Ray Lewis To Break Madden Game Cover Curse?

An anonymous reader writes "CNN/Money, in a column looking at the oft-discussed Madden cover curse, discloses that Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Raven will be on the cover of Electronic Arts' Madden NFL 2005 videogame, due out in August. For the past four years, the athlete on the cover of that game has had an injury plagued or shortened season, dating back to 2001, when Tennessee Titan Eddie George got knocked all around the field, including a particularly brutal hit by... Ray Lewis."

Comments

Just so you all know...

[Ieshan]

This is a statistical "phenomenon" called "Regression to the Mean". It goes like this.

The player on the Cover of the Madden Game (or, as it's more widely known, the SI Cover) had a phenomenal last season - a standout year. Such a good season that he will help sell the product and foster media attention.

The Average player in the NFL did not have such a good season - in fact, they had an Average season. Next season, it is far more likely that the player on the cover of the Madden game will have a season more like the Average season than he will a Standout Season. That's the way a normal distribution works.

Any other explanation is just mumbo-jumbo. It's regression to the mean. I'm not sure why basic statistics seems so difficult to so many people, especially psycho sports fans: sports statisticians.

Re:Just so you all know...

[MBCook]

You mean it's not some secret hit squad dressed as blue hedgehogs using some kind of alien technology powered by some kind of emerald, perhaps a chaos one, trying to remotely injure the player in an attempt to hurt the reputation of a competitor's product in any way to win?

Could it at least be some kind of time/space annomoly controlled by a company famous for tape players men could use while walking? Or maybe a conspiriacy of high-jumping plumbers?

Why isn't it ever the INTERESTING explanation?

There's more to it

[AvantLegion]

Any other explanation is just mumbo-jumbo.

No, this is mumbo-jumbo.

If your theory were valid, a few things should happen:

A "regressing" player should find himself having an "average" season by his numbers. He came off an exceptional year, yes. Might not be able to repeat it, yes. But what happens is we're having players who aren't just having average years, but they are having worse statistical years than any other year in their career. Players are not equal, and some players will typically be higher on the distribution than others. They each, however, have their own statistical averages over their career.

Eddie George, for example, has played 8 seasons in the NFL. He ran for more than 1,000 yards in every season except one - his Madden cover season.

Daunte Culpepper's worst stastistical year as a starter? His Madden cover.

We're not talking about players coming off great seasons and returning to their average performances. We're talking about players suffering their single worst seasons as pros, after which they return to closer to their previous averages.\

Re:There's more to it

[AvantLegion]

For those keeping score at home, this will be the 15th Madden game - so the curse has stuck on roughly 29 percent of the games.

for 71% of cover-guys, the "hex" has no effect!

Oh man. Are you gonna feel real stupid in a minute...

Guess who was on the cover from 1991 to 2000?

JOHN MADDEN himself!

Players have only been on the cover from 2001-2004. And I didn't mention Marshall Faulk, who fits right in with George and Culpepper. 2003 was Faulk's second worst season in 11 years of pro ball. Easily below his "average". And Vick missed 2/3rds of his cover season with injury.

Let's see... 1.. 2... 3.. 4...

Yup, every PLAYER that's been on the cover.

Come on, a little research before you post.

And what brainiac modded that insightful? Wow.