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The Myth Of The 100-Year CD-Rom

Toshito writes "Are we putting too much faith in the ubiquitous "recordable CD", or CD-R? A lot of manufacturer claims 100 years of shelf life for a CD-R. But in real life, it can be much less. Expect failure after only 5 years... Personnaly I just discovered 6 audio cassettes with the voice of my late grandfather, talking about old times. These tapes are copies of reel to reel recorded in 1971, and they are still in excellent shape. I was thinking about digitizing everything, do a little noise reduction, and burning this on CD's, for my childrens and great grand-childrens enjoyment, but it seems that old analog tech from the '70 is more reliable than digital. The full story at Rense. Other links about the subject: Practical PC, Mscience, and an excellent reasearch by the Library of Congress (warning! PDF): Study of CD longevity, html version (google):Study html."

30 of 671 comments (clear)

  1. Nonsense! by Kris+Thalamus · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I was thinking about digitizing everything, do a little noise reduction, and burning this on CD's, for my childrens and great grand-childrens enjoyment, but it seems that old analog tech from the '70 is more reliable than digital.

    Record it to your HDD in an non-lossy format and store copies of it on various friends' and family members' computers. Back up frequently and your recordings won't suffer from the kind of decay and generation loss that analog tape does.

    1. Re:Nonsense! by cuzality · · Score: 5, Informative

      Well, the recordings *will* go through decay, but that's what the constant backing-up process is about. Your basic point is right on the money, though.

      The only way to keep bits in any kind of order and in good condition over a long period of time with the kind of technology available to the average consumer is to keep making multiple fresh copies before each individual storage media begins to suffer loss of data.

    2. Re:Nonsense! by Neon+Spiral+Injector · · Score: 5, Funny

      What happens when the amount time it takes to transfer all the data from one medium to another is longer than the life time of the media on which it currently resides?

    3. Re:Nonsense! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Whether CDs last a long time or not is really missing the point. The benefit of going digital is that the data can be backed up.

      If you're oriented on the media you're forever on the upgrade path. Should you move the collection to DVDs? But wait, blue light DVDs are right around the corner. It will never end.

      120Gbyte hard disks are getting cheap. This trend will continue. What you store something on will literally become unimportant. The only important thing that will remain is still: how well is it backed up?

    4. Re:Nonsense! by Fweeky · · Score: 5, Informative

      You're better off storing audio as FLAC or so; the format's open, lossless, streamable, error checking, robust, and has a proper metadata standard. Use the space it saves to make a bunch of PAR2's, and you're laughing.

      Support for this stuff's not going to disappear overnight; you can keep specifications and reference implementations about if need be.

    5. Re:Nonsense! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What happens when the amount time it takes to transfer all the data from one medium to another is longer than the life time of the media on which it currently resides?

      Then obviously you couldn't have copied all the data to the "current" medium in the first place.

    6. Re:Nonsense! by penguinstorm · · Score: 5, Interesting

      This is, of course, the very thing the comment points out can be a problem.

      Who's really going to remember this schedule? /. maybe; my mother - not.

      This is my beef with digital photography: I found a negative for a photo that was taken sometime between 1891 & 1934 - prints were beautiful. This negative was not stored properly at all. No special effort to preserve.

      With digital photography & CD-R disks I'm not so sure that we're not just creating a set of transient memories which will disappear into the ephemera in 10 years time.

      --
      Skot Nelson music is my saviour / i was maimed by rock and roll
    7. Re:Nonsense! by SEWilco · · Score: 5, Funny
      He needs a quantum storage device.
      They store all possible data at the same time, and when you need a file it somehow produces the right file.

      However, he probably doesn't have enough cats.

    8. Re:Nonsense! by Phisbut · · Score: 5, Funny
      How about this. Take your file, serialize it so it's a huge list of 1's and 0's, then pick up a cardboard card, divide it in the number of bits you have in your file, then punch a hole in the sections you need 1's and leave it untouched in the sections you need 0's.

      Paper can last for thousands of years... this could be a good solution for long-term storage... right?

      --
      After 3 days without programming, life becomes meaningless
      - The Tao of Programming
    9. Re:Nonsense! by Safety+Cap · · Score: 5, Interesting
      In effect, you have to keep running just in order to stay in the same place. (I believe there's a reference here to the Alice books of Lewis Carroll)
      That is a condition known as "The Red Queen's Race":
      Alice never could quite make out, in thinking it over afterwards, how it was that they began: all she remembers is, that they were running hand in hand, and the Queen went so fast that it was all she could do to keep up with her: and still the Queen kept crying "Faster!" but Alice felt she could not go faster, though she had no breath to say so. The most curious part of the thing was, that the trees and the other things round them never changed their places at all: however fast they went, they never seemed to pass anything. "I wonder if all the things move along with us?" thought poor puzzled Alice. And the Queen seemed to guess her thoughts, for she cried, "Faster! Don't try to talk!"

      Not that Alice had any idea of doing that. She felt as if she would never be able to talk again, she was getting so out of breath: and still the Queen cried, "Faster! Faster!" and dragged her along. "Are we nearly there?" Alice managed to pant out at last.

      "Nearly there!" the Queen repeated. "Why, we passed it ten minutes ago! Faster!" And they ran on for a time in silence, with the wind whistling in Alice's ears, and almost blowing her hair off her head, she fancied.

      "Now! Now!" cried the Queen. "Faster! Faster!" And they went so fast that at last they seemed to skim through the air, hardly touching the ground with their feet, till suddenly, just as Alice was getting quite exhausted, they stopped, and she found herself sitting on the ground, breathless and giddy. The Queen propped her against a tree, and said kindly, "You may rest a little now."

      Alice looked round her in great surprise. "Why, I do believe we've been under this tree all the time! Everything's just as it was!"

      "Of course it is," said the Queen: "what would you have it?"

      "Well, in our country," said Alice, still panting a little, "you'd generally get to somewhere else -- if you ran very fast for a long time, as we've been doing."

      "A slow sort of country!" said the Queen. "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"

      -- Carrol, Lewis. Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There. Peter Pauper Press edition, Mount Vernon, New York 1940. 45-47.
      --
      Yeah, right.
  2. CD Rot by Liselle · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The story about the Rot of Death seems to come up every once and a while. My fun strategies for longevity:

    - If you can rub the top of a CD and have your finger come back silver, that's a bad sign. I avoid cheap CD-Rs. Sorry, CompUSA.
    - I burn at 2x, always, unless I am burning something that I don't care about. Someone showed me the difference in color, I was convinced.
    - Sticker on top = CD death.
    - Take care of your media. Had a friend who left a CD on the windowsill and forgot about it. Many months later, you could see right through it. Nice corrosion.

    I find it weird that anyone can stick a 100 year lifespan on a product that hasn't been around that long. I know that they have processes that supposedly accelerate the process and give you a rough estimate, but I am skeptical. Maybe they really are that durable, and people are just careless/cheapskates. You know what they say about malice and idiocy.

    --
    Auto-reply to ACs: "Truly, you have a dizzying intellect."
    1. Re:CD Rot by bgalehouse · · Score: 5, Informative
      As of a few months ago you could certainly still get gold reflecting layers with Phthalocyanine dye, though you have to pay for it. I ordered 100 Mitsui gold's (now apparently called MAM-A) from dsgi for digital photo archival.


      I have to burn them at less than max speed, apparently the more stable dye requires more laser power. Otherwise no surprises so far. (knock on wood)

  3. Using RIAA math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    The 100 year CD-ROM becomes a 27 million year CD-ROM, and they plan to have their copyrights extended that far.

  4. Solution! by Morgahastu · · Score: 5, Funny

    Store them on a series of floppy diskettes. They have proven to be VERY reliable. ;)

  5. Doooom(esday)! by llamaguy · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Factor that in with the project the BBC did in the mid-1980s (A digital Domesday book, designed to be a snapshot of life at that particular moment of time) that was unreadable withing 20 years because of the fast pace of technology and no way will CDs last 100 years.

    --
    HAH! I just wasted a second of your life making you read this, but I wasted a minute of mine thinking it up. DAMN.
  6. date, reburn, rinse, repeat by wren337 · · Score: 5, Interesting


    Blank CDs in bulk are cheap. For archival stuff I make a new copy every 5 years. I have a bunch of scanned photos I don't want to lose, so I re-copied them all onto new CDs.

    You aren't supposed to write on the CDs either but I've not had any trouble with that, probably because I'm not trying to keep them very long.

  7. Eternal archiving. by Guano_Jim · · Score: 5, Funny

    Rename the MP3s of your grandfather's voice to coors_twins_baby_oil.mpg and put it on Kazaa.

    Repeat every year with the current cover girls of Maxim, Stuff, or whatever men's mag suits your fancy.

    Guarantee you'll never be at a loss for a copy of dear old granddad.

  8. Old formats require old machines by thoth · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The danger in "old" storage formats is lack of machines to read them. Those tapes may be in good shape, and so might the data on an 8" floppy I have, but the 8" floppy is effectively lost to me because I don't have easy access to a drive that can read it anymore! The paper tape programs I "printed" out from a VAX PDP-11 are probably good (if I hadn't lost them years ago) but I can't get to a tape reader, etc.

    You almost have to make dozens of copies of data on a modern cheap format, and keep moving it forward.

  9. First of all... by unperson · · Score: 5, Insightful

    How do you know there is no loss with analog?

    Analog quality loss is acceptable, because it results in static. Digital loss isn't acceptable, because (at least practically) it is a binary property...the CD works or it doesn't. Scratch the hell out of a record, and at least you still have something.

    We could build acceptable redundancy into digital backups, its just that most people think of it as wasteful. You know what though?... I have everything worthy of backup "backed up" in at least 3 places, one of which is always CD stored somewhere out of reach. Digital is better. Once you convert to digital, you can have zero quality loss with near 100% efficiency, you just have to want it that bad.

  10. Analog Audio is not a fair comparison by dankney · · Score: 5, Informative

    It's not exactly a fair comparison between CD-R and analog tape for audio. The audio tape isn't "more reliable." It just degrades differently.

    As the tape ages, the quality of the audio signal degrades dramatically, but because it is an analogue signal, it can still be deciphered by or ears.

    With digital medium, the audio never gets worse. As the media degrades, it just reaches a point where it isn't able to be deciphered as audio data.

    If you want to compare the mediums (magnetic tape vs. CR-R), data is probably a better place to do so. You can easily measure the amount of readable/unreadable data in bytes and make a fair, quantifiable comparison.

  11. You're citing Rense.com as an authority? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    The first link is to rense.com, a website that promulgates the theory that the US government is experimenting on us with "chem trails" emitted by otherwise innocuous-looking aircraft flying overhead. The webmaster at that site obviously has a very low threshold for rubbish, and no critical thinking ability!

  12. Why 100 years ? by da_reboot · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I don't get this obsession with hoping to keep media for 100 years. Technically punch cards are forever. Do you still use them ? No, because their storage capacity is ridiculous by today's standard. In five years you will store your data probably on your solid-state 200 g key-chain.... move with the times..

  13. Archive the raw samples! by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 5, Informative
    I've said this before, but it bears repeating: do not filter or otherwise "enhance" the audio files before you store them. Instead, save them losslessly, hisses, pops, and all.

    Audio processing technology will get better. Don't ruin your grandkids' heirloom recordings by using today's technology to permanently alter them.

    Make working copies and filter those as much as you want, but keep those masters pristine! Maybe somewhere in the background you can hear your grandma yelling at dear ol' grandpa to put that thing away and paint the house, and a clumsy run with an agressive low-pass filter will throw that data away forever. You have something really valuable; please take care of it for the future.

    --
    Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
  14. Burning at 2x... by ajutla · · Score: 5, Informative

    Although it seems like burning at a slower speed means that your data lasts longer, for some newer CDs burning at 2x might actually cause your data to be less secure. Most CDs sold nowadays are optimized for faster burns, say at 48x. The "fast" media doesn't handle slow burn speeds quite as well as older media optimized for 2x would.

  15. Re:As Linus Said by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    "Real men don't use backups, they post their stuff on a public ftp server and let the rest of the world make copies." - Linus Torvalds

  16. Writing speed by cdrguru · · Score: 5, Informative
    If you get a $20K+ testing system and a large number of CD-R samples, write them at various speeds and check the results, you will find that writing at a speed other than the "optimal" for the recorder results in a measurable degradation in the quality of the recording. This sort of testing has been done at Media Sciences (www.mscience.com

    This means that if you have a 2X recorder, writing at 2X is *much* better than 1X. If you have a 32X recorder, writing at 32X will produce measurably better discs than writing at 4X, 2X or 1X. This has been true since around 1998 or so. It is quite true that you could get better results with some early 4X recorders when writing at 1X than 4X. However, none of those devices are current any longer.

    The "writing slower is better" story is a myth. Please don't spread it further. And yes, if you want more information about disc testing Media Sciences is a company that is dedicated to disc quality and testing. I do not work for them.

  17. Re:NIST Study by CyberLord+Seven · · Score: 5, Informative

    Sharpies should be OK as they are alchohol based. Beware of any "oil" based permanent markers as they will degrade the surface plastic.

    --
    We have always been at war with Eurasia!
  18. Andy McFadden's CD-R FAQ says... by antdude · · Score: 5, Informative
    From Subject: [7-5] How long do CD-Rs and CD-RWs last?
    (2004/02/17) in CD-Recordable FAQ:

    CD-RWs are expected to last about 25 years under ideal conditions (i.e. you write it once and then leave it alone). Repeated rewrites will ccelerate
    this. In general, CD-RW media isn't recommended for long-term backups or archives of valuable data.

    The rest of this section applies to CD-R.

    The manufacturers claim 75 years (cyanine dye, used in "green" discs), 100 years (phthalocyanine dye, used in "gold" discs), or even 200 years
    ("advanced" phthalocyanine dye, used in "platinum" discs) once the disc has been written. The shelf life of an unrecorded disc has been estimated at
    between 5 and 10 years. There is no standard agreed-upon way to test discs for lifetime viability. Accelerated aging tests have been done, but they may not provide a meaningful analogue to real-world aging.

    Exposing the disc to excessive heat, humidity, or to direct sunlight will greatly reduce the lifetime. In general, CD-Rs are far less tolerant of environmental conditions than pressed CDs, and should be treated with greater care. The easiest way to make a CD-R unusable is to scratch the
    top surface. Find a CD-R you don't want anymore, and try to scratch the top (label side) with your fingernail, a ballpoint pen, a paper clip, and
    anything else you have handy. The results may surprise you.

    Keep them in a cool, dark, dry place, and they will probably live longer than you do (emphasis on "probably"). Some newsgroup reports have complained of discs becoming unreadable in as little as three years, but without knowing how the discs were handled and stored such anecdotes are
    useless. Try to keep a little perspective on the situation: a disc that degrades very little over 100 years is useless if it can't be read in your
    CD-ROM drive today.

    One user reported that very inexpensive CD-Rs deteriorated in a mere six weeks, despite careful storage. Some discs are better than others.

    An interesting article by Fred Langa (of http://www.langa.com/) on http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.j html?articleID=15800263&pgno=1
    describes how to detect bad discs, and discusses whether putting an adhesive label on the disc causes them to fail more quickly.

    By some estimates, pressed CD-ROMs may only last for 10 to 25 years, because the aluminum reflective layer starts to corrode after a while.

    One user was told by Blaupunkt that CD-R discs shouldn't be left in car CD players, because if it gets too hot in the car the CD-R will emit a gas that can blind the laser optics. However, CD-Rs are constructed much the same way and with mostly the same materials as pressed CDs, and the temperatures required to cause such an emission from the materials that are exposed would
    melt much of the car's interior. The dye layer is sealed into the disc, and should not present any danger to drive optics even if overheated.
    Even so, leaving a CD-R in a hot car isn't good for the disc, and will probably shorten its useful life.

    See also http://www.cd-info.com/CDIC/Technology/CD-R/Media/ Longevity.html,
    especially http://www.cd-info.com/CDIC/Industry/news/media-ch ronology.html about some inaccurate reporting in the news media.

    See "Do gold CD-R discs have better longevity than green discs?" on http://www.mscience.com/faq53.html.

    --
    Ant(Dude) @ Quality Foraged Links (AQFL.net) & The Ant Farm (antfarm.ma.cx / antfarm.home.dhs.org).
  19. Re:MAM-A "gold" metallized layer is aluminum not g by bgalehouse · · Score: 5, Informative

    Umm... what literature would that be? There is a white paper which explicitly states that the reflective later is 24k gold.

  20. Re:As Linus Said by SEWilco · · Score: 5, Funny

    Real men write stuff that the rest of the world wants to copy.