Linux 2.6 Kernel Pool Results

jafo writes "Steve Ratcliffe, Master Software Project Estimator, has most correctly estimated the release of the Linux version 2.6 kernel. On January 6, 2001 (within 4 hours of when the 2.6 kernel pool was opened), he entered a guess which was accurate within 15 hours. Check the results for some interesting statistics and submit your guess for the 2.8 pool." See the original story if you like.

Comments

Gambling on kernels - is it a good idea?

[Anonymous Coward]

After all, if the contributors(who can remain anonymous - it is open source, after all!) have a stake in the time the kernal is released, can't that cause some conflicts of interest vis a vis quality control, bug fixing, and overall process ownership?

2.8.0?

[alitaa]

what if they call it 3.0.0? :D

KRUD

[Neon Spiral Injector]

I still have my KRUD CDs from coming in within the top 20 for 2.4. I missed 2.6 by a month. Both guesses were made the day the pool went up.

Interesting statistics...

[cperciva]

If you exclude the guesses which are obviously jokes (eg, 2038), then 96% of the guesses were optimistic. Obviously some elements of proprietary software development still hold true in OSS.

Also amusing: The median guess was April 1, 2002.

Re:Now this is an evil idea!

[mhesseltine]

While this seems funny, I doubt it would work for one simple reason; if someone is submitting bad patches, breaking modules, etc., I would hope that Linus, Alan, Marcello, (insert maintainer here) would quit accepting this person's patches.

After all, that's what the reputation game is all about. Those with talent are revered, those without are shunned until they can prove themselves worthy (probably through a stand-alone project).

Re:How are we supposed to do it?

[ultranova]

Of course you'd have to do heavy editing. However, I do believe that you could make a good movie out of Silmarillion.

Start with the creation of Silmarils, with the backstory told in flashbacks by Morgoth as he watches and starts to lust for them. Follow the elf band that took the northern route to Middle-Earth (more dramatic). Once in Middle-Earth, cull most of the side plots. Luthien and Beren goes in, of course. Basically, keep Morgoth as the central character (as he is the only one who really stays constant in this whole mess.

End with a massive, long battle scene from the War of Wrath.

On second thought... Maybe this isn't such a good idea. Maybe it would work better as a tv series (one story per episode) ? Or maybe make a movie, and put the side stories into TV episodes ?

Or maybe just make the whole thing into a computer game ? At least it wouldn't lack challenge (Mission: Kill all enemies. Your forces: 100 elves. Enemy forces: 100 000 orcs, 100 dragons, 1000 balrogs, 500 vampires, 1 Sauron, 1 Morgoth).