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More Linux Predictions for 2004

Posted by michael on from the story-so-nice-we-ran-it-twice dept.

An anonymous reader writes "Experts, shmexperts - it's time for the Linux community's own predictions, felt the editors of LinuxWorld Magazine. Prognostications in their Jan 2004 round-up cover media players ('turning your phone into an iPod will be hot by the end of 2004'), IPOs ('Of course, LinuxCertified, Inc'), and MS ('Microsoft will start an intensive campaign to promote their Longhorn technology as Linux standards compliant') - that last is one from Samba's John Terpstra." The original story was back in November.

6 of 325 comments (clear)

  1. I predict.. by MosesJones · · Score: 5, Interesting


    Sun and IBM will be considered the biggest Linux players by the end of 2004, and that Linux will be installed on Mac like numbers of corporate desktops (corporate not techy).

    I also predict the return of thin-clients to the corporate environment, especially in large outsourcing contracts.

    --
    An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
    1. Re:I predict.. by MosesJones · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Disagree...

      IBM don't want to own a release they want to build on top of both SuSE and Red Hat, Sun will do the same. This will enable both SuSE and Red Hat to get good profits BUT... will ensure competition between them managed by the big two, thus preventing anyone becoming Microsoft. IBM will release, and support, Desktop versions released on Red Hat and SuSE to corporate customers depending on where they are based.

      Sun runs around 20,000 people off thin clients, and most of their laptop users are moving over to Java Desktop (really Linux).

      Think of it this way...

      Microsoft make money out of the desktop and want to make money out of the server using .NET, .NET only works on Windows.

      Sun and IBM make money out of the server, and want to continue to make money on the server. They make money out of J2EE based applications on those servers which runs on anything.

      If you kill Windows on the desktop you kill .NET, and killing it in this context means getting a significant enough share to make businesses question solutions that are purely windows based (say 10%+ should do it, 25% is the sweet number though). So how do IBM and Sun do this ? They release full desktop suites at a fraction of the price of windows (Sun will give you $150 a seat for their whole enterprise stack including desktop, office, email, application server, directory etc etc).

      Now the one thing that stands in the way here is Outlook, love it or hate it it does do calendaring and email, with task lists and that Exchange server is the thing that really stops people moving over. The Sun system kicks Exchange into touch.. but an open source solution that gets decent penetration would further help here. If Sun Messaging or Domino gain share in the next 12 months this will be indicative of companies looking to move away from Windows.

      The Sun and IBM plan is in many ways about killing .NET, not Windows.

      --
      An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
  2. One of the things that would be nice... by Sheetrock · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I'd like it if the Linux community could be a bit more persuasive with companies releasing Linux-related things to make them, well, more Linux friendly.

    Linux, for me, peaked in usability/reliability in 1999. It's still quite useful, but I began experiencing many more compatibility problems since that point.

    I have a video card whose driver is closed. I've got multiple peripherals that are only partially implemented because manufacturers for some reason are reluctant to release information to developers. It's great as-is, don't get me wrong, but participating on the Internet has gotten much harder as everybody decides to go proprietary and tug in different directions.

    For example, Flash runs slower on Linux; so slow that it causes the sound to go out of sync (related bug that also seems to bite some Windows installs: this applet and those coded like it have audio that is too quiet). Java is still a real pain to get working right. Maybe the greatest thing that's happened this year is Mozilla/Firebird, but I'm running it without add-ons!

    I believe only great things are to come, what with Linux having reached 2.6.0, and greatly appreciate all the developers have done for it. Now, I think it'd be nice if others began to support it.

    --

    Try not. Do or do not, there is no try.
    -- Dr. Spock, stardate 2822-3.




  3. Torvalds will be... by EduardoFonseca · · Score: 5, Funny

    ... hired by Microsoft. RMS and ESR will join the SCO legal team. Bill Gates will get even fatter. Steve Ballmer will resign from MS and join some wicked monkey-dance group.

    slashdot.org will be bought by Fox News. CowboyNeal will become a Fox News Anchor.

    The world will collapse.

  4. Perhaps... by Oen_Seneg · · Score: 5, Funny

    ...Steve Ballmer gets drunk and decides to open source all of Microsoft's products.

  5. Re:Slackware is almost where it's at... by commodoresloat · · Score: 5, Funny
    When I tried fedora I was pleasantly surprised. Nobody came to my door to rape my cat and beat my wife or anything.

    Are you sure you installed it correctly?