X-Prize Progress Update

savuporo writes "The X-Prize organization has released a summary document (PDF), detailing the recent progress and immediate plans of 13 different competing teams, of those who have publicised information of significant hardware development (there are a total of 27 officially listed competitors from seven nations by now). Some details: quite a few teams are expecting to do full-scale or subscale powered flight tests soon, some as early as January 2004. Burt Rutan can still be considered as leading the pack, but others are not too far behind, and the winner is far from certain. Armadillo Aerospace states that some US teams are hindered more by regulatory hassles, than technical issues. Speaking of Armadillo, the team has just released a very special video, commemorating tomorrow's 100th anniversary of powered flight."

Comments

Makes you wonder

[BWJones]

Armadillo Aerospace states that some US teams are hindered more by regulatory hassles, than technical issues.

It really makes one wonder where we would be if Goddard had restrictions on fuel sources and flight space or even where the Wright Bros. would be if they had to constantly check with local authorities every time they wanted to make a flight.

When my grandfather learned how to fly, planes had three or four instruments and they simply ran the engine up and took off and landed wherever they wanted. Times change of course and when I learned, we had significant classroom time talking about all sorts of regulations before we could even get into planes. Granted, some of this control is simply because of crowded airspace, but it seems sometimes that our fear of terrorism is actually hampering development of a whole variety of technologies and progress in fields as disparate as aerospace to biology. Where to draw the line?

Re:Makes you wonder

[Moofie]

Lots of people also died in those old airplanes. They also didn't have to fly in and out of controlled airspaces (like airports).

Should Carmack be able to buy rocket fuel? Sure, if he can store it safely. Should any old yokel be allowed to fly a plane? I don't know about you, but we let any old yokel drive a car, and that seems to me like a pretty bad idea.

There were no good old days.

Re:Makes you wonder

[_Sprocket_]

Should Carmack be able to buy rocket fuel? Sure, if he can store it safely.

Good point. One of my consulting gigs came about when the regular admin killed himself working on a rocket engine. Partially blew himself up in the backyard. Died in his wife's arms.

It could have been worse. He could have hurt someone else too (I have no idea how competent the guy was with this stuff).

Now... I appreciate the drive that makes someone want to work with that stuff (unlike some of the admin's former coworkers). But at the same time, its no toy. The stuff is dangerous. To those who work with it and those who just happen to be in the area at the wrong time.

This is what's needed

[Cap'nMike]

to get commercial space exploration started. As long as NASA is the only serious space agency, progress will be slow and safe. By letting individuals and small groups take risks that NASA is unwilling or unable to take, progress can be expected much sooner. The same thing has been seen throughout history as individuals willing to take risks have always surpassed massive, slow, cautious exploration by governments.

Re:This is what's needed

[criordan]

True, but in order to be commercially successful you need customers. Would you be willing to PAY money to take risks like that?

Going down to the wire

[kingdon]

Keep in mind that the funding for the prize expires on 1 Jan 2005 ("the X PRIZE is fully funded through January 1, 2005, through private donations and backed by an insurance policy" from the X Prize web site). That's less than 13 months from now. Scaled Composites, which I suppose is the leader, is planning flight tests for the next 6-9 months leading "eventually" to a 100 km altitude which is the altitude needed to win the prize.

That doesn't give them a lot of extra time if they experience trouble. Of course what is great about having multiple teams is that if one falters, another may succeed. Given the number of things which can go wrong (a zillion technical things, and of course the legal/funding/etc ones), however, it isn't hard to imagine all the teams being delayed past the deadline.

But having said all that, it is great to see this activity going on. Should be fun to watch!

Re:Morbid musings...

[Tackhead]

> ...I wonder how many people will die testing their vehicles? Rocket fuel, (over)enthusiastic amateurs, not much official oversight. Sounds dangerous!

Rocket fuel, (PowerPoint-slide obsessed) professionals, and a whole NASA-load of official oversight. Experimentally verified as dangerous.

Anything less than 14 dead is an incredible improvement over the present situation.

An Appropriate Memorial

[randall_burns]

It is strange that the Wright Flyer wound up in the Smithsonian-an organization that sponsored Langely and denied the priority of the Wright Brothers for quite some time.

I suspect that if they were somehow brought into the present era, the Wright Brothers would relate for more to the efforts of folks like Armadillo Aerospace than any of the official government programs.

Re:Is 10 million really enough?

[Gorobei]

They mostly aren't looking for compensation. It's a prize, not an R&D funding exercise.

Looking at the teams:

Rutan - wants to build cool flying vehicles (e.g. round the world on one tank of gas.) Ignoring his photoshopped SpaceShipOne images, actually has a chance at the X-Prize within two years.

Carmack - wants to make cool rocket toys. Working on hovering, not space shots. 5% chance of X-Prize within 5 years.

Steve Bennett - publicity seeking loon. 0% chance of any rocketry of interest, ever.

All the rest - 20% chance of success with 5 years. Seriously, if you aren't test firing a R motor (think model rocketry A, B, C, etc) every week at this point, you don't have a hope of meeting the X-Prize goals in the next couple of years.