Yellowstone Super-Eruption Threat Debunked

GennyCream writes "The Internet has been all a-buzz with tin-foil-hat geeks have been in a tizzy over supposed government coverups of a soon-to-come super eruption in Yellowstone (especially see The Shadow Confederacy, but also Rense.com, or BlackVault for entertaining examples). I found an article on ATSNN.com (the Above Top Secret News Network) that cut the paranoia with the proverbial knife and went straight to the source. Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."

Comments

Geological Time

[yintercept]

I pretty much hold with the crowd that predicts massive volcanic eruptions, shifting of plates, the erosion of entire mountain ranges, massive glaciation, massive floods...big canyons being carved in deserts, cities sinking under the ocean, deserts turning to forests, forests turning to desert and every single thing you can imagine.

The sad thing is that I only get to live a human life span and will miss most of it.

BTW, there is a hot spot under Yellowstone and big cinder cones and a lot of lave flows in Idaho. I think there is a better than average changes of some major event in a short geological time frame.

Re:Geological Time

[BWJones]

BTW, there is a hot spot under Yellowstone and big cinder cones and a lot of lave flows in Idaho. I think there is a better than average changes of some major event in a short geological time frame.

Oh, there absolutely is, and its a whopper. What do you think is driving all the geysers? The real issue this poster was raising however was a more discrete event in the predictable near future, thus my post. At some point, the magma chamber may indeed break through, but there is no advanced knowledge of when that is going to be and certainly no conspiracy.

Bias and Progress?

[core plexus]

I'm an exploration geologist, and have experience with many facets of geoscience, such as geochemistry, geophysics, and other fields (excuse the pun).

One thing I have encountered is the bias, whereby someone is so in love with a theory that they are blind to the fair maden that comes along later. It's hard to let go of the comfortable setup you have built over the years, and when some fresh outsider comes along and tells you different, it gets the blood boiling.

I have encountered this with grizzled old prospectors who were positive they had found the next Sudbury or Ft. Knox, as well as 'cultured, educated' folks who have spent most of their time in the drawing room discussing theory. I have found numerous rich deposits, but due to economics, politics, or other obstacles, most shall remain ummined for now. In most cases, I dispensed with current trends and went back to the old stuff.

Too often, someone will arrive at a "conclusion" that might look good at the time, but prove to be very wrong later. So what? Someone has to get it wrong. But one has to be able to release that burning stick.

The Earth has many very serious events in its' past. We can expect more, and we have truly been living in a period of relative peacefulness. I've been to Yellowstone many times, and know what it is like to slip into a pool heated by the Earth, while Elk and Bison graze nearby. Been to Crater Lake, too. Now THAT was a big ol explosion, but it happened way before I got there. I've been in 3 volcanic eruptions, 2 in Alaska. It's quite exciting. One time I raced an oncoming cloud of ash.

Funny, but when I read this I thought of the people I read of near Mt. St. Helens, and some friends I had in the Phillipines.

-cp-

Don't forget the "classic" BBC supervolcano report

[alienmole]

Here's the BBC documentary on supervolcanoes. The link to the transcript is at the bottom of the page.

The interview above simply debunks the idea that there are currently any clues that an eruption is imminent (although much of it seemed to say "we're not measuring that"). However, there really is a giant magma chamber under Yellowstone, and if it ever breached in the right (or wrong) way, the continental US would be toast, and the rest of the planet would experience a nuclear winter style scenario.

Depending on how you project the historical numbers, we may already be overdue for the next eruption. Then again, the margin for error is measured in millenia, so it's a little like the major asteroid strike scenario: it could happen anytime, but it probably won't.

Long Valley Caldera

[Mahonrimoriancumer]

I think it is funny how many people are obsessed with the volcanic activity in Yellowstone but completely ignore the Long Valley Caldera. From the USGS website:

Earthquake activity in the Long Valley area of eastern California increased greatly after 1978. ... Since 1980, typical background geologic activity in the Long Valley area has included as many as 20 earthquakes of magnitude 2 or smaller a day, occasional swarms of magnitude 3 and larger earthquakes (felt locally), and uplift of the center of Long Valley Caldera at a rate of about 1 inch per year. Swarms including magnitude 4 earthquakes may occur about once a year.

This past semester in my geology class we did an in depth study about volcanos and this caldera in particular. My professor has a great deal of enthusiasm about this supervolcano because it is most likely going to erupt within the next 50-100 years.

Re:Long Valley Caldera

[WhiteBandit]

Yes, but the caldera itself isn't very likely to erupt. What you would get is a relatively small (as far as volcanic eruptions go) eruption at Mammoth Mountain or at one of the craters in a chain that runs to the north.

Volcanic activity has occured there within the last 600 years or so as well. Just take a short drive up 395 to Obsidian Dome. That pile of obsidian wasn't there 600 years ago! What is actually interesting is that you can sit on top of Obsidian Dome and look north towards Mono Lake and you will see a series of similiar looking hills that form the Mono-Inyo Craters.

There is a lot of evidence that there is magma beneath the ground. From various earthquake swarms, to the hot springs towards the south to the treekill at Horseshow Lake.

Anyway, check out the USGS's outlook on the Long Valley Caldera and also browse around the .