvious explanation is consumers are demanding a single 'thing' that is their interface to mobile digital information. be it 3G phone, PIM, mp3, email, or mobile data storage. then there's society: having a cellphone is not 'geeky', nor is having a cellphone with PIM functionality.
but having a cellphone + mp3 player + PDA certainly still is.
and practicality: having to manage the batteries on 3+ digital devices is a headache. particularly when you are generally using only one or the other.
my ideal convergence device:
embedded Linux-based OS (for custom programming)
full bandwidth 3G phone (w/ 1m CCD, 24fps video capability)
CF type2 slot
built-in WiFi (802.11b is fine)
short range FM transmitter (for car usage without a dongle)
built in HD ~6gB (preferrably magneto-SRAM)
usb2.0/firewire
OSS PIM
mp3 audio software
mp4/divx video software
tabletPC-style graffiti interface, with automatic translation for text-boxes would be good too.
no more hunt and stab with the stylus for url input.
no SD, no MemoryStick -- no DRM at all thank-you-very-much.
battery: li-ion, rechargable via usb/firewire/dc adapter. ~10 hrs running time.
size: about 4"x2.5".
attachable secondary battery, camelback style, for long trips/flights would be great too.
right now one pays:
~$275 for the mp3 player and storage
~$150 for basic PDA
~$175 for a capable 3G phone
would i pay $600 for all of this rolled into one? most certainly. hell i already spent $200 on the pda and $140 on a nex2e and 512mb CF card. if i get a decent cameraphone i'm out another $150 at least. then there was another $50 for the wifi adapter for the pda.
to be able to have all that functionality in one widget is worth at least $150 by itself. particularly if it has respectable battery life.
// "Can't clowns and pirates just -try- to get along?"