Perfect Weather on the Net

ctwxman writes "Here in the East, we're having a heck of a weekend. The snow has been flying, accompanied by wind, accompanied by people on TV saying, 'stay home.' I'm one of those people. I forecast the weather for a living. It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill. And, there's a new puzzle every day, tenuously linked to the one you solved yesterday. When I started doing this over 20 years ago, the data to accomplish the task was tough to come by. I remember how excited I got when I first was able to get data at 300 baud on a request/reply basis (I guess we call that interactive now). Now, nearly everything you need to forecast the weather is here, on the net. Yes, there are a zillion sites that already have the finished forecast, but this is Slashdot. We don't need no stinkin' forecasters!" Read on for ctwxman's notes on do-it-yourself weather forecasting.

ctwxman continues:

I always like to start at NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) for a look at the dynamic models. Each is run using somewhat different equations, making them often come up with different, quite contrary solutions. Some of these models, like the GFS are worldwide in their coverage and forecast out an amazing 16 days (note: the word accurately was not used in the last sentence). Once the dynamic models are through, we can massage them against past performance under similar circumstances at specific places. These are the statistical models, referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistic) models. Again, there are somewhat different solutions from different models. If none of these work for you, run your own. There are programs available to allow you to run your own model, specifying the domain, grid spacing, time interval, etc. The most commonly used research model of this type is the MM5, produced at Penn State University. Run it on your PC! Of course, it's freely available and supported. Sometimes, the data you want already exists, but not in the form you'd like to see it. That's where software like GrADS comes in. Put out by the Institute of Global Atmosphere and Society's Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, GrADS claims to be an 'interactive desktop tool that is used for easy access, manipulation, and visualization of earth science data.' I agree with all except 'easy.' I run a version of GrADS on my server in order to produce localized forecast graphics like this that wouldn't otherwise be available. Yes, looking at satellite imagery and radar is a lot of fun... but the real fun is knowing what will be there before you look. And, astoundingly enough, we are significantly more accurate (and I get assaulted significantly less often at the grocery store) than even a few years ago.

Comments

A great job...

[wrinkledshirt]

It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill.

Coupled with the fact that nobody expects weathermen to be right anyway, must be a great living.

Imagine a nuclear physicist saying, "You know, it's funny, but yesterday all indications were that today was going to be a smooth day for our reactor. How about that, eh?"

Re:A great job...

[thorpie]

"Trust me, i'm a weather forecaster" is my standard "you can trust me line". I still use it, but if forecasts get better I may have to change back to "I'm a used car salesman" or "I work for SCO" or the like.

Re:A great job...

[glrotate]

Alternatively tell them your an economist.

In a related story...

[cr@ckwhore]

Meanwhile, weather forecasters around the world were puzzled Sunday as access to weather data over the internet crawled to a halt. A Whitehouse representative denied rumors of a terrorist attack on the weather infrastructure.

The mysterious cause of the delays in weather data are under investigation.

Re:Run your OWN weather station

[The Dobber]

How many of them have real meteorological degrees anyway?

I ain't watchin the Weather Bunnies cause of thier metrological (sp) ability.

Anyone ever note the frequency of pregnancies on the Weather Channel. Place must be a god damn rabbit warren.

There are only 10 types of people

[Anonymous Coward]

those who understand METAR and TAF and those who don't...

e.g.:
(Terminal Airport Forecast of J-F Kennedy Airport)
2002/11/17 09:14
KJFK 170914Z 170913 03021G32KT 6SM -RA BR OVC012
TEMPO 0913 3SM RA BR OVC008
FM1400 02013G20KT 5SM -RA BR OVC012
FM2100 36011KT 5SM -RA BR OVC020
FM0400 34009KT 5SM -RA BR OVC015

Programing for dummies

[KillerCow]

Yes, there are a zillion sites that already have the finished forecast, but this is Slashdot. We don't need no stinkin' forecasters!

Find a problem that has already been solved, and re-solve it.

Re:If Only it was right!

[no reason to be here]

Here in Seattle the weather forcasts are wrong more than they are right.

How the Hell can you screw up a weather forecast for Seattle?

"Tomorrow's weather forecast: 'Rain'"

You know what they say about...

[Anonymous Coward]

weathermen and economists. They can have long successful careers without ever being right.

The low tech wind gauge, very reliable.

[Bob Bitchen]

wind sock