Cringely's 2004 Predictions

somethinghollow writes "Cringely's 2004 Predictions are out, and he makes a very interesting claim concerning Linux: 'The SCO debacle has created a crisis within the Linux community. They pretend that it hasn't, but it has. This will come to a head in 2004 with either the development of a new organizational structure for Linux or the start of its demise. Linux has to grow or die, and the direction it takes will be determined in 2004.' With a claimed 70% successful prediction rate, you at least have to listen..."

Comments

I like this prediction...

[Anonymous Coward]

I predicted that Microsoft's Palladium security plan, now called Trustworthy Computing, would be distrusted and stall. That looks right to me.

Predicting that a microsoft security product isn't reliable? Predicting that a microsoft product is late?

Cringley is THE ORACLE!!

Give Me A Break...

[Bowie J. Poag]

"They like to pretend that it hasn't, but it has."

Yeah, just like I pretend that Cringley doesn't matter, but he does.

Non-prediction

[wine]

Linux has to grow or die: how can this be not true?

I mean, isn't this like saying that the temperature tomorrow will either be lower of higher than today?

Re:Non-prediction

[bj8rn]

He should just as well have put these predictions in quatrain.

I. At the end of the year,
Two choose new and one
Will try to abuse, but
Cause in them no fear.

II.No man will be killed
By means of net, but
Many with their money
Will be parted.

III. The mail of lightning
Will useless be, so Big
Red something new proposes.
But beware of traps!

IV. Old things abandoned will be,
And this many in danger
Will certainly leave.
A rusty knife can still kill.

Need I go on?

Off to a bad start

[ozbird]

Come back in 365 more days and see how I did.

As 2004 is a leap year with 366 days, I'm guessing Cringely will get this prediction wrong...