Out of Gas

Oil -- and energy in general -- has long been a big topic among Slashdot readers. Predictions about The End of the Age of Oil (about which, claims the subtitle, this book provides "all you need to know") certainly are not new -- and if civilization lasts long enough, one day they'll prove true. It's nice to consider that automobiles aren't necessarily tied to petroleum, but mine certainly runs on 87 octane gasoline, and there aren't enough turkey guts or grease to power everything that we use petro-fuels for right now (though places like Iceland are trying hard to tap other sources). Current gas prices (in the U.S. at any rate) are higher than they have been in a decade or so, but in constant dollars, gasoline prices have certainly been worse. How much to panic, and when? Read on below for Arthur Smith (apsmith)'s brief review of David Goodstein's Out of Gas for a rather gloomy look at the future of oil-based energy. Out of Gas: All You Need to Know about the End of the Age of Oil author David Goodstein pages 128 publisher W.W. Norton & Company rating 9/10 reviewer Arthur Smith ISBN 0393058573 summary Why replacing oil is the world's most urgent and ignored problem. Americans have started to notice prices at the pump with an unfamiliar '2' on the sign. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are hitting 13-year records close to $40 per barrel. As the International Energy Agency reports, there is "no relief in sight". All this should come as no surprise to readers of David Goodstein's Out of Gas - the only question is, have we left it too late to survive the inevitable shocks that are coming?

In this slim and subtly illustrated volume Dr. Goodstein, physics professor and vice provost at Caltech, explains in clear and simple terms why the fossil fuel age is coming to an end. A "massive, focused commitment" is needed to develop alternatives, and every year of delay in that commitment adds immeasurably to future human suffering.

In years, or at best a decade, we will reach the global "Hubbert's peak" for conventional oil, when production starts to decline even with rising demand. Such a peak was reached for US production in 1970. "Foreign oil" has sustained us until now, but Goodstein shows why it cannot for much longer.

A number of books on this subject have come out in recent years, some very pessimistic about the future (for example Heinberg's "The Party's Over", which warns of a greatly decreased world population). Goodstein offers some hope in alternatives, substantially based on the analysis of climate scientist and space solar power advocate Martin Hoffert.

Solar-based renewables and fusion are the only long-run energy solutions. According to Goodstein, natural gas and nuclear fission can help tide us over. All of these have problems, with the most scalable (solar power from space) still the least mature. Goodstein's longest chapter discusses thermodynamics and the physical laws that explain usable energy and its relation to entropy. As a physicist, I was pleased and surprised to learn something from Goodstein's clear explanation here.

Goodstein also discusses global climate problems with continued use of fossil energy, particularly an increasing dependence on coal. He concludes: "Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century unless we find a way to live without fossil fuels."

There were a few minor things to complain about. Transitions between the chapters are too abrupt, perhaps caused by the wide range of discussion in such a short book. A few technical things seemed wrong - for example, it is quite feasible to run transportation systems off grid electricity (electric trains, subways, etc. do this) - would it be so hard to do it for personal transport too?

But Goodstein's book is the clearest explanation yet of our need to get beyond fossil fuels. Is it enough to get the public, and our leaders, actually paying attention?

You can purchase the Out of Gas: All You Need to Know about the End of the Age of Oil from bn.com. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, carefully read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.

Comments

Re:Start by banning plastics for consumables

[Phekko]

I fully agree. Oil pollutes a whole lot when used as fuel. When used in making plastic etc it can then be recycled.

Environmental issues should not be tossed aside in this, either. Why not use as environmentally friendly fuels as possible - whether it is bioalcohol, biodiesel, turkey offal or cold fusion, as long as it works and doesn't pollute it rocks - and try to keep pollution at bay? Things would be a whole lot different if you actually had to pay for polluting. Say a fuel tax based on who much the fuel in question taxes the environment or something. Preferably a relatively simple system so even Bush could follow the conversation at least in the beginning.

Re:In the land of empty tanks

[Aardpig]

And, as we all know, beef is the ONLY food that one can eat...

I know your sort -- you're the pedant who would pipe up after Herman Goring's "Guns or Butter" speech, saying that you wanted homestyle fries instead. You idiot.

Re:These are all lies

[the_mad_poster]

So, you're theory here is that because lots of other good presidents in the past were Christian (if not all of them), then this one must me good as well? Good theory. Too bad it's stupid and your post has absolutely nothing to do with anything, least of all to do with what I said about Bush in particular. But, anyway, maybe your fingers got a nice workout typing all that... assuming you didn't copy and paste.

In other news, all black objects are mice because my mouse is black.

Damn it America

[fullofangst]

Too many people not caring about the kinds of car they drive, not caring about the environment, not caring ONE LITTLE BIT as long as they are literally smothered in comfort and leather, and to hell with the fuel economy!

Unfortunately anyone against this point of view has not been vocal enough. What with the internet, you'd have thought groups of anti-SUV culture could have gotten together, lobbied against the motor companies harder than has currently been. So now we have rising gas prices, oil reserves continuing to deplete (and push gas prices up) and we have what to show for it? A couple of hybrid cars on the market. That's it? That's pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. Thanks to all the big corporations out there who are going to run my later life because they only cared about their own pockets.