Linux 2.6 Kernel Pool Results

jafo writes "Steve Ratcliffe, Master Software Project Estimator, has most correctly estimated the release of the Linux version 2.6 kernel. On January 6, 2001 (within 4 hours of when the 2.6 kernel pool was opened), he entered a guess which was accurate within 15 hours. Check the results for some interesting statistics and submit your guess for the 2.8 pool." See the original story if you like.

Comments

Missing Pool Option

[Anonymous Coward]

Duke Nukem: Forever release.

At least Linus didn't win ...

[FelixCat]

Since then we would have had proof the competition was fixed!

Re:At least Linus didn't win ...

[MadelineAlbright]

Do you suppose Linus has 2.8.0 hidden away and will bring it out before the election?

But really, I'm just joking!

Re:At least Linus didn't win ...

[horza]

Since then we would have had proof the competition was fixed!

Even if you let the software engineer doing the designing enter the competition, the chances are that his guess will be the furthest off.

Phillip.

Well, made my guess...

[heironymouscoward]

But I'm not saying what it was. Otherwise everyone will want to vote for 29 September 2005!

How are we supposed to do it?

[Storm]

...With no LOTR releases slated for 2005...

Quick, somebody call Peter Jackson. Get him working on a Silmarillion release for December 2005...

M$

[gustgr]

What might had been microsoft guess ? Never ?

Re:M$

[gustgr]

Ohh no ... that was SCO's guess

Guess in the past

[Piggymon]

First guess submitted on 2001-01-06
Most optimistic guess: 2001-01-05 by Bill Segall
Bill, you're a GENIUS!

Call George

[ignipotentis]

And find out when exactly episode 3 will be released.

Finally!

[Guano_Jim]

I, for, one, have been waiting for a swimming pool that can run Linux.

Re:Finally!

[Anonymous Coward]

1. I, for, one, have been waiting for a swimming pool that can run Linux.

Pah! I'm waiting for a shower that runs Linux!

SCO will tell us

[macdaddy]

Just ask McBride when he'll release the 2.8 kernel.

Diebold Machines?

[PincheGab]

Lemme guess... The kernel pool thing was run on Diebold voting machines, right? Give himself a 15 hour discrepancy to not make it look suspicious yet still win... No paper trail... hmmmm...

optimistic or stupid?

[gosand]

Most optimistic guess: 2001-01-05 19:36:18-07 by Bill Segall

Considering that the pool started on 2001-01-06,
"(First guess submitted on 2001-01-06 08:43:00 UTC by Ian Davis)"
could this really be considered optimistic, or just plain stupid?

Re:I don't get it

[Anonymous Coward]

You can still vote, though. Literacy/intelligence requirements are illegal.

Now this is an evil idea!

[SharpFang]

Imagine this, some hacker who takes part in kernel development submits a date, then sabotages the kernel, submits broken modules, introduces bugs, breaks stuff and keeps all the patches on his own harddisk. And finally, when kernel would be ready if not his own purposedly made bugs, he submits his patches one day before his "guessed date" and the kernel is released within next 24 hours, within 2h from his guess and four months later than it could've been released.

Is it me or is their time_t converter 14 hrs off?

[porkrind]

It says to enter the time in GMT, which I did. When I did that, the resulting date came out to be 14 hours earlier from what I entered. Wtf?

It wouldn't be correct even if they're trying to guess my time zone and adjust for that - which would be dumb anyway, otherwise why bother requesting the date in GMT?

Re:2.8.0?

[unborn]

Then the correct answer would be "Never".

What about the GNU/HURD Poll?

[miracle69]

Anyone run a release poll on that?

I wonder if Vegas has odds. If it does, I'd take the over.

Unfair advantage

[kbielefe]

Proprietary software managers have an unfair advantage in this pool. After all, for a living they make release schedules before anyone knows what the new software is actually going to do.

The schedule says we need to finish this in 6 months, but your estimates add up to a year so you'll have to do some stuff in parallel.

Uh, sir, it will still take just as long unless you hire some more staff. Even then, it will take some extra time for training.

But you said these modules were completely independent. You should be able to do two independent tasks in the same amount of time as one. Look how easy it is to schedule it that way in Microsoft Project.

Well, then why don't we all just do 12 at once so it will be done in a month instead of a year?

Don't be silly, it doesn't work that way. The schedule says six months. Boy, for how good you engineers are at algebra and calculus, you sure don't understand the basic mathematics of business.

Re:Interesting statistics...

[cperciva]

You mean shipping later, rather than sooner?

No, I mean "on time, on budget, works properly. Pick none."

Resume title

[unixformat]

To have the title "Master Software Project Estimator" on a resume would have to blow away all the other applicants to a job.

Predict 2.8? Why?

[tellurian]

2.6 ought to be enough for everybody