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Ray Lewis To Break Madden Game Cover Curse?

Posted by simoniker on from the with-his-shoulderpads dept.

An anonymous reader writes "CNN/Money, in a column looking at the oft-discussed Madden cover curse, discloses that Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Raven will be on the cover of Electronic Arts' Madden NFL 2005 videogame, due out in August. For the past four years, the athlete on the cover of that game has had an injury plagued or shortened season, dating back to 2001, when Tennessee Titan Eddie George got knocked all around the field, including a particularly brutal hit by... Ray Lewis."

6 of 43 comments (clear)

  1. Just so you all know... by Ieshan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is a statistical "phenomenon" called "Regression to the Mean". It goes like this.

    The player on the Cover of the Madden Game (or, as it's more widely known, the SI Cover) had a phenomenal last season - a standout year. Such a good season that he will help sell the product and foster media attention.

    The Average player in the NFL did not have such a good season - in fact, they had an Average season. Next season, it is far more likely that the player on the cover of the Madden game will have a season more like the Average season than he will a Standout Season. That's the way a normal distribution works.

    Any other explanation is just mumbo-jumbo. It's regression to the mean. I'm not sure why basic statistics seems so difficult to so many people, especially psycho sports fans: sports statisticians.

    1. Re:Just so you all know... by MBCook · · Score: 4, Funny
      You mean it's not some secret hit squad dressed as blue hedgehogs using some kind of alien technology powered by some kind of emerald, perhaps a chaos one, trying to remotely injure the player in an attempt to hurt the reputation of a competitor's product in any way to win?

      Could it at least be some kind of time/space annomoly controlled by a company famous for tape players men could use while walking? Or maybe a conspiriacy of high-jumping plumbers?

      Why isn't it ever the INTERESTING explanation?

      --
      Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
    2. Re:Just so you all know... by ComputerSlicer23 · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Don't forget the other important explaination. The plural of anecdote isn't data. It's just like all my friends whom are convinced they are ahead after years of gambling. While it might be slightly true for one of them, even that is highly unlikely unless one of them cheats the house.

      People look for those people to have bad years. As a matter of fact, Randy Moss was in there somewhere, and he didn't have such a bad year when he was on the cover (it wasn't as spectacular as his rookie season, but as a receiver it was still a very good statistical year by nearly any measure). Also the SI Cover curse is completely separate from the "Madden Curse".

      The SI Cover curse goes back several decades I believe, and is more a matter of being anecdotal. As I recall Lance Armstrong's been on the cover several times during his Tour de France runs, and keeps winning somehow. Normally, it is associated with college football.

      People never remember the ones who don't match the pattern. Just like no one remembers all the times they lost $50 at the casino, they can just tell you about the one time left $1,200 up.

      Kirby

  2. There's more to it by AvantLegion · · Score: 4, Interesting
    Any other explanation is just mumbo-jumbo.

    No, this is mumbo-jumbo.

    If your theory were valid, a few things should happen:

    A "regressing" player should find himself having an "average" season by his numbers. He came off an exceptional year, yes. Might not be able to repeat it, yes. But what happens is we're having players who aren't just having average years, but they are having worse statistical years than any other year in their career. Players are not equal, and some players will typically be higher on the distribution than others. They each, however, have their own statistical averages over their career.

    Eddie George, for example, has played 8 seasons in the NFL. He ran for more than 1,000 yards in every season except one - his Madden cover season.

    Daunte Culpepper's worst stastistical year as a starter? His Madden cover.

    We're not talking about players coming off great seasons and returning to their average performances. We're talking about players suffering their single worst seasons as pros, after which they return to closer to their previous averages.\

    1. Re:There's more to it by AvantLegion · · Score: 4, Insightful
      For those keeping score at home, this will be the 15th Madden game - so the curse has stuck on roughly 29 percent of the games.

      for 71% of cover-guys, the "hex" has no effect!

      Oh man. Are you gonna feel real stupid in a minute...

      Guess who was on the cover from 1991 to 2000?

      JOHN MADDEN himself!

      Players have only been on the cover from 2001-2004. And I didn't mention Marshall Faulk, who fits right in with George and Culpepper. 2003 was Faulk's second worst season in 11 years of pro ball. Easily below his "average". And Vick missed 2/3rds of his cover season with injury.

      Let's see... 1.. 2... 3.. 4...

      Yup, every PLAYER that's been on the cover.

      Come on, a little research before you post.

      And what brainiac modded that insightful? Wow.

  3. Another hypothesis based on reason by gtshafted · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I could be wrong but has anyone thought of any psychological reasons for this? Being that this "curse" is pretty well publicized - it could be another case of "self ful-filling prophecy", or a better one: Other "average" players get jealous of the cover man (being the madden cover is a really big deal in terms of rep - since nfl players really like the game, when I was at EA we gave them advanced copies) and just decide to hit the bastard harder than ussual... (Rage and jealously does play a factor in sports) - remember the Curt Shilling / Doug Glanville incident?

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark_jayson/120128 3.html