Guild Wars Ramps Up To E3, Previewed Effusively

Thanks to GameSpot for its hands-on impressions of ArenaNet/NCSoft's online PC RPG, Guild Wars, a subscription-free title that's previously received positive press. The preview explains that "the game relies on a skill-based system that's reminiscent of the card game Magic: The Gathering. You can collect and earn a wide variety of powerful skills and abilities, but... you'll be allowed to select only eight of them to take into battle", meaning that "a relatively new player will have a chance against seasoned veterans." It's also noted: "One of the most surprising aspects of Guild Wars is that the entire game will download to your computer while you play it", with only a "small executable program, about 90 kilobytes in size" needed - this is shown by the official download page for the E3 For Everyone alpha demo event, explained thus: "From May 12 through 14, while Guild Wars is being demonstrated on the E3 show floor, players from around the world will be able to play the same experience over the Internet."

Comments

An Excellent Idea

[HeadCrash]

While I have my suspicions about the business model (the content will have to be damn good for people to keep paying for upgraded stuff), I must say that the model is a killer idea. How many people out there don't play MMOs because of the monthly fee? I know I don't (Yeah, yeah - call me a cheapskate...although City of Heroes looks damn tempting...) I'll be there for the E3 event...

Re:An Excellent Idea

[*weasel]

The business model is very interesting.

You can play without paying for anything, but the game is heavily mission-based. Ostensibly, the missions are what you're paying for. So, if you don't pay, you quickly run out of things to do. Paying for content in this way is effectively episodic peristent gaming.

This also leads to the interesting situation where early adopters for an 'expansion' might deem it 'broken', or 'crappy'. This could quite likely stunt the market for that particular expansion/episode. They certainly won't enjoy the automatic-upgrade that every Everquest player does for each new expansion from SOE. They'll have to earn their upgrades.

The PVP element seems to draw strength from the fact that non-payers will be able to compete against paying-customers, keeping population at critical mass for PvP encounters.

This requires that, expansions can't introduce 'phat lewt' in the traditional sense. If one gets appreciably stronger by acquiring an item/ability from paid-content, it'll imbalance any conflict with a non-paying customer (it's a pvp game). Imbalancing conflict with non-paying customers, in turn disincentivizes free players from sticking around, which will heavily diminish the viability of the 'free-play' option. Casual gamers won't likely hang out to be pummeled by paying customers with egregious PvP advantages.
If they include phat lewt, their episodes become required to compete - essentially staggering the monthly into the episode fees. Paying $10/mo isn't economically different from paying $30 every 3 months.

And any reward that doesn't make the player appreciably stronger, isn't 'phat lewt' after all. So they're hanging their entire game on the idea that players will pay exclusively for the fun they get from playing the game, and not necessarily for the carrot at the end of the stick.

Fortuitously, their streaming content technology also doubles as convenient electronic distribution. This will help them keep costs (and thereby prices) down, and gives them more time and opportunity to hit fiscal viability.

Guild Wars is set up to simultaneously challenge the notions of electronic distribution, episodic content, and the traditional level-grind of the RPG genre all at the same time. It will certainly be interesting.

Re:An Excellent Idea

[SamBeckett]

Nitpick:

Paying $10/month for 3 months is VERY different then paying $30/3 months. Proof:

Let i = prevailing market interest rate (per month); let v = 1/(1+i), the amount you must invest now to get "1" back at the end of the month. Then the present value of each option:

($10/month for 3 months) = 10 + 10v + 10v^2
($30/3 months) = 30

The only times these are equal is when

10 + 10v + 10v^2 = 30

v = -2, or v = 1. The only root that makes sense is "v=1", and solving for i, we get i = 0. Therefore the two options are only equivalent if there is no interest rate.

To further illustrate, let's say you can get 2% interest per year in your savings account. This equates to (1+i)^12 = 1.02 -> i = 0.00165 (0.165% per month). Then, v = 0.998351, the PV of option#1($10/month) is PV = $29.9506 and the PV of option#2 is ($30/3 months) is PV=$30. The accumulated value at the end of 3 months for option#1 is $30.0992, and for option#2 is $30.1489.

These numbers may seem small and insignifigant to you, but to the companies, $0.05 x 1 million customers = $50,000.

Re:An Excellent Idea

[*weasel]

My point was that paying $10/mo is seen in the same light as $30/3mo for the consumer.

I'd thought that was implied by context, and I apologize if it wasn't so.

Clearly the publisher (NCSoft), doesn't have a problem with GuildWars' business structure - so whether or not they're concerned about their theoretical loss of $50k in interest is moot.

Business Model

[robbway]

Part of the non-subscription based MMORPG is to provide the user a seemingly free network. In fact, the cost is tacked onto the product. Then, as long as the markup is greater than actual usage time (and maintenance) costs per copy sold, they make a profit. Continuing upgrades keeps the money coming in, as an earlier comment mentioned. Neverwinter Nights is an excellent example. They must be timed just so that people who avidly play will continue to purchase the game.

It's a gamble, but they've got a good reputation.