More Looks At Far-Off 'Longhorn'

b17bmbr writes "According to eWeek, the first builds are out, with an SDK. The Register notes: 'Microsoft builds leak regularly, Microsoft knows this, and Microsoft knows that the wider the distribution of the software, the faster it's going to spread all over the internet...The timing is impressive for an alpha build of a product that is not scheduled to hit the streets for another two years, and which could quite easily stretch to three.' Methinks this is just vaporware." And Cleverone writes "Several days before PDC 03' attendees will obtain their copy, screenshots of the new build have already made their way to the net. For those inquisitive few, the build stamp is 6.0.4051.0."

Comments

Uh...

[DrEldarion]

Methinks this is just vaporware.

Vaporware? You think the next version of Windows is vaporware? Somehow I don't think Microsoft is going to hype a new Windows version and then never come out with one. "Sorry! That project got killed! You'll have to stick with XP!"

-- Dr. Eldarion --

Re:Uh...

[Jack Auf]

I think what the original poster meant is that Microsoft has a long history of leaking/releasing screenshots and tidbit about upcoming products when they know damn well that the product won't be available for many months if not years. So in that respect it is "vaporware" - the product won't see public release for at least a year and a half.

Microsoft has a long history of doing this - Exchange, MSSQL, Windows NT2000 & XP, SMS, etc. Why do they do this? To prevent existing customers from changing products. Example:

Tech: (product n.n) sucks ass and is unreliable. We should dump it for (other product).
PHB: But the MS rep told me that (product n.n+1) is on the way and going to be released "Real Soon Now(tm)".
Tech: They told you that to prevent you from switching to something that actually works.
PHB: The MS rep promised that it would be out by the end of the year.
Tech: Which really means the end of *next* year. Maybe. Maybe the end of the year after that.

You see how that works now? They lie to keep their customers locked in and on the hook. I have seen this first hand many many times.

Re:Uh...

[Speed Racer]

Vaporware? You think the next version of Windows is vaporware? Somehow I don't think Microsoft is going to hype a new Windows version and then never come out with one. "Sorry! That project got killed! You'll have to stick with XP!"

The name Cairo springs to mind.

Microsoft is in a tough spot with this one

[Crashmarik]

Theyr'e talking about a 2006 release for longhorn. Operating system updates have traditionally been nice cash cows for them. The same is true for office. Now, no one feels a pressing need to upgrade their office suites. Office 2003 is not very compelling. Anyone who sends me an encrypted document and expects me to spend nearly a grand so I can read is going to get a rude document back in plaintext.

So, they have their next upgrade is due in 2.5 years, their competitors are upgrading at an ever faster and regular pace (witness apple 4 upgrades in 2 years the latest being 64bit). It becomes a little bit obvious why they are leaking this.

The problem now is they will promise whatever they think the customer wants to hear at this point. When it comes time to ship they will need an OS that delivers features while still maintaining backward compatibility. Microsofts installed base has become the anchor around its neck. If they do big feature changes that obsolete products no one will upgrade, if they don't no one will upgrade.

OSS has the same problem when picking up new features but it doesn't have the same petty extortionists trying to sell the same thing all over again.

Re:Quick Version Info

[bogie]

"Windows Longhorn will feature radical changes in the GUI, maybe making todays' Windows XP look like Windows 3.11 in comparison"

Somehow I find that really hard to believe. If these screenshots are even sightly Representative of the way MS is going then its going to look a lot like XP with just different colored/sized widgets and maybe a stupid "infobar" that most people will disable because it takes up 30% of your screen. I know MS is holding some visual aspects back, but there is nothing I've seen that's far off from what has already been made by the modding community.

Will it be different then XP, Yes. Will it be some radical shift that someone working with XP won't even recognize? Doubtful. MS has invested too many years in getting its users used to the way Windows works. My guess for the GUI is XP & 1/2, ie more "things you can do with files" will pop up when browsing folders and of course a different theme and wallpaper. Remember that last radical shift GUI-wise was win 3.x to 95. The only thing massively different between 95 and XP gui-wise is the Start Menu. Underneath there may be a lot going on, but on top MS can't go too crazy because secretaries need to be able to find their programs and my docs folder just as easy as they did with XP and 95.

"I personally think MS is putting a lot of eggs in one basket with Longhorn. If it's a failure, MS will be hit hard by it, but with the market dominance they have, they're probably sleeping well at night anyway."

But like you inferred they can't really fail can they? I mean when 90% plus of all desktops ship with whatever OS you want how can you fail? Once these new desktops ship you'll need to upgrade all your apps etc and the treadmill will continue except for the 10% of users who realize that there are alternatives. MS may fail in a technical sense if they somehow fuck up Longhorn, but given that they have so much time I don't see how they could. Worst case they scale back features because they a)don't work or b) aren't wanted by beta testers, and then they ship win2003 plus minor updates as a desktop.

Isn't it great having a monopoly?