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High-Tech Firms Worry About Taiwan-China Tensions
Andy Tai writes "This San Jose Mercury News story shows high tech companies in the Silicon Valley worry about a possible war between mainland China and Taiwan. Both play important roles in the computer industry and the U.S. depends on both to finance the federal budget deficits. Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self-destructive path."
Looks like the old "The is only one China" Jedi mind trick is becoming less effective.
Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.
Meanwhile, hippies hope that love of peace will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path, and Slashdotters hope that considering the impact of a war on American technology consumers will prevent the war.
The shareholder is always right.
Maybe now execs will start to see the true value of keeping their high tech centers located in stable political environments.
Wait a minute. Are there any non-Asian memory manufacturers?
Come on, this is WHY it is cheap and effective to use offshore suppliers.
The reason that many countries are expensive is because they are safe and stable.
The laws, workforce, international situation are all good, you are likely dealing with an expensive country.
If you go to some country that has "political risk" the costs will be lower to account for this, everyone who does business with such a country must account for this risk.
If you want a safe stable place to do business keep it in a stable country, Don't put it in a semi independant nation/state mess on the other side of the world.
Amazing what killing/jailing those who disagree you does. Also, it doesn't hurt if you keep most of your population at damn near the global poverty level.
And I'm not sure if you were being ironic with your "money is bad, think about the children" line, but note that in this case the point is that the lost revenue would actually be a deterrent for war. In other words, economic factors are actually helping to make the war less likely.
Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.
Both economically and militarily, there won't be mutual self-destruction between mainland China and Taiwan. Instead, there will be one huge mammoth of a country squashing a football-field-sized other country.
And there won't be economic or military sanctions on China (the threat of which is what prevented it from harming Taiwan for so long) because now the US, the only country able to inflict any kind of sanctions on China, has vested interests in both countries.
The only thing China risks is reproachful looks at the UN for a while, then after everybody there is done looking really shocked, Taiwan will be history. Proof is, if the rest of the world had any kind of power against China's actions, Tibet would have been freed a long time ago.
In short: Taiwan's days are numbered.
"A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of" - Ogden Nash
But as I said before, a war between the two countries isn't likely. China knows the consequences of going into Taiwan; it would lead to American intervention and probably put an end to Chinese economic development and lucrative trade China does with the United States.
- A
"Avoiding unnecessary bloodshed" hasn't worked as a reason for the last 4000 years or so, why would it work any better today?
If money keeps these morons from fighting, then I say hurrah for money.
Not so simple. The mere existance of a Taiwan government provokes China. China's viewpoint is that Taiwan is simply a rebel republic, and that's why the USA can't establish formal relations with Taiwan for fear of upseting China.
Saddam had historical claims on Kuwait too ... you can always construe agression as internal conflict if you try hard enough.
Morally we all know Taiwan is an independent state, wether our governments recognise it as such or not.
It is just appeasement all over again.
Geeks should recall that neither is it wise to intentionally provoke a neighbour with 40 billion dollars in assets and a 99% desktop market share. It may be instructive to also remember those things called "ideals", that some people consider to be worth fighting for.
Um, let's see. China: Brutal, communist dictatorship with a secret police, forced abortion, internet censorship, Tianeman square massacres.
Taiwan: Democratic nation with freedom of speech and press and constitutional guarantees of liberty.
Every time a tyranny falls, the world becomes a better place.
The real tragedy is that someone has to explain this to you.
You can tell a great deal about the character of a man by observing those who hate him.
Because China goes around kill/jailing anyone that says negative things about the current goverment.
Because China doesn't give it's citizens the right to vote in a true/fair election.
Becuase China kills/jails those whos religion it doesn't agree with.
As to who gave people the right to be independent? I my opinion, and the opinion of the framers of the US Const., the Creator. Otherwise know as God.
> to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops.
> they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover,
> 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to
> protect the invasion from being observed from
> satelites, which would give us and taiwan
> advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and
> maintain a beachhead once there
China has an excellent military, including an air force and the navy, which it can use quite effectively. Remember the time when Taiwan was having its first elections, back in 1996? China performed quite a show of force back then, holding exercises in which an occupying force took and held a beachhead and a few islands, giving a good proof of concept for a Taiwan invasion. The comparison with Normandy is misleading; Taiwan does not have anything comparable to the forces that Germans had on that beach. The coast of Taiwan is not all that well protected, and I doubt that the Chinese army would worry much about it, unless the U.S. decided to intervene. As for your comment about satellites; first, advance warning of a few hours is not going to help much against such a powerful adversary; second, if Saddam Hussein had no difficulty hiding tanks in the open desert from both the satellites and ground observation, surely, a technologically advanced nation like China could figure something out.
> second, china built the three gorges dam.
When important national interests are at stake, the Chinese government would be willing to overlook a few casualties.
> we could take it out in about 10 minutes.
Perhaps. But would we? The U.S. needs China way more than China needs the U.S.; China is the producer, the U.S. is the consumer. If the producer loses one market, it could find another. If the consumer loses the goods, he loses the goods. There is simply no way domestic industry could replace all the cheap imports from China. Slave labor is always cheaper than technology.
Of course they'd fail, since the U.S. couldn't allow them to succeed. But the fighting would devestate Korea and place a nasty strain on U.S. military resources, which are already stretched. Let's see, that would leave two of the most productive economies in Asia (Taiwan and Korea) in utter ruins, with millions of unemployed. And the U.S., which is already spending gazillions it doesn't have, would be spending gazillions more. So economic hard times here, for a bunch of reasons.
And that's the best case scenario. It assumes the DPRK doesn't have more than a couple of nukes...
For all practical purposes, China and Taiwan have been separate nations since WWII. It's just that most of the world does not want to antagonize a touchy nation with nuclear arms (not to mention the world's largest emerging market). At this stage of China's development, pretending that Taiwan is part of China is probably the safest course for all concerned.
It's not a troll. It's humor you don't agree with. That's ok and you're entitled to your opinion.
:)
:)
Obviously not everyone who disagrees with Pres. Bush is getting tossed into Gitmo, and it would be both an extension of the point and a fundamental fallacy to say so.
Which is why it's funny to say so
At the same time, when you lock people up for an indeterminate amount of time, deny them the right to seek legal counsel, and hold all hearings pertaining to their "crime" in secret.... you risk looking like you're running a police state.
Is Gitmo full of political prisoners of the Bush Administration? Of course not. Are most of the people there terrorists and other dangerous folk? Probably. Are we all safer and more secure with those people behind bars (or barbed wire as the case may be)? Definitely.
But are there also some people there who were wrongly imprisoned, who didn't do anything, and who are being denied their Constitutionally Protected rights to trial by jury, legal advice, and habeas corpus? Almost certainly.
In my mind, that single fact (or if you prefer, possibility) counters every possible argument, every possible benefit, and every considerable merit for keeping prisoners in the Gitmo facility and trying their cases in secret. These people have a right to defend themselves in a court of law in full view of the public. If we take that away how can we really say we're fighting to defend freedom anymore? How can we really say we're championing anything other than oppression and totalitarian rule?
Let these cases stand on their own merit. If the government has proof than let it be seen. Too many American lives have been sacrificed on the alter of freedom, too many of our nation's sons have died to hoist the banner of liberty, too many fathers have been cut down fighting a war for justice to throw away the values we hold so dear at this moment of crisis.
I could have posted all that, but I was going for the +5 funny. You people have no since of humor
Killfile(TGK)
No trees were killed in the creation of this post. However, many electrons were inconvenienced.
There won't be a war between China and Taiwan. Why?
1. US Popular Support For Taiwan. I don't care what the pessimists, Europeans, and US bashers out there say, the American people love the ideals of democracy, of freedom, etc. Being an American forces you to accept those ideals. Now, since the WMD is gone, Bush has justified the Iraq war as "helping the oppressed Iraqis". What about the Taiwanese? Aren't they going to be oppressed if China takes over? Damn straight they will. And Bush will be fscked, because even if he doesn't want war, his very actions doom him to this one action. There's a famous Latin phrase for this, but I forgot it. Anyone want to help me out?
2. Saber Rattling. China has been rattling it's saber at Taiwan for what? Years, decades even. And it's gotten old. I'll believe the Chinese are going to invade Taiwan when I see shitloads of Chinese troops boarding a cruiser...
3. Economic. China is a fscking Communist, if anyone's forgotten. It represses people. If China doesn't want to go into a recession, it won't invade. Guess what? If China invades, say goodbye to Chinese exports to Western nations. Goodbye to China's booming economy. And goodbye to general Chinese population happiness. China's people are tolerating the government because it's providing a growing standard of living (Although, speaking as a political scientist, it's unclear whether the Communist government can stay in power as capitalism, long a hallmark of Western democracies, booms). Anyway, when China's economy drops through the floor, what happens? Discontentment. Perhaps riots. Worst case scenario, China will need troops just to quell disturbances, etc.
4. Western Help. Come on. As listed in #1, we're going to go help the Taiwanese. Subs, missiles, ships, etc. I'd like to see the nonexistent Chinese Navy, full of Chinese Army troops, get to Taiwan when confronted by the US Seventh Fleet. Not to mention high altitude bomber attacks.
"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide. This has been so since antiquity. When the rule of the Zhou Dynasty weakened, seven contending kingdoms sprang up, warring one with another until the kingdom of Qin prevailed and possessed the empire. But when Qin's destiny had been fulfilled, arose two opposing kingdoms, Chu and Han, to fight for the mastery. And Han was the victor."
"Before him bowed the kings of Shu and Wu,
Content to forfeit kingly power for life.
All down the ages rings the note of change,
For fate so rules it; none escapes its sway.
The three kingdoms have vanished as a dream,
The useless misery is ours to grieve."
These are the opening and ending lines of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, one of the most popular and well-known books in China. In the Chinese mentality the reunification of Taiwan with China is something that is going to happen eventually, if not right now. Why? They look at history. China has always split into 2 or more countries after the end of a dynasty and one of those countries has always gone and defeated the others to reunify China. Since it has always happened in the past it will happen in the future (Chinese believe strongly in cycles). If people wonder where China's obsession with unification comes from...Historical characters such as those in Three Kingdoms who reunite China (or try really really hard eg. Ngok Fei) are always admired and become national heroes and are even elevated to gods.
I can see China invading Taiwan though not right now. If civil unrest continues in China and the economy goes downhill, in order to maintain power the government might raise the spectre of nationalism. Nationalism is already replacing Communism as the idealism the government is using to keep people loyal and faithful. And once nationalism is raised in rhetoric it may be a war that the Chinese government is forced into by its own proclaimations. It may back itself into a corner and decide invading and the consequences would be better than losing face. And unification has always been a fascination of the Chinese as books like Romance of the Three Kingdoms show. Think - a restless China with economic problems, a new young energetic Chinese premier comes into power on the back of a strong nationalist campaign. He thinks - could I become another Guan Yu from Three Kingdoms (who is now worshipped as a god)? The temptation to recreate the Oath of the Peach Tree Garden may be too hard to resist. Chinese rulers have done a lot more stupid illogical frankly self-destructive things in the past.
In these circumstances, the needs of technology users in America are going to be the least of their considerations. Godhood or computer users in the US? Godhood or computer users in the US?
I wonder if U.S. firms have thought about other instabilities such as the tension between India and Pakistan? If much of our capability to develop software is outsourced to India and all hell breaks loose, what happens to our tech industry then?