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More Than 500,000 High Tech Jobs Lost in 2002
stoolpigeon writes: "A study, released today by the AeA, shows that the U.S. high-tech industry lost 540,000 jobs in 2002, dropping from 6.5 million to 6.0 million. However, a preliminary look at data for 2003 shows that the decline in high-tech employment has slowed considerably this year."
That seems to give the impression that they were carelessly mislaid, or accidentally cast aside. Far from it, they were purposefully relocated to a more hospitable economic environment. Free market, free trade, free information, free software and free beer, what more could a philanthropist ask for?
OK, free love, but that always comes with a price.
Another article on it at The Register.
I was an electronics tech for the Navy. Did maintenance on comm gear and other electronic equipment. Went through a variety of schools. I feel the education is very good and the hands on experience is great. I worked with a variety of test equipment, receivers, transmitters, communication gear, etc.
.mil, of course these are the ones you never hear about until they're released to civilian use.
:-)
When I was in, the most technologically advanced jobs were CTM (Crypto Tech Maintenance), ET (Electronics Tech), DS (Data Systems), among others (more specialized).
One individual I met while in was a Senior Chief ET at Treasure Island. As far as I know, he was one of the people to first develop laser listening devices for civilian purchase, or at least one of the first that I've heard of. I didn't see a working model, but he explained what it was and how it worked to me.
At yet another installation, I met a group of Navy Petty Officers and Air Force Sgt's that were developing a means to render video to CD, at the time, it wasn't common place (I hadn't even heard of the technology at the time) to find video on CD's.
There's many "cutting edge" tech gadgets being used in the
It's like the old story about the guy that invented the first "radar gun" for highway patrolmen, he also invented the first "radar detector" for civilians.
I could have *sworn* that the political PR machine has been pumping out stories that the economy is improving and has been since November 2001 (!)... gotta love revisionist economics! 8P
/. readers could). What I'd like instead is an honest accounting of where our economy is, is going, and what the heck is being done to make sure we keep it moving in the right direction. Then when that data is available, I'd want to get good answers about why we are or aren't on target. I'm just fed up with all the crap^H^H^H^Hspin being put out on news feeds about a recovery that (obviously) isn't happening yet... or, at least, not to the degree that's being reported.
;)
Of course, this news goes with my experience; I know plenty of talented developers/tech-people who've been unemployed or lost a job to outsourcing with nary a replacement in sight.
I could rant about the loss of jobs (as I'm sure many
Nope... instead I'll get to read in news papers 3 years from now how there never was a recession between 2000-2003 (or 4). >8(
Doh... that wound up being a rant, didn't it?
Diplomacy is the art of saying, "Nice doggie!" until you can find a rock.
I've been in the market for a good developer for over half a year now. As part of the standard interviewing process, I give the applicant my laptop, with a series of programming problems that should take no more than 15 minutes to solve.
Without exception, everybody fails or takes WAY too long to solve. This, in my mind, is a sign of incompetence, the reason of which I still have not filled the position.
The vast majority of the applicants got their BS in CS or CSE because they thought it would be a good way to make money; very few of the applicants have been truly passionate about technology, and those that were, were incompetent.
For all of you who bitch and complain about how hard it is to find a job, perhaps you ought to sharpen your skillset and seek out the employers who will appreciate it. And for those who got into computing because you heard that there was good money in it, but you'd rather be out windsurfing, get out of computing, get a job windsurfing, and leave room in the market for those who actually have skills, so resume reviewers don't have to waste time with you.
This could have been an Indian, Chinese, whoever.. this is the future where we cannot hold anyone in the third world accountable yet we expect them to handle sensitve information and intellecutal property.
/ ch ronicle/archive/2003/11/12/BUGI52VMQR1.DTL&type=bu siness
I'll get modded down but here's the article:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=
Breaking her silence for the first time, the Pakistani woman who threatened to release UCSF patient files on the Internet says she had "no choice" but to breach the hospital's security after being cut off by the Texas man who'd made her the final link in a long chain of clerical subcontractors.
Lubna Baloch said by e-mail from Karachi that she is "not an opportunistic person who willfully did that to gain some attention."
She said she is instead the "worst sufferer of this situation" because she was only trying to secure UCSF Medical Center's help last month in obtaining money that she was owed.
"I feel violated, helpless," she wrote, adding that she is "the most unluckiest person in this world."
Doctors at U.S. hospitals routinely dictate notes about patient visits, consultations, operations and discharges. Those notes in turn are frequently handed to outside firms that specialize in transcribing them into written form.
The case involving UCSF's patient files represents the nightmare-scenario- come-to-life for the medical industry. For about 20 years, UCSF has farmed out much of its transcription work to a Sausalito company called Transcription Stat.
Transcription Stat outsourced many of the hundreds of files received daily to a network of 15 subcontractors. One of these was a Florida woman named Sonya Newburn, who then outsourced the files yet again to a Texas man named Tom Spires.
Spires outsourced the work one more time to Baloch in Karachi, who agreed to do the transcribing for a small fraction of the amount UCSF originally paid Transcription Stat, thus allowing everyone in the chain to walk away with a modest profit.
But on Oct. 7, Baloch attached two patient files to an e-mail and contacted UCSF. She demanded that the medical facility assist her in squeezing outstanding funds from her employer, Spires.
"Your patient records are out in the open to be exposed, so you better track that person and make him pay my dues or otherwise I will expose all the voice files and patient records of UCSF Parnassus and Mt. Zion campuses on the Internet," Baloch wrote.
2 years and no mod points. Join reddit. Because openness is good.
First we were farmers.
Then they started building factories, and told us that we could get rich by making things, even though lots of people got hurt or killed, the air and water got fouled, and the pay wasn't really that good after all. Then we got together and fought for better conditions, and the people that had only been consuming what we made got strong enough to build factories of their own, and the factories picked up and left.
Then they told us, "Don't worry about the factories leaving! The future is in services and intellectual property creation!" So they trained two generations of us to use computers and write memos and move paper around (at our great expense) so we could work in their service industries.
But the service industries didn't have any factories or other major infrastructural investments, so when the consumers of our software code and financial products got well-educated enough to do those things themselves, the service industries had an even easier time of it and ran for the hills.
Now they're not telling us where we're supposed to work, and not telling us how we're supposed to put our expensive educations to use, only that it'll get better some day. But what's left? No farms, no factories, empty office buildings, and even the production of the very food we eat and the houses we live in is restricted to illegal immigrants because no one is willing to pay living wages. There are some jobs that can't be moved easily - construction, machining, auto repair, but how are we supposed to support an entire economy with this?
1. How many jobs gained during the "bubble" of the late 90's (that was unsustainable) are factored into that count?
2. How many H1B visas that are unrenewed are part of that count? (Exploitative consulting agencies? They loved to pump up the numbers)
3. How many psuedo-engineers have rightly left the CS/IT job market because they dont have the skills?
I worked with a guy briefly in 2000 that got paid $75/hour, 60 hours a week, for a whole month (before jumping ship to greener pastures in Silicon Valley) to write some horribly broken and incomplete perl CGI code.
Yes, nasty perl CGI that didnt work. It was obvious his skills were at tech college freshman / skilled high schooler level, and yet he was able to pull in an insane wage due to irrational exhuberance.
You hear these stories, and it doesnt really sink in until you see it first hand. Things were severely out of balance.
We are almost out of the hangover. If you are truly skilled, you can find a job with some elbow grease and effort 98% of the time. You may need to relocate, you may need to settle for something less than ideal, but they are out there.
The tech services (specifically programming / engineering) are picking up and we are on course for a return to semi-normality. But against the backdrop of insane compensation and free flowing VC cash, even normalcy appears spartan.
The best thing you can do for a career in IT is to truly love it and find it fascinating. This will keep your skills sharp as you experiment and play with cutting edge technologies on your own, and maybe on your job, and also provide the motivation needed to obtain a deeper understanding of the many details associated with programming, system administration, engineering, etc.
If you are in this field for the money, you wont have the drive to stay afloat.
FACT 2: There is a limited demand for your job.
FACT 3: For practical purposes, there is an unlimited supply of people who can learn your job.
Now justify your standard of living.
Note: "I am American, and thus entitled to living better than 90% of the world's population." is not a convincing argument.
Unless you're doing something that only you can do, expect your wage to fall to a level that is attractive only to the poorest people in the world.
Moral: learn to do something remarkable, or accept that you don't deserve more than three meals a day and a warm place to sleep.
Regardless, individual stories of people who got fired/layed off/whatever are barking up the wrong tree in this thread. This has to do with macroeconomic supply, demand, and productivity. And I'm going to argue that things are _better_ with these types of market corrections.
First off, I'm just not buying the 'overseas' argument. I think the people hit hardest are web designers and other low-tech technical people (and some niche high-tech people) - en masse, the jobs just didn't need doing, rather than things that needed doing but are easily farm-out-able. The latter set of jobs seems to me to be rather minimal anyway.
Understand that jobs lost numbers are not 'people who lost their jobs', but 'these jobs no longer exist' - it's not necessarily the case that we 'lost' them to someone else.
Question: of the jobs lost, how many of those didn't need to be done? Answer: all of them (when taken in aggregate). Either the companies died, the work the people did wasn't valuable, or the individuals themselves were not very good and others took up the slack anyway.
Taken not in the individual case, but in general - good people get hired to do something else, and the bottom strata have to find jobs in another industry - arguably, they shouldn't have been here in the first place, but they rode the wave. Sure, there will always be individual cases where this isn't true - usually due to people who are not, for one reason or another, willing to go where the jobs are. (Only these last people are ones for whom a 'move to india' (or wherever new jobs are going) actually makes sense).
What this means is that the salaries for these jobs have either gone into: something not technical but useful, lower prices, stockholder equity, or higher CEO compensation (or any of the other drains on productivity, like lawyers, or increased state taxes, or whatever).
In 3 of the 4 cases, that's a GOOD thing. Note that CEO compensation, and perques in general, haven't been increased due to the bust, and despite SCO, I haven't heard of Lawyers and such hangers-on's incomes being spectacular.
What this means is that if productivity stays high, the total amount of work done has become cheaper. If productivity goes lower, that means that the lost work being done before wasn't valuable - if it was, then it would still be being done (market forces driving production). Finally, in either case, those who _did_ migrate from one job to another are hopefully doing something 'better' (usually are - most of the 'best work' of a job is done in the first year or two, IMO, and someone made a recent decision that this job was worth doing enough to hire someone).
So, all in all, a decline in jobs isn't necessarily a bad thing - it's very possibly a good thing. It's a "correction" of an inherent weakness, and might make us stronger and more productive because of it.
The article does not mention if this is a net loss or a gross loss. This small detail will widely vary the topic's importance.
For almost two decades, the IT industry, in the form of corporate IT departments have been telling their masters:
"Invest in technology, and it will pay off in increased productivity and profits."
For the past 10+ years, the IT industry, in the form of software and hardware vendors, have seen their profits soar as a result of this investment, and developed the perfect mechanism for milking it for consistent, quarterly results: The Upgrade.
The Upgrade has killed the golden goose. The consistent, repetitive costly upgrade... while padding the bottom line of IT Vendors, has eroded the bottom line of the Corporate World.
Increased expediture, planned and worse, ENFORCED obsolescence, ever-increasing headcounts, etc etc etc.
The CEO's and CFO's have had enough, and they aren't taking it anymore. From their perspective IT is a money pit. An endless drain on financial and human resources.
Ane we are wondering why the tech sector is stagnant at best right now? Technology is immature, yet we kept on praising it as the solution to all problems! Arrogance of our superiority and ignorance of true business needs were the dominant perceptions of your average IT department over the past decade or so. Now is the time for their revenge.
The holders of the purse strings want to see some of that return on investment before they'll spend like that again.
Our profession needs to learn humility, and nothing does that better than a financial ass-kicking.
The fact that the job-loss rate has slowed is not necessarily good. It's always pointed to as a sign of economic recovery, when in fact all it means is that the rate of deterioration has decreased.
I think that the layoff rate is going to accelerate again. The fact that the dot-com boom produced hundreds of thousands of 19 year old CIOs means that there are that many people-- young, hungry, flexible-- who are willing to work much cheaper, and perhaps smarter, than old fogeys like me and maybe you. But hey, I'm sure the Bush administration will fix everything...
I'm using this time as an opportunity to go back to school and finish a college degree-- in my case, biotech. I think there's going to be a boom in biotechnology that's going to dwarf the dotcoms, and it'll be a subject that's going to be far more difficult for the average person to learn, both because of subject matter and because of the much greater infrastructure required for learning. It's going to be harder for them to fake knowledge by submitting resumes packed with buzzwords to hundreds of companies knowing that one of the fish is bound to bite.
That is, until Microsoft comes out with gel-chromatography equipment. That's kind of a disturbing thought.
Intolerance for ambiguity is the mark of the authoritarian personality.