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High-Tech Firms Worry About Taiwan-China Tensions
Andy Tai writes "This San Jose Mercury News story shows high tech companies in the Silicon Valley worry about a possible war between mainland China and Taiwan. Both play important roles in the computer industry and the U.S. depends on both to finance the federal budget deficits. Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self-destructive path."
the memory shortages several years back when the taiwanese warehouses and manufacturers we blown away by a typhoon?
Looks like the old "The is only one China" Jedi mind trick is becoming less effective.
Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.
Meanwhile, hippies hope that love of peace will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path, and Slashdotters hope that considering the impact of a war on American technology consumers will prevent the war.
The shareholder is always right.
Maybe now execs will start to see the true value of keeping their high tech centers located in stable political environments.
It's nice to think that what with war looming, the prospect of thousands of people being killed, all business men can think about is money. It sickens me.
When anger rises, think of the consequences.
Confucius (551 BC - 479 BC)
Also consider the large number of immigrants from China (both the ROC and the PRC) in the Silicon Valley. Many of them have family back there who would be caught in the conflict. I used to work for a company in which a majority of the people were from Taiwan. I can imagine them getting quite worried.
-- $SIGNATURE
They say they don't want a war because it'd be unprofitable. Isn't avoiding unnecessary bloodshed a good enough reason anymore?
I ran a benchmark on my quantum computer, now I can't find it anywhere!
Come on, this is WHY it is cheap and effective to use offshore suppliers.
The reason that many countries are expensive is because they are safe and stable.
The laws, workforce, international situation are all good, you are likely dealing with an expensive country.
If you go to some country that has "political risk" the costs will be lower to account for this, everyone who does business with such a country must account for this risk.
If you want a safe stable place to do business keep it in a stable country, Don't put it in a semi independant nation/state mess on the other side of the world.
Amazing what killing/jailing those who disagree you does. Also, it doesn't hurt if you keep most of your population at damn near the global poverty level.
I think Micron qualifies.
********* sig: If you don't like the law, get filthy stinking rich, and buy a better one.
Many businessmen hope that economic considerations will prevent both sides from marching down a self destructive path.
Both economically and militarily, there won't be mutual self-destruction between mainland China and Taiwan. Instead, there will be one huge mammoth of a country squashing a football-field-sized other country.
And there won't be economic or military sanctions on China (the threat of which is what prevented it from harming Taiwan for so long) because now the US, the only country able to inflict any kind of sanctions on China, has vested interests in both countries.
The only thing China risks is reproachful looks at the UN for a while, then after everybody there is done looking really shocked, Taiwan will be history. Proof is, if the rest of the world had any kind of power against China's actions, Tibet would have been freed a long time ago.
In short: Taiwan's days are numbered.
"A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of" - Ogden Nash
For anyone who is as utterly clueless as I was about what's going on between China and Taiwan, take a look at this:
a iwan.html
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/china/china-t
What has *science* done?!? -- Dr. Weird (ATHF)
But as I said before, a war between the two countries isn't likely. China knows the consequences of going into Taiwan; it would lead to American intervention and probably put an end to Chinese economic development and lucrative trade China does with the United States.
- A
there wil not be a war between china and taiwan for several reasons. now you need to understand some military history (which fortunately is my vocation, geekdom being my avocation).
first, china simply can't go to war with taiwan. (oh sure, they can fire some missles, but then see down the list.) see, to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa (taiwan strait) would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops. they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover, 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to protect the invasion from being observed from satelites, which would give us and taiwan advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and maintain a beachhead once there. it doesn't matter if you have one million, or 10 million, troops in an invasion. if you can't support them, they're targets.
second, china built the three gorges dam. they have so much capital (even in communist china!!) tied up in it, it generates such a large portionof power. and, it is impssible to defend from air ro missile attack. we could take it out in about 10 minutes. and they're fscking toast.
third, china is so dependent upon the US trade for an in flux of capital and hard currency. anything more than sabre rattling, and we shut that off, they take a shit. they are fscked.
i could go on further. the cuyrrent regime is on its last legs. this is an in ternal power struggle between the old commies and the younger reformers. nothing else.
My problem? I was perfectly gruntled, until some numbnuts came by and dissed me.
"Avoiding unnecessary bloodshed" hasn't worked as a reason for the last 4000 years or so, why would it work any better today?
If money keeps these morons from fighting, then I say hurrah for money.
Aside from the fact that China doesn't give a fuck about economic concerns, there isn't much chance of a war happening.
As unlikely as more people looking to China than the U.S. for hopes for a better future.
[o]_O
Not so simple. The mere existance of a Taiwan government provokes China. China's viewpoint is that Taiwan is simply a rebel republic, and that's why the USA can't establish formal relations with Taiwan for fear of upseting China.
Saddam had historical claims on Kuwait too ... you can always construe agression as internal conflict if you try hard enough.
Morally we all know Taiwan is an independent state, wether our governments recognise it as such or not.
It is just appeasement all over again.
Geeks should recall that neither is it wise to intentionally provoke a neighbour with 40 billion dollars in assets and a 99% desktop market share. It may be instructive to also remember those things called "ideals", that some people consider to be worth fighting for.
Um, let's see. China: Brutal, communist dictatorship with a secret police, forced abortion, internet censorship, Tianeman square massacres.
Taiwan: Democratic nation with freedom of speech and press and constitutional guarantees of liberty.
Every time a tyranny falls, the world becomes a better place.
The real tragedy is that someone has to explain this to you.
You can tell a great deal about the character of a man by observing those who hate him.
Because China goes around kill/jailing anyone that says negative things about the current goverment.
Because China doesn't give it's citizens the right to vote in a true/fair election.
Becuase China kills/jails those whos religion it doesn't agree with.
As to who gave people the right to be independent? I my opinion, and the opinion of the framers of the US Const., the Creator. Otherwise know as God.
> to cross 70 miles of the strait of formosa would be an undertaking that would make normandy and okinawa be minor ops.
> they don't have the 1) airforce to provide cover,
> 2) the navy to carry them over, 3) the ability to
> protect the invasion from being observed from
> satelites, which would give us and taiwan
> advanced notice, 4) the ability to hold and
> maintain a beachhead once there
China has an excellent military, including an air force and the navy, which it can use quite effectively. Remember the time when Taiwan was having its first elections, back in 1996? China performed quite a show of force back then, holding exercises in which an occupying force took and held a beachhead and a few islands, giving a good proof of concept for a Taiwan invasion. The comparison with Normandy is misleading; Taiwan does not have anything comparable to the forces that Germans had on that beach. The coast of Taiwan is not all that well protected, and I doubt that the Chinese army would worry much about it, unless the U.S. decided to intervene. As for your comment about satellites; first, advance warning of a few hours is not going to help much against such a powerful adversary; second, if Saddam Hussein had no difficulty hiding tanks in the open desert from both the satellites and ground observation, surely, a technologically advanced nation like China could figure something out.
> second, china built the three gorges dam.
When important national interests are at stake, the Chinese government would be willing to overlook a few casualties.
> we could take it out in about 10 minutes.
Perhaps. But would we? The U.S. needs China way more than China needs the U.S.; China is the producer, the U.S. is the consumer. If the producer loses one market, it could find another. If the consumer loses the goods, he loses the goods. There is simply no way domestic industry could replace all the cheap imports from China. Slave labor is always cheaper than technology.
Of course they'd fail, since the U.S. couldn't allow them to succeed. But the fighting would devestate Korea and place a nasty strain on U.S. military resources, which are already stretched. Let's see, that would leave two of the most productive economies in Asia (Taiwan and Korea) in utter ruins, with millions of unemployed. And the U.S., which is already spending gazillions it doesn't have, would be spending gazillions more. So economic hard times here, for a bunch of reasons.
And that's the best case scenario. It assumes the DPRK doesn't have more than a couple of nukes...
For all practical purposes, China and Taiwan have been separate nations since WWII. It's just that most of the world does not want to antagonize a touchy nation with nuclear arms (not to mention the world's largest emerging market). At this stage of China's development, pretending that Taiwan is part of China is probably the safest course for all concerned.
It's not a troll. It's humor you don't agree with. That's ok and you're entitled to your opinion.
:)
:)
Obviously not everyone who disagrees with Pres. Bush is getting tossed into Gitmo, and it would be both an extension of the point and a fundamental fallacy to say so.
Which is why it's funny to say so
At the same time, when you lock people up for an indeterminate amount of time, deny them the right to seek legal counsel, and hold all hearings pertaining to their "crime" in secret.... you risk looking like you're running a police state.
Is Gitmo full of political prisoners of the Bush Administration? Of course not. Are most of the people there terrorists and other dangerous folk? Probably. Are we all safer and more secure with those people behind bars (or barbed wire as the case may be)? Definitely.
But are there also some people there who were wrongly imprisoned, who didn't do anything, and who are being denied their Constitutionally Protected rights to trial by jury, legal advice, and habeas corpus? Almost certainly.
In my mind, that single fact (or if you prefer, possibility) counters every possible argument, every possible benefit, and every considerable merit for keeping prisoners in the Gitmo facility and trying their cases in secret. These people have a right to defend themselves in a court of law in full view of the public. If we take that away how can we really say we're fighting to defend freedom anymore? How can we really say we're championing anything other than oppression and totalitarian rule?
Let these cases stand on their own merit. If the government has proof than let it be seen. Too many American lives have been sacrificed on the alter of freedom, too many of our nation's sons have died to hoist the banner of liberty, too many fathers have been cut down fighting a war for justice to throw away the values we hold so dear at this moment of crisis.
I could have posted all that, but I was going for the +5 funny. You people have no since of humor
Killfile(TGK)
No trees were killed in the creation of this post. However, many electrons were inconvenienced.
There won't be a war between China and Taiwan. Why?
1. US Popular Support For Taiwan. I don't care what the pessimists, Europeans, and US bashers out there say, the American people love the ideals of democracy, of freedom, etc. Being an American forces you to accept those ideals. Now, since the WMD is gone, Bush has justified the Iraq war as "helping the oppressed Iraqis". What about the Taiwanese? Aren't they going to be oppressed if China takes over? Damn straight they will. And Bush will be fscked, because even if he doesn't want war, his very actions doom him to this one action. There's a famous Latin phrase for this, but I forgot it. Anyone want to help me out?
2. Saber Rattling. China has been rattling it's saber at Taiwan for what? Years, decades even. And it's gotten old. I'll believe the Chinese are going to invade Taiwan when I see shitloads of Chinese troops boarding a cruiser...
3. Economic. China is a fscking Communist, if anyone's forgotten. It represses people. If China doesn't want to go into a recession, it won't invade. Guess what? If China invades, say goodbye to Chinese exports to Western nations. Goodbye to China's booming economy. And goodbye to general Chinese population happiness. China's people are tolerating the government because it's providing a growing standard of living (Although, speaking as a political scientist, it's unclear whether the Communist government can stay in power as capitalism, long a hallmark of Western democracies, booms). Anyway, when China's economy drops through the floor, what happens? Discontentment. Perhaps riots. Worst case scenario, China will need troops just to quell disturbances, etc.
4. Western Help. Come on. As listed in #1, we're going to go help the Taiwanese. Subs, missiles, ships, etc. I'd like to see the nonexistent Chinese Navy, full of Chinese Army troops, get to Taiwan when confronted by the US Seventh Fleet. Not to mention high altitude bomber attacks.
Check the price of land in Taiwan. Check the price of land in Peru.
An old adage in business: for enough money ANYTHING is for sale. Taiwan doesn't have to show up and say: How much for your lovely country, they could just start buying up real estate. Asian bankers have bucks and backing. It wouldn't take much to start developing Peru, or whatever other country was available.
Look, they might need some new laws regarding percentage ownership, but it's not like they couldn't buy political influence too. I'm also not talking about throwing out the old population, just buy, develop and move in.
If Peru doesn't want the obvious economic benefits, there are certainly other countries that would take the deal.
********* sig: If you don't like the law, get filthy stinking rich, and buy a better one.
Taiwant governors are against the large-scale investment plan of taiwan major IT manufactors to mainland china for poiltical reasons.
Furthermore they also disencourge people from mainland china visiting and treat all of them as spies. It means you must back to hotel before 7pm and report to your guide everyday! This prevents the normal technical communcation between two areas.
Thirdly there are not direct tranportation method between mainland china to taiwan (must via a third place.) The import tax is almost free for transport industry goods from taiwan to mainland china but is very high for inverse.
All of these aspects lead to the result of many additional, unreasonable costs are attached into the final IT products. One thing is surly confirm that many IT products will become much cheaper(such as motherboard, ram and monitor) if two areas are united, at least in terms of market.
In addition, in fact, for chinese people, we dont call taiwan and china as two countries(For long time western medias have been misleading this key point where most Chinese people, even many people in taiwan, are strongly against). Instead, we use taiwan district of China and mainland China, or Republic of China and People's Republic of China, agreed with both governments.
...will somebody PLEASE think of the computers!! I mean children.... no wait computer... chil... comput...
which one are we worried about here?
"The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide. This has been so since antiquity. When the rule of the Zhou Dynasty weakened, seven contending kingdoms sprang up, warring one with another until the kingdom of Qin prevailed and possessed the empire. But when Qin's destiny had been fulfilled, arose two opposing kingdoms, Chu and Han, to fight for the mastery. And Han was the victor."
"Before him bowed the kings of Shu and Wu,
Content to forfeit kingly power for life.
All down the ages rings the note of change,
For fate so rules it; none escapes its sway.
The three kingdoms have vanished as a dream,
The useless misery is ours to grieve."
These are the opening and ending lines of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, one of the most popular and well-known books in China. In the Chinese mentality the reunification of Taiwan with China is something that is going to happen eventually, if not right now. Why? They look at history. China has always split into 2 or more countries after the end of a dynasty and one of those countries has always gone and defeated the others to reunify China. Since it has always happened in the past it will happen in the future (Chinese believe strongly in cycles). If people wonder where China's obsession with unification comes from...Historical characters such as those in Three Kingdoms who reunite China (or try really really hard eg. Ngok Fei) are always admired and become national heroes and are even elevated to gods.
I can see China invading Taiwan though not right now. If civil unrest continues in China and the economy goes downhill, in order to maintain power the government might raise the spectre of nationalism. Nationalism is already replacing Communism as the idealism the government is using to keep people loyal and faithful. And once nationalism is raised in rhetoric it may be a war that the Chinese government is forced into by its own proclaimations. It may back itself into a corner and decide invading and the consequences would be better than losing face. And unification has always been a fascination of the Chinese as books like Romance of the Three Kingdoms show. Think - a restless China with economic problems, a new young energetic Chinese premier comes into power on the back of a strong nationalist campaign. He thinks - could I become another Guan Yu from Three Kingdoms (who is now worshipped as a god)? The temptation to recreate the Oath of the Peach Tree Garden may be too hard to resist. Chinese rulers have done a lot more stupid illogical frankly self-destructive things in the past.
In these circumstances, the needs of technology users in America are going to be the least of their considerations. Godhood or computer users in the US? Godhood or computer users in the US?
Actually, I stoped viewing China as communist a long time ago, and I'm communist. China nowadays is more capitalist that anything else, but the important thing here is that China is imperialistic by nature, and culturally used to totalitarian regimes. Remember that much of the problems China had in the 80's were with the USSR ( I have a book here from Novosti Press - USSR's official press - from the 80's called "China: Imperialist and Authocratic Regime").
What I said about totalitarian regimes doesn't mean it makes it OK by me, but every kind of political definition of China must take into account the very specific history of China.
Toa add to this the "founding fathers" of Formosa, the Kuomitang, were also completely against independence: Taiwan's view on this issue was (and is) exactly the same as PRC. The Real Government of China was the one in Formosa, mainland China was a rebel part of the country.
What is happening now is that the new generation of taiwanese wants independece. PRC will not allow this. We had to "return" Macau some years ago and it was a) not part of China when conquered and b) never ruled by an asian potency for 500 years. Still, China made this huge thing about it, and since it has the weapons, well, let's just say that it would be kind of impolite to refuse.
Of course, they could just say "ok, you're independent, fine with us", but I think they are going to choose the American way: "Want to seceed? Ok, here we go!!!".
cheers
Maybe these company CEOs should signal the Taiwan government that it's not good for business if you intentionally provoke a neighbour with nuclear weapons and the world's largest standing military.
It is now considered provoking to tell an agressive outsider who has been eyeing you up for about a century that you will not be governed by a murderous Communist regime?
Maybe we should be telling the Chi-Comms that they need to keep it in their pants. Unlike Tiananmen Square, an attack on Taiwan would effect the economic interests of just about every other country on the planet. Many of us have more nukes than they do. And one of us has a treaty with Taiwan that will function as a defense treaty.
Don't fuck with Taiwan.
"Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
Recent events have cast a more optimistic look on the whole situation. In this recent CNN article on 12/11/2003, Wen says, "We respect the desire of the Taiwan people to develop and pursue democracy. However, we firmly oppose the attempts by certain separatist forces in Taiwan to pursue Taiwan independence under the disguise of promoting democracy in an attempt to cut of Taiwan from the mainland." If reunification is the purpose, there's no point in going there and blowing everything away.
I wonder if U.S. firms have thought about other instabilities such as the tension between India and Pakistan? If much of our capability to develop software is outsourced to India and all hell breaks loose, what happens to our tech industry then?