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Technology Spending On The Rise
securitas writes "After the technology industry's so-called nuclear winter that has resulted in thousands of lost jobs over the last three years, the New York Times' Steve Lohr reports that technology spending is finally increasing (Google / mirror). Much of the investment in hardware and software is spurred by the natural corporate replacement cycle, but the positive change offers a glimmer of hope for techies everywhere. IBM CEO Sam Palmisano says that IBM plans 'to add 10,000 workers in fields of emerging demand over the next year.' Based on IBM's current Linux advertising campaign and market projections, this will probably mean hiring staff who are knowledgeable about Linux and open source software. Is this just a blip as some analysts believe, or is it the beginnings of a resurgence for the technology sector?"
After over a year out of work I managed to snag a job a few months ago with a good company. What I see starting to happen is some strengthening of the hardware market. Since most Slashdotters are software people, I don't know how far that will lag hardware. But it is certain that once people start upgrading their old boxes, sooner or later they will need new applications to run on them.
Seems to be mostly organic growth, but IT, from my perspective (outsourcing company) is making a comeback. We're actually hiring people now, which is a shock. And in numbers. Foreign workers don't seem to be too big of a problem right now because of the knowledge/service gap, and Canadians aren't taking US jobs because of the relative dollar. Things actually are looking good right now. Of course, this is one man's perspective.
My guess is 4-5 years. By that age, the machine will be almost too slow to do lots of stuff. Developers, such as myself, won't be very productive on old machines that take forever to run the newest software development tools.
to hire 10,000 new employees. The important question is what country will these 10,000 new employees be in, if you know what I mean,
Wake up people.
Hardware is almost completely put together by machines - no jobs for humans at all.
Software is rapidly becoming more and more self repairing and remote or centrally managed - no jobs there. And open source is free, that's a hobby not a job.
How exactly does corporate spending mean jobs again? Oh yea, it doesn't.
And don't forget the new business mantra "We're hiring, just no Americans, we're not stupid".
- Adam L. Beberg - The Cosm Project - http://www.mithral.com/
Separately, where I work still has two of the original three PCs purchased when the company was formed. The third was water damaged beyond safe repair.
Seriously, there should be a lemma or something on Moore's Law that states that because of bureacracy and the pile up of data the business world will always buy technology on a cycle. Seriously. Monitors get old, keyboards get too mungy, your data storage needs an upgrade. Most corps, for upkeep reasons, buy machines in bulk. They probably waited longer this time (due to the recession and all) but still that was three years. That seems to be they average.
No one should be surprised by this. Likewise, no one should be surprised when the computer buying cools down in a year or so. Why? Because you only need so many PCs.
What is music when you despise all sound?
But it is certain that once people start upgrading their old boxes, sooner or later they will need new applications to run on them.
Why?
KFG
you hear is the record federal deficits sucking the capital out of the economy and stunting growth. See the 80's for historical precedent. And the 90's for what happens when the deficits are covered. I wouldn't bet on any recovery with the current policies in effect.
>>But it is certain that once people start upgrading their old boxes, sooner or later they will need new applications to run on them.
.BOMB, most companies dont do that. Just wait.. in a few years many, many companies will use it. My reason is that they'll hire competant Linux 'users' that will get open-source software in and cut the companies bottom line. And that's good for everybody.
KFG>Why?
Because most companies run Windows. You have an engrained outsourced techs (what I do) reccomend Windows on everything because it breaks down. That equals more money for us. Also, people need the newest version of XYZ program (Office for example). To run Office 2003 on Win95 equlivalent hardware is asking for a mutiny.
And since Linux has grown much since the
. . . people purchase boxes with new capabilities or more processing power, and they usually want new applications to take advantage of those features.
Why?
People buying new boxes to run their old applications faster does occur sometimes, but isn't the historical norm.
Why?
I have not proposed anything. It is not unreasonable, however, to question both historical norms and historical behaviours and assuming historical norms might well get one into trouble.
So, since we're having a bit of trouble over low level questions let me aim one slightly higher above the horizon.
What feature of the new systems (other than speed) do you see as opening support for new apps that answer some need of business?
One can also ask ( and bear in mind that this is a different question) what app do you see business perceiving some need for that the new machines allow that the old ones didn't?
One thing that seems apparent to me is that one of the possible attributes of a new app over an old from the business point of view is that it takes fewer people to implement and maintain than the old one. In the context of jobs newer more powerful machines with better apps may well mean fewer jobs for people.
This has also been the historical norm for sufficiently large quantities of "history."
Do you propose a new historical norm?
KFG
people are about to buy less powerful boxes that are easier to manage, and show a significantly lower TCO.
count on it.
... hi bingo
What feature of the new systems (other than speed) do you see as opening support for new apps that answer some need of business?
Massive amounts of data storage capacity for the buck. Storage capacity growth has been increasing at greater than Moore's Law rates, and at the same time we have been accumulating 800 MB of data per every man woman and child on the face of the Earth every year. The need to manage all of this with software is a staggering business need, and will lead to lots of new software development.
Another area in computer hardware that has been increasing at ridiculous rates is network bandwidth. This has been increasing faster than even storage capacity. The problem with taking advantage of this has been entrenched industrial concerns. Eventually, although maybe not this business cycle bandwidth growth will trigger ANOTHER software revolution where people will truly become walking network nodes. When that happens most offices will totally disappear.
The fact is I think we haven't seen anything yet, and the Internet boom was just the first and weakest wave of what is yet to come.
You have a good point. However, those with Linux knowledge will have a head start. I have provided a personal experience to explain my point:
My boss recentley asked one of the network admins to install Linux on a laptop just for testing, as a possible consideration for a company-wide client.
I'm not in a technical position, but I got a call from this network admin asking me, "I just installed Linux, but I can't login to the administrator account, can you help me?"
I went over and found that he had "administrator" in the login field. I tried not to laugh and explained it was not good practice to log into the X window system as root. After he logged in as root despite my warning, he wanted help logging into an NT domain. I mounted a Windows share for him using the command-line, but he didn't understand why you could not select the domain when the user first logged in.
This guy is very competent at his job, but even with all the Linux GUI tools, Linux still takes a different mentality. Once you have the grasp of that, you do o.k., but for some administrators, the shift is not an easy one.
Dell has Intel religion, no matter what. Serious whitebox sticker slappers. Also, are they moving too much support to India?
Sadly, management and bean counters (the ones that generally end up having the final say in what servers are bought) don't care about this...that's why they hired sysadmins they say...and here's a clue for you...IBM is one of the biggest offshore outsourcers...especially to IBM India...
SGI has serious marketing problems.
No, SGI has serious market problems. they can no longer sell hugely expensive workstations to hollywood studios. They have seen their market shift from selling proprietary workstations/servers with a proprietary *NIX (IRIX) to commodity intel hardware with high end GFX cards running Linux. They were forced to change their market strategy because their customers began shifting to Linux. Lucky for them they started to offer Linux machines before their market disappeared. Their problem is they have to compete with the likes of IBM, Dell, and HP/Compaq in the x86 Linux market and they're being asked to do it on a much tighter budget than they ever had...
Now, Sun is starting to see the same thing happen. Their primary market (scientific research) is starting to see a shift to Linux and they are left with a proprietary *NIX that is behind AIX in almost every way. Solaris 9 is a good step in the right direction, but they still don't have a good JFS!!!
Yes, the trades have historically been based on "trade secrets," although this has not always been the case and as you note this has changed.
For some reason the tradition of blacksmithing is one of the fields where this has happened the slowest. Perhaps because its own history and traditions that are unique from that of other crafts. No one ever considered basketweaving as magic.
The last great craft trade secrets were the formulas for laquer and porcelin. Being able to read books about and take lessons in any craft from a master of such has been nearly ubiquitous for a couple of centuries.
In the sciences, of which computing is a branch, complete openess has been the norm nearly since the time of Pythagoras (magic again).
This is, at least in part, because to have one's science recognized one must, of necessity, publish.
Only the invention of mediums that allow publication without human readability has allowed the promologation of "hidden" mathmatics.
KFG
Things are looking pretty good in Software too. Over a year ago I had to take a job in Michigan because there was nothing here in Seattle -- even though my skills are current and I have tons of experience. I worked there for a year and then came home (even though I could have stayed there). I really didn't want to spend another winter near the Great Lakes.
In the last two weeks I have had three interviews (two in one day) and I have another interview tomorrow. I have people calling me saying things like "We found your resume in our database and we were wondering if you could send us an updated copy?"
I would say things are looking up...
- -
Are you an SF Fan? Are you a Tru-Fan?
I agree with the parent, As a college student, I would welcome an economic resurgence, hell I may even admit bush was right. I think that the turnaound can only be claimed if the unemployment rate goes down.
As for spending, GW Bush is the most profligate president since the vietnam war. (Article login req.) I am most concerned with the fact that while we may have recovery now, will we have social security when my mother retires, will my family be able to afford insurance, will I see my social security? While I am all for Keynesian Economics I would realy like to see that we have enough money to take care of our elderly and have enough prosperity to share with my generation and the gernerations to come.
Did Glenn Beck rape and kill a girl in 1990? gb1990.com
I don't know about your market but here, in the SOHO market, over spending is going up. I can't tell you how many times I've lost bids because my price is too low.
... it definatly wasn't "better" ... instead of a simple network storage device they used a whole server :(
... WAAAAAY up.
Example - a small office wants a network. They want to share files and printers. They want a central location for files that can be backed up easily and taken off site. They have the PCs and will never have more then 5 at the site, currently they have 3 -- two with XP home and one with Windows 98.
My bid? $3000. This was cost of the cable, running, the router, a network storage device and a cdrw installed in one machine for the backups.
The winning bid? $12,000. Other bids? $15,000 and $22,000.
I know the 15k and 22k bids included some insane server setup situation. The 12k bid had a setup not far from mine
So in this case, spending went up
The ultimate network admin tool needs HELP!
getting better?
will see. there are other factors:
1) previouly unemployes persons now getting jobs to replace all the men and women who get to go to the desert and die for oil.
2) The war machine will create an increased demand in certian secotors, as well as the supporting sectors.
The president can have a huge impact on the economy. Perhaps Bush should make some efforts to institute programs to get people working. Interior stuff, then I'd be impressed.
As much as People hate to here this, making the internet open to the public sparked the last boom.
I have grave doubts that Bush would have opened it up the same way. I'm pretty sure if he had his hand in it, it would have been opened up to corps. probably through some FCC like liscensing.
This is not a Dem vs. Rep statment. I base this on Bush's history.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
Businesses use technology as a competitive advantage.
Indeed, but it must actually be a competitive advantage to confer competitive advantage. Businesses are notoriously poor at understanding this point or selecting the right technolgies.
Although this often creates jobs to support their mistakes (such as investing heavily in Object Oriented database products or Microsoft platforms when superiour free ones are available. My knowledge of vi and mathmatics confers a tremendous competitive advantage to me over my competitors who must support MS Office) such jobs do not last. May I point to your own unemployment status?
Skyscrapers proped up on cinder blocks do not stand long, no matter how impressive they look when new.
Which also brings up the issue of whether we are going to consider building such skyscrapers as desirable jobs, and then rebuilding them when they fall. Is this the creation of wealth? Less stitches more riches?
However, I can say that new capabilities will mean a business would upgrade hardware, install new software, hire workers, etc.
Well, as has already been pointed out it usually works the other way around. People want apps that their hardware won't run so they have to invest in new hardware. We are speaking in the context of companies that are investing in new hardware, but as yet no apps. This strongly suggests this is simply a maintainence issue, not a true upgrade issue, except, perhaps, to increase the speed of their current apps.
However, that is not always the case. Technology also creates new capabilities, which creates jobs.
Yes, but usually fewer jobs overall. They are also typically transfer jobs. In the context of this discussion we're talking about IT jobs, not the delivery jobs you posit.
In the past year have you even applied for a job with UPS, or are you waiting for another good IT job to open up?
If a new technology created more shipping jobs ( not likely actually. A 20% increase in shipping from one company often simply means another transfer of jobs from a competitor, not an increase in overall jobs, and requires a 20% increase in items to be shipped. Without that increase the added efficiency is used to reduce jobs, which is what happens when everyone aquires the "advantage") and as a result you could never get a job in IT again but could work in the warehouse as a "hand" would you consder that a good thing?
There's a lot more to the question of jobs than just the question of jobs.
Indeed, there's even the question of jobs.
Now that's a long thread.
KFG
You're forgetting about the gamers (you know, the people whose sigs always include their CPU. motherboard and video card specs) and movie "sharing" community. Games eat up CPU, but even more than that, DVD ripping and re-encoding to SVCD or whatever is brutal.
But you're right; for things that are worthwhile uses for a computer, almost no client-side apps make the user sit and wait for the computer to finish thinking. Nowadays power users run 10+ apps at a time, ripping and playing back MP3s, or maybe showing a movie in a window, and downloading a bunch of stuff at the same time. Even developers (previously the folks who could say "yeah but I have to compile my big studly app that takes 30 minutes on my big mofo desktop") now have tools that avoid the compile-from-scratch step in most cases.
What we really need is more bandwidth. DSL still costs exactly as much as it did 5 years ago. So do telephones. So do cable modems, although they aren't as retarded as they used to be (no more cable down + dialup return). Do that, and all of a sudden hoarding "shared' files doesn't make so much sense. Are you listening, RIAA and MPAA? Stop suing children and start suing telco monopolies for making video on demand over the internet such a pain in the ass just so they can make big bucks for their CEOs! Where's my 100MBps fiber for $20/mo? Why not?
Machiavelli stated, in The Discourses I believe, that the time it is most dangerous for the powers that be is not during repression but during relief from repression. It seemed that the decimation of the baby boomer generation had been a repressive era particularly for technologists -- primarily due to the sexual dynamics surrounding engineering professions in the era of sexual liberation and women's liberation. The end of female boomer fertility was a time when the primary source of a lot of that oppression, misled sexual power of young women combined with testosterone overload of youthful males, was being relieved and the thumbscrews were being loosened on the techs. What I didn't expect was what happened: a whipsaw pumping up the techs and then popping their bubble. Machiavelli didn't really have much to say about this weird circumstance. What is interesting is that it does make a kind of perverse sense to do that to the folks that might start getting some of their standing back after a lifetime of disenfranchisement -- keeps them discombobulated. Then there is the problem of what to do for an encore if you can't keep the thumbscrews tied down after the whipsaw. If it worked once then why not try it again? Hopefully you can keep whipsawing until the boomer tech males are near retirement and unable and/or unwilling to do anything about their lifetime of displacement and disenfranchisement from their culture, fertility, territories and wealth. The outsourcing craze and H-1b craze are a part of this but I think the global elites may have to really pump things up again if at all possible, and try to whipsaw everyone again to avert Machiavelli's Rule again. If that is the case then theForesight Exchange claim REBOOM is in for a quick rise soon.
Seastead this.