Tech Predictions for 2004

Quirk writes "The Independent has the predictions of Charles Arthur for 2004. 'The ubiquity of the iPod, the return of the Mac, and the simplicity of the portable memory stick are just some of the developments that could change our lives in 2004.'"

Comments

Anyone find it strange?

[cubicledrone]

Practically the entirety of business now relies on computers for just about everything, yet few, if any, can find careers working with computers?

Boom in Computer-linked home security devices

[Cryofan]

There will likely continue to be an increase in crime due to several factors, such as increasing poverty because of neoliberal economic policies, and also due to importation of poverty from 3rd world, which also lowers wages.

I predict that this increasing poverty will cause a boom in home and auto security devices which are linked to personal computers in order to provide more sophisticated theft deterrents. For example, motion detectors which transmit detected motion signals to a personal computer via serial port or USB interface via either wireless transmission or signal wires.

The motion detected signals will be detected by software that will be able to be configured by an unsophisticated user to take actions that will scare off burglars. For example, play useful sound files output to speakers outside. The sound files might be randomly selected files that sound like a security officer talking to a dispatched about an intruder.

Also the computer could communicate with relays and stepper motors via via serial port or USB interface to turn on and move in a random, jerky manner an outside floodlight.

There are some products currently out now that can provide these deterrents, but they typically too expensive, unreliable, or too hard to use right now.

Re:ugh

[znu]

There's one thing a picture phone does very well: it lets you take a picture and immediately send it to someone, from anywhere. Right now, to do that with two separate devices, you need a laptop to mediate between them. Hopefully digital camera makers will eventually hit on the idea of adding Bluetooth to their cameras, so they can send pictures directly to phones.

Until then, I'll hang on to my Nokia 3650.

Processor wars

[sparklingfruit]

This year is the year we go 64 bit! Which is actually quite a big thing (remember when we went 32 bit?)

The rivalry between AMD and Intel is getting pretty intense, and they're level right now. Who do you think will end up on top by this time next year?

It's going to be down to If I had to say, I would vouch for Intel. They have the money and tech. I do love AMDs inexpensive chips though. It will be good to see who brings the world into 64-bit and who screws up.

camera phones

[LowTolerance]

Camera phones will never be that big. I work at a cell phone store, and the only people interested in buying one are people too young to sign on a contract. Sure, we sell some here and there, but most people see no need for it, because there isn't one. My thinking is that PDA phones and smart phones are the next big thing. They have the benefit of actually having added functionality.

New Predictions ?

[EpsCylonB]

The ubiquity of the iPod, the return of the Mac, and the simplicity of the portable memory stick

Haven't all these happened already ?

Brain virus

[thefinite]

I don't see Apple surviving past 2005.

I don't see you making much headway as a fortune-teller, let alone a business analyst. (I know, "same difference")

I have decided that the "Apple is dying" thing is a disease. It has to be some sort of brain-inhabiting virus that just keeps moving from host to host. No matter what you do to stamp it out (facts, figures, lobotomies), it has already moved on to the next susceptible (i.e. apple-bashing, close-minded) brain. I guess we will have to live with it. It almost makes me wish Apple did die, just so these people will finally *shut up*.

(By the way, in between the PPC, iMac, and G5 you have things like the Titanium Powerbook, iMovie and all of the other amazing iApps, OS X, and, of course, the iPod and iTunes Music Store. So, yes, your theory is a bunch of garbage.)

Re:It's that easy?

[shplorb]

So, if I buy these Apple products and flash memory, my life will change and this gaping chasm which plagues my existance will be gone forever?

To look at or touch Apple products is to experience the ultimate consumer orgasm - some sort of weird love-like feeling, where you can't help but feel good about forking over a wad of cash for the product that you've survived for years without, but now that you've held it you know that you can't live without it.

Or maybe it's more like crack... they give you a freebie (test drive in the store) and then you'll do anything to get your hands on one.

All I know is that I'm saving up for a dual G5 and iPod to complement my iBook =]

Damn...some good predictions for once

[Spoing]

I was expecting some lame article, and true many of the predictions are of the "Duh..." variety, though a few were quite interesting as well as plausable;

1. * USB "flash memory" sticks (which you plug in to a port on a computer to provide extra storage space) will become very popular, and applications will be released that can be stored on them to run on any computer without altering its settings. Presently, 256Mb costs 125; expect that to halve this year. You could soon carry a stripped-down operating system in your pocket to boot any machine to look like yours. In the long term, this could lead to stripped-down computers where the machine holds no important data; it'd all be on the USB stick.

That's something I'm looking into and it is very interesting. 256M, though, is not enough. A 1G USB stick could be the sweet spot for having both apps, data, and (optionally) an entire OS. At current prices for 1G sticks, though, I can't see many people doing it so development will be stalled.

Most apps need to be installed or require a runtime environment that has to be installed

To boot a USB stick currently requires BIOS changes or a boot diskette/CD and waiting. The alternative is to have a VM of some sort 'run' the OS as a guest.

Fixing either of these issues seamlessly will take awhile...probably won't happen in 2004.

Re:Apple's successes?

[MoonBuggy]

They've been a bit down and not that special for a while in the past, but they've come back up I reckon they're gonna keep going up now. For the first time since Win 95 the world at large is just beginning to look at alternatives. OSS has it's inherent problems in the eyes of the companies who may use it (both founded and unfounded worries). Apple has released OSX in a few incarnations, all of which are pretty damn nice, filling the gap nicely when companies want to update their infrastructure.

When high capacity MP3 players are bulky and ugly they come out with iPod series 1. After the hype goes away they swoop in again with more capacity and Windows compatability. Finally they tie it in with the ITMS placating the music industry while locking people into paying them for music rather than any other download service. They don't even get hate mail for this lock in because, quite frankly, their product is good enough that people don't really want to bother with the inferior alternatives. How many people have you heard grumbling that they can't move from ITMS to Napster 2?

When 64 Bit is coming to be not only the next big thing but also buzzword of the day, the G5 comes out and holds its own because, once again, its a damn good product.

Next year the iPod moves into the low end arena and stands to smash the competition if it's priced right and done well (which it probably will be).