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Earth's Asteroid Risk Downgraded

Posted by simoniker on from the i-was-worried-for-a-while dept.

xanthines-R-yummy writes "Relax, everyone - the risk of a gigantic asteroid colliding with Earth just got smaller! Nature reports: "A new survey revises down the likelihood of a massive asteroid hitting the Earth by 20-30%. We're only due to collide with rocks larger than one kilometre across roughly once every 600,000 years, it concludes." Whew! What a relief!"

3 of 231 comments (clear)

  1. I feel so safe by Atragon · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Wow, we're only slated to be hit by a rock bigger than 1km wide every 600,000 years...

    Man, I guess I won't have to worry about any rocks smaller than 1km big, it's not like they'll do any real damage.

  2. Re:Okay, so we don't have to worry... by cgranade · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That still gives you 100 yrs, right?
    Seriously, tho, that would be one of statistician's largest pet peeves: thinking that because outcome X has not occured at all in a period in which it is predicted to occur, that X is overdue to occur. IIRC, this is the Gambler's Fallacy. Somehow I'm reminded of the joke where three statisticians go duck hunting. First one shoots, and misses- too high. Second one shoots, and misses- too low. Third one yells, "We got 'em!"

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  3. Duh by benk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    > "Relax, everyone - the risk of a gigantic asteroid colliding with Earth just got smaller!"

    Surely the risk hasn't changed, just our estimate of it...

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    -- "For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat and wrong." -- HL Mencken