Tech Predictions for 2004

Quirk writes "The Independent has the predictions of Charles Arthur for 2004. 'The ubiquity of the iPod, the return of the Mac, and the simplicity of the portable memory stick are just some of the developments that could change our lives in 2004.'"

Comments

Better predictions

[sane?]

I think he's indulged a bit too much over Christmas. Here's some better predictions:

• ipod and mini ipod will be hit by a wave of cheap replacements that both allow you to store/play music AND video. These will integrate with mobile phones (2G).
• Multi processor machines will begin to take off in the business environment. Single user, multi machine setups will smooth the rollout of Linux/OpenOffice and make people more productive
• Appliances that take advantage of home broadband links and WiFi will take off.
• Microsoft will get scared, and will run towards early launch of XBox 2 as a home machine. Failure will spell the fall of Microsoft.
• The Apple House will be unveiled

more FUD?

[grubi]

* At least one other download store will join Apple in using the Dolby "AAC" encoding format, because that's the only way to reach iPod owners.

Um, hello? What? MP3 works perfectly well on iPods. Always has. Why is AAC the "only way" to reach iPod users?

Re:Anyone find it strange?

[pigpilot]

If by "careers working with computers" you mean doing more than just using them, i.e. writing software etc then I'm not surprised. Every major business that I can think of relies more on telephones and plumbing but relatively few people need to make a career out of them.

For most of us computers are just a tool that help us get on with our job, and like most tools they are rarely a career in themselves.

Re:Pointless and dumb!

[znu]

The top five MP3 players for November, according to IDC:

1. 10GB Apple iPod
   
2. 128MB Digitalway
   
3. 20GB Apple iPod
   
4. 128MB iRiver
   
5. 40GB Apple iPod
   

So, Apple's got three out of the top five. And that's despite the fact that the cheapest iPod costs more than twice as much as the iRiver or Digitalway.

Re:IPod

[ircShot_guN]

Ipod is actually extremely good value for money.

$100 for a 256meg Portable Mp3 Player = 40 cents per megabyte.
$500 for a 40gig Ipod = 1.25 cents per megabyte.

Provided your legal music collection is at least 1.25 gigabytes in size, you end up with the same value for money, and I know which one is cooler.

Re:Good prediction...

[ravy]

Those already exist.

Although I haven't tried them personally.

Knoppix USB

[Guiri]

Have a look at this. You can boot Knoppix (or a stripped down version) from a USB memory stick. Cheers.

When it comes to viruses, he gets it but doesn't..

[MadAnthony02]

I agree with what he said about viruses - that there will be more viruses out there that send spam, steal credit card info, steal passwords, ect. I'm not sure about his claim that those virus writers will be members of organized crime, though.

However, he also says that viruses won't be that destructive because people who have made recent viruses didn't have them destroy hard drives when they could have. What he ignores is that a virus that destroys it's host is pretty much useless, because it no longer has that host. Viruses like Blaster and Sinkin are dangerous and destructive because they continue to spread for months while the user does not know they are infected. If the virus killed it's host quickly it would not spread nearly as much.

Cringley's (past) predictions for 2003

[sacrilicious]

... can be found here.