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Smallpox From The Past

An anonymous reader submits "Earlier this year, librarian Susanne Caro was looking through an 1888 book on United States Civil War medicine and discovered a small envelope labeled 'scabs from vaccination of W.B. Yarrington's children' and signed by Dr. W.D. Kelly, the author of the book. After a bit of research, she realized they might be smallpox scabs used in early live vaccination methods and contacted various officials including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC was excited by the find, because it gives them an untreated specimen from over a century ago, and a chance to look at the disease's evolution. Although the FBI had concerns that the smallpox may have been planted in the book, most of the researchers believe the scabs are too old to be dangerous, and they fear they may not even be able to yield live smallpox."

12 of 211 comments (clear)

  1. uhh by nomadic · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Ok, the FBI thinks someone planted smallpox, in an envelope LABELLED with biohazard information, in a 19th century book, in Santa Fe. What the hell is wrong with them? I mean, that's just moronic.

    1. Re:uhh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Better safe from psychos than sorry?

      Seriously, I'm glad they consider it a possibility, and hopefully prove it wrong.

    2. Re:uhh by fastidious+edward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It is because most mods, like most readers, browse at +2, therfore missing posts that need to be modded up and acting like sheep on posts that already have been.

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      karma karma karma karma karma chameleon, you come and go, you come and go.
    3. Re:uhh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Actually, they were worried the story was
      a hoax by someone who wanted to create fear
      and panic.

      As you might recall, after the US was hit with
      a bioweapons attack (resulting in numerous
      deaths, and the shut down of the U.S. Senate
      offices), it become popular for people to
      "copy cat" the weapon. Soon, people were
      sending packets of white talc power in the
      mail with threatening notes, all in hopes of
      causing a panic and shutting down a business
      for a few days.

      As we've gotten used to this sort of ruse,
      and developed technologies to detect anthrax
      spores, the people trying to spread panic have
      gotten more clever.

      Consider, for example, how hard it would be to
      create panic by sending a note through the mail
      claiming that the envelope contained small
      pox. Since small pox is tightly controlled,
      and highly infectious, it's unlikely a group
      (other than a government) has a sample of the
      virus. So the hoax would quickly unravel.

      A clever person who wanted to create a plausible
      story about how a small pox virus came to be
      found in a public space might have to work
      harder. For example, they could make up a
      story about old medical samples, museum equipment,
      etc.

      And so in this case, it's entirely reasonable
      for the FBI to question the origin of this
      envelope. No, I don't think they started
      out by saying "This was planted by Al Queda."
      Instead, they started with a skeptical
      line of questions: who had the book? was it
      ever check out before? where was it kept?
      who had access to this text? is the person
      claiming to make the find a real librarian?
      etc.

      I think in this case, you, my friend, are the
      one who jumped to conclusions about the
      conduct of the FBI. Indeed, it would seem
      that your post exhibits the sort of haste
      and rush-to-judgement that you seek to
      condemn.

    4. Re:uhh by niko9 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      They are just trying to rule out all the possibilites, and it doesn't hurt to just ask. And if it was found that there was some funny buisness going on you would be the first Monday morning quaterback.

      Never assume anything, stranger things have happened.

      And you comment was modded up +5? This place shold be called the Neverdot Ranch for christs sake.

    5. Re:uhh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful
      Part of the reason they wanted to investigate who might have had the book before is to trace down the possibility of an infection. Consider these scenarios:
      1. A library patron becomes infected after borrowing the book, without their knowledge, and causes a plague.
      2. Al Queda sends out sympathizers to libraries, medical museums, and other storage facilities to find possible specimens, just like this book contained.
      3. A person with a little medical training and a lot of bills to pay decided to collect a few specimens, like those found in this book, and sell them to terrorists (even if the viruses are not live, or are not likely to cause an infection--just so they can scam some money, and the terrorists have a good 'panic' weapon, even if it's not effective).
      4. What if the book mentioned that there are five specimens, and the envelope only contained one... What would you make of that? Is it worth, oh, asking if the librarian took a few for her own private collection? Or if a patron who borrowed the book took some for sale on the black market?

      Don't you think that these scenarios warrant a half hour's worth of questions for the librarian about who had the book? Or do you just take everyone at their word?
    6. Re:uhh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Three cheers for the USA's foreign policy.

  2. Re:scabs by svanstrom · · Score: 3, Insightful
    About the only time you will find scabs in a book and be excited about it. Mostly you'd say "Ok, I'm only going to buy NEW from now on".


    Anthrax in envelopes you didn't expect is one thing, although not easily avoided you can minimize the risks in such situations; but picture terrorists selling things with anthrax in them on sites such as ebay and amazon.com.

    They might not be able to target the people they want, but they could reach 1'000's of people and completely ruin the business of selling used things online.

    Suddenly anyone could be a target of a terroristattack...
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    perl -e'print$_{$_} for sort%_=`lynx -dump svanstrom.com/t`'
  3. Misleading statement in article by mesocyclone · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There's also a slim chance, researchers say, that the scabs could yield live smallpox virus -- believed to reside in only two laboratories in the world

    Only the naive believe that live smallpox exists in only two labs in the world. A more accurate statement in the article would have been "only legally allowed in two labs in the world."

    There is strong reason to believe that North Korea has the virus. France is also believed to have it. Iraq may have had it up until recently, as it was endemic in the region in the late sixties, and just a few scabs in a refrigerator would have been enough. It used to be common practice for scientists and doctors to keep a bit of smallpox in the fridge when they gathered it from patients. Hence there could be samples, possibly not even labelled or known to the owners, in a number of places in the world.

    One reason that the plan to destroy all stocks at the CDC and the official Russian lab was the realization that rogue countries probably had the virus, and hence destroying it would damage future defense attempts.

    Furthermore, the USSR and later Russia maintained stockpiles of 20 tons of weaponized smallpox in the eighties (authorized by Gorbachev) and probably to the present, and loaded it into missile warheads. Furthermore, a number of their scientists have since emigrated to other countries. In 1994 a number visited North Korea for unknown reasons. One former Soviet BW officieal entered into a deal with Iraq to sell 5000 liter fermenters.

    And then we have accidental discoveries like these scabs. Smallpox can survive in scabs for a long time, although >100 years is stretching it.

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    The only good weather is bad weather.

  4. I, For one by geekoid · · Score: 2, Insightful

    welcome are new FBI overlords.

    Seriously, this was probably a routine chit chat thay have when enybody discovers something like this.

    I'm sure they new full well it wasn't a real issue. otherwise it would have been VANS of FBI agents.

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    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  5. Kubrick's Doomsday Device by Latent+Heat · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Why is the heck would the Russians want smallpox or any other bioweapon on an ICBM (I heard Ken Alibek on TV suggesting that it was for ICBM's)? I can understand a nuke because besides killing people, a nuke can take out fortified sites and infrastructure and impair the ability to fight back. Also, a modern ICBM has a high speed pointy-end forward reentry vehicle, unlike the blunt RV's of early RV's. The blunt body RV has less of a heat shield requirement, but its rapid deceleration and slow entry hurts accuracy and makes it vulnerable to anti-missile defense. So if you have a high speed RV, how the heck do you even dispense a biologic agent that it does much harm?

    Also, a biologic agent takes hours if not days to act, allowing for retaliatory strikes, so a biologic ICBM is clearly a kind of Doomsday Machine -- what is to say that the smallbox doesn't spread back to Russia. And you have such a Doomsday Machines, in the words of Peter Sellers, why don't you advertise it to the whole world? What good is a Doomsday Machine that you keep secret?

  6. Re:From strength to strength by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Of all the changes I proposed, dropping the Electoral College is the most "radical", as in the dictionary definition "going to the root". The difference between a republic and a democracy, at least according to Plato, is the difference betwen the people setting the laws directly, and the people setting representatives who set the laws for them. Analogous to a value, and a pointer to a value. Or a libertarian society out of Heinlein's _The Moon is a Harsh Mistress_, with exclusively citizen's arrests, and immediate trials by a jury of witnesses and bystanders, versus selected representatives to do the work of government on behalf of the people, who periodically select those representatives.

    The Electoral College, though, is more like a "handle", a pointer to a pointer (to a value). The people elect Electors, who elect representatives, who elect laws. This design pattern is great for large populations of interchangeable sets of values, within which one repeatedly selects a specific value. Fast, repeated switching, along with clear semantics for the two layers of indirection are requirements for which handles are appropriate. They're also appropriate for very large populations of values, too large in number to address by the limited precision of a simple pointer. Memory spaces larger in magnitude than the bitwidth of the pointer are addressed this way, eg. >4GB RAM in a 32bit pointer to a character. Both of these applications of handles are workarounds for limitations of the addressing scheme. They work well, but when the limitations don't exist, they're unnecessary overkill, confusing, and prone to error, especially when writing new software that doesn't reflect the double-indirection of the handle.

    For the first hundred years or so of the American republic, a handle solved the problem of managing the communication of the large (1-10M+) population. Any timely consensus was "fast" in an age of horses and sail, across half a continent. And breaking the population into manageable tiers of components was absolutely necessary in managing reliable communication using newspapers among the largely illiterate, public speeches among the largely rural, and bean counting boxes among a largely post-feudal population. It was a design decision to overcome problems of implementing a republic on a scale orders of magnitude larger than any experienced by Plato, or anywhere else. It was wise to start the implementation with overkill and scale back, rather than fail early due to an unmanageable complexity. But now it just gets in the way.

    Who can defend any of the elections where the electoral vote misrepresented the popular vote, especially the gamed 2000 presidential election? The Electoral College was a flawed design from the beginning, vulnerable to system gaming. For example, a current book called _Negro President_ analyzes Jefferson's 1801 ascension to the the presidency owing to his electoral victories in the South. His electoral votes were swelled by the 3/5 elector per person value of slaves (who couldn't vote); if only voters were counted, Jefferson would have merely been a brilliant writer and revolutionary. Whether that would have been as good for the country, especially in light of the Louisiana Purchase, is another debate. But the will of the people was subverted by Electoral College manipulation, and continues to be. We don't need it, and its dead weight is helping drag down our country - drop it now.

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    make install -not war