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MMOG Subscription Winners, Losers Analyzed
Thanks to CorpNews for its recent round-up analyzing and rating the biggest PC massively multiplayer games. Along with subscription estimates similar to the SirBruce analysis graph, there's sharp-tongued comments on performance for Ultima Online ("It's really all your fault. If you weren't a big hit, would others have followed?"), EverQuest ("Say what you will... it knew its target audience and hit it hard enough to make EQ part of popular culture"), and Asheron's Call ("Talk about the little engine that could.")
Careful there. I learned long ago if you really enjoy something one of the worst things that can happen is that it gets very popular.
If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
the number of people subscribing to MMOGs has increased from 450,000 players in 2000 to over 2.5 to 6 million today Perhaps it's just a typo.
PP is an awesome game...however, you and I are the only ones playing it.
It is a very small game, Apreche. Compared with the 400,000 people of EQ, are you surprised Puzzle Pirate didn't show up on the graph there? I would be surprised if PP had even 20,000 subscribers.
PP would be huge if they had money for advertising in real magazines or on TV. But they don't. So instead we see web ads for them on Penny Arcade and the like, where everyone already plays...
So it goes..
I think this article was pretty spot-on.
This is still an immature market no matter what anyone says. I'm the perfect user for this sort of thing (make my own hours, disposable income, and a geek), but none of these established MMOGs have kicked my can. I did consider Everquest, but it just seemed like the same monster-killing over and over again, with no compelling plot. And you can have all the pretty graphics and explosions in the world, but that doesn't make a good experience (Jonny Mnemonic anyone?)
I think WoW is going to be compelling and profitable and thus, the new standard by which all the others are going to be judged. I know I'm going to try it out.
Still looking forward to part 2
At least your WOW subscription guesses are reasonable. Most people keep throwing around 500k - 1m ... and everytime someone suggests numbers that large it turns into a joke.
My only point of contention with your prognostication is: expansions don't bring in new gamers, never have.
They can bring back gamers who cancelled recently - but rarely do they retain anyone they bring back. They bring a quick surge from former players who give it a shot - and they retain players they haven't yet lost. Their largest effect is stalling the hemmhorage of players who have seen/done everything and are getting bored.
And Warhammer Online is going to live or die based on its ability to pull its audience from European gamers (the way Lineage2 lives or dies based on its Asian success). It has a distinctly European 'flavor' (like all Games Workshop properties) and for the most part European gamers are under-serviced with commercial persistent worlds.
// "Can't clowns and pirates just -try- to get along?"
Puzzle Pirates (referred to as YPP!) is a great game. I played it extensively when it first came out. At that time it seemed like a sleeper hit that would eventually reach up to 50,000 subscribers. An impressive number for a puzzle MMO.
Unfortunately, YPP! failed to live up to those high expectations. In my humble opinion the reason is because YPP! is too structured. The game is played by the rules and only by the rules. It is impossible to "think outside of the box" the way you can with a freeform 3D MMO.
After playing heavily for about 3 months I quit YPP! because I had fully explored the box. The game simply had no staying power for me. It was fun and a well polished game, but merely a game. After mastering every puzzle there was nothing more. It was reduced to a glorified chat program.