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Beagle 2 Failure Analyzed

InsomniaCity writes "An inquiry into the loss of the Beagle 2 Mars probe in December will criticize the management of the project and the testing of the lander, says the BBC. Following the loss, the European Space Agency (Esa) and the British National Space Centre established a Commission of Inquiry, that are now recommending 19 things we need to remember for the future, from project management and fund raising, to high altitude testing of the parachute system. The commission, however, did not pinpoint any particular technical failure."

55 of 139 comments (clear)

  1. Simple Error? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    With how fast it was sent through production into use, it could have been something as simple as faulty programming.

    Maybe someone told it to use it's parachute at 5m instead of 5km? The world may never know.

    1. Re:Simple Error? by mallardtheduck · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I agree.
      A few weeks before the launch, there was a doumentary on the BBC about the probe. It was basically a one-man struggle to get the thing there, despite tight deadlines. I also noticed that some of the critical equiptment, I think including the parachute that they used, remained untested. (The one they tested broke during testing!) It was amazing that it even got into space, but there were definately worries about wether it would work or not before it was launched.

    2. Re:Simple Error? by WIAKywbfatw · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well the a 5m parachute deployment because of faulty programming, or any other software error, is easily checked by going over the code.

      But, yes, your basic point is correct: Beagle 2, which only came about because of the sheer will and determination of a handful of dedicated individuals, and on a shoestring budget, was in space exploration terms a last minute afterthought. As such, it didn't have the time or budget for being test and retested several times before the mission launch date.

      --

      "Accept that some days you are the pigeon, and some days you are the statue." - David Brent, Wernham Hogg
    3. Re:Simple Error? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      No new lessons learned, just the old programming law:

      Faster, Better, Cheaper -- pick two.

    4. Re:Simple Error? by Dizzle · · Score: 5, Funny

      They should have made the code open source. THAT would have solved it!

      I can see it now: "b2Landing is software to successfully land a spacecraft on a distant planet. Development status: 0 - Borked/Need Money"

      --
      -Dizzle
      "I most likely AM so interested in myself."
    5. Re:Simple Error? by flossie · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Faster, Better, Cheaper -- pick two.

      They did. They picked "faster" due to launch date constraints and "cheaper" because they couldn't get the necessary sponsorship to spend more money. There was never any great secret about it, but it would still have been much "better" than nothing if it had worked.

    6. Re:Simple Error? by tiger99 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Yes, I saw that, and feared the worst. The project was simply under-funded, which is why things did not get done. It was not due to any lack of technical competence. I have seen projects like this before, not necessarily involving space exploration, where those who control the cash supply something less than the absolute minimum necessary to to the job, with the inevitable result. Partly it happens because, especially in the UK, those who control the money usually have no scientific or technical ability whatsoever, and they imagine that there is always some way of making economies, when in matters of hard fact such as equipment design, there usually is not.

  2. Exploring other worlds is expensive by Space+cowboy · · Score: 5, Interesting


    The cost of Beagle 2 varies (depending on who you ask) between 25 and 35 million pounds. Let's take an average of 30 million. The cost of the US Mars Rovers was 800 million for 2 (with savings on each because there were 2 of them). Right there is why Beagle 2 failed. Any failures in management are going to be mere perturbations on a delta-function graph - they had the best available technology, science, and equipment for the costs they could afford.

    It's interesting to note that Manchester United paid 30 million for Rio Ferdinand from Leeds United (this is English Premier League Football, for those not UK based) which sort of sums up the UK attitude to space travel. We pay roughly equivalent amounts to move a footballer about 65 miles as we do to send a robot explorer to a different planet in search of life....

    I think it all starts at a very early age. Sport is instinctively popular amongst kids and remains popular amongst adults. Science for kids is boring and dull (apart from Chemistry where once in a blue moon you get to blow something up). There are tables to learn, maths equations to solve, rules and laws to learn by rote. None of this is fun.

    As kids become adults, they keep their inhibitions about science ... Which is a more popular topic in a bar (or anywhere, really), the search for the Higgs Boson, or 'Who will win the league' ? Adults like the fact that 'hey, we went to the moon', but it's a transient 'win' for science. Within a week it's no longer important, and the mountain to climb to get back on the agenda has just got higher...

    The case for the prosecution of "boring science at school" rests, M'lud.

    Simon.

    --
    Physicists get Hadrons!
    1. Re:Exploring other worlds is expensive by jcam2 · · Score: 2, Insightful
      It's interesting to note that Manchester United paid 30 million for Rio Ferdinand from Leeds United (this is English Premier League Football, for those not UK based) which sort of sums up the UK attitude to space travel.

      I'm sure you could find a few US baseball players whose combined salaries exceeded the cost of their mars landers .. but despite the fact that the US public is far more interested in sport that space exploration, they still managed to land two probes on mars :-)

      Maybe the real issue is the size of the US vs UK economy, which is what really determines the amount of money available to spend on mars missions.

    2. Re:Exploring other worlds is expensive by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "The cost of Beagle 2 varies (depending on who you ask) between 25 and 35 million pounds. Let's take an average of 30 million. The cost of the US Mars Rovers was 800 million for 2 (with savings on each because there were 2 of them). Right there is why Beagle 2 failed. Any failures in management are going to be mere perturbations on a delta-function graph - they had the best available technology, science, and equipment for the costs they could afford."

      You're correct on half of the problem where inadequate money was provided for testing. In many engineering fields quality assurance is considered as important as the initial design. Without enough QA, you won't know where the design fails (take the minor software glitch in the Spirit rover as an example).

      But I think the other problem is culture. Everyone expects NASA to be successful and is incredibly suprised when something goes wrong. For new space agencies, like that of the UK and the ESA, that don't yet have a reputation of doing much, a failure isn't that big of a deal. This is of course the wrong thinking. If they continue down this course they will just create another mediocre bueracracy, similar to any other in the government. If they want to have a successful space program they must challenge NASA. Losing a lander throws out their credibility. And since science is on the fringe of government priorities, like you discussed, losing credibility will kill the agency. While it made sense to make a gamble for a cheap lander from a scientific prospective, it is a very dangerous gamble indeed with the fate of their space agency.

    3. Re:Exploring other worlds is expensive by Slashamatic · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Manchester United paid 30 million for Rio Ferdinand from Leeds United (this is English Premier League Football,
      Bad example, Leeds is no longer premier league (at least after this season) and they desperately need the cash due to some very dodgy management.

      But back to the Beagle, I agree. At the same time, Football is a game frequently associated with dodgy accounting and poor management, however they make a fortune. Heavy science always costs a fortune, even 'lite' projects like Beagle. I thought the whole idea to be good, it is just a pity that they didn't have just a little bit more cash and time for testing.

      As for education, well science is interesting (kids do like to find out things) and a good teacher can make a spectacular difference. However it takes a lot more understanding to appreciate science than it does the average ball game and nothing is going to change that.

    4. Re:Exploring other worlds is expensive by mikejz84 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Because of the high R&D costs associated with designing a space probe--it on average only costs 15% of what the first one cost to build a second one. Hence this was the reason behind the dual US rovers, the second one was also free relatively speaking. I would of made a lot of sense just to have had ESA chip in and make it three rovers instead of trying to design a whole new lander on a budget that almost assured a poor outcome. P.s. Stupidest idea of all: Not having telemetry during landing

  3. Brilliant discoveries by lewko · · Score: 5, Funny

    They are recommending 19 things we need to remember for the future, including "testing of the parachute system".

    Am I the only one who can't believe they didn't think of this before?

    --
    Do you or your partner snore? - Visit www.snoring.com.au
    1. Re:Brilliant discoveries by mallardtheduck · · Score: 5, Informative

      Am I the only one who can't believe they didn't think of this before?

      And you would be right to not believe that they did not think of it. They did. They took it out to some desert and did a test drop. It failed. They damaged the parachute. Time constraints meant that they just had to use the untested spare parachute. This was all on a BBC documentary about the project.

  4. Duh... by WIAKywbfatw · · Score: 3, Funny

    Which is a more popular topic in a bar (or anywhere, really), the search for the Higgs Boson, or 'Who will win the league'?

    When it's his turn to buy the drinks, the search for Higgs Boson wins hands down.

    --

    "Accept that some days you are the pigeon, and some days you are the statue." - David Brent, Wernham Hogg
  5. It was the name by imbezol · · Score: 5, Funny

    If they'd have named it Siamese, I'm sure it would have landed right.

    BigFiber.net

  6. bad name ... by drmancini · · Score: 3, Funny

    A couple of geeks from slashdot should have checked their documentation before they even built Beagle II ... They may have succeeded :) Obviously, they should have named it Slashdot I ...

    --

    Never underestimate the power of idiots in large groups
  7. Simple Things... by Dozix007 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I realize this is not an American probe, but the American example of Metric\American system is a prime example of things that generally go wrong on these type of missons. Generally simple, easy to avoid things are the prime kickers. While hind site is 20/20, I think some increased quality control would be quite usefull.

    1. Re:Simple Things... by MoonFog · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well, this: But the project faced severe time pressures and not all its components were tested to the complete satisfaction of its engineers. is another prime example imo. How many times as a CS student haven't I heard about time schedules and pressure. It's also kind of scary that they are willing to send out a probe like that without testing it to the "satisfaction of its engineers". That's a lot of wasted tax payers money.

    2. Re:Simple Things... by Vellmont · · Score: 2, Informative


      I think some increased quality control would be quite usefull.


      And I'm sure the engineers who designed it would agree with you 100%. The root problem as another poster pointed out was there wasn't enough money to do that. The budget was shoestring $50 million. You can't go to mars for less than it costs to make a movie about going to mars.

      --
      AccountKiller
    3. Re:Simple Things... by flossie · · Score: 3, Insightful
      That's a lot of wasted tax payers money.

      In your opinion, perhaps. This was a high risk, high reward programme from the very beginning. There was never any secret that there was a fairly high probability that it would not be successful; it was a project based on hope rather than expectation. However, it would be unfair to say that it has not acheived anything. Much of the work may be useful in designing future landers but, more importantly, the project fired the imagination of the British public. I think it is far more likely now that there will be another, better funded, attempt to land on Mars than if this project had never taken place.

    4. Re:Simple Things... by tmortn · · Score: 4, Insightful

      actually you can. Granted to probe wasn't completely successfull but it most certainly did get to mars for less than the cost of a movie about going to mars.

      --
      I don't ask you to be me. I only ask you not expect me to be you.
    5. Re:Simple Things... by AlecC · · Score: 2, Informative

      Stretching the timescale was simply not an option. It was a passenger on Mars Ezpress, which was going to launch in a particular narrow window because of the relative positions of Mars and Earth. The options were 1: fit it into the time available, 2: cancel.

      --
      Consciousness is an illusion caused by an excess of self consciousness.
    6. Re:Simple Things... by Vellmont · · Score: 2, Informative

      The Beagle II piggybacked on the Mars Express spacecraft. It could have been a rock and would have gotten to mars. That in itself is just not an accomplishment.

      If it actually would have worked, sure that would have been a great accomplishment. I don't know about being doomed to failure, but given the money and limited testing it should be fairly obvious that it's not highly likely it'll succeed. That's fine, not everything has to suceed. For only 50 million, you try again later from what you've learned.

      --
      AccountKiller
  8. Re:Wow by Cooke · · Score: 2, Insightful

    umm well the Mars Rover did arive a weak after beagle... sabotage I tell you

  9. the british are great engineers by polished+look+2 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    the rolls royce engines are some of the best plus they have lots of other things.

    1. Re:the british are great engineers by Dizzle · · Score: 2, Funny

      Food and teeth excluded.

      --
      -Dizzle
      "I most likely AM so interested in myself."
  10. Incomplete testing will always set you up to fail by Shivantrill · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I am a bit amazed that they tested everything individually but didn't do an end to end testing.
    I realize that they were on a tight schedule. I wonder if they performed environmental testing under extreme conditions? The article didn't mention it but it is really important. Especially since I doubt the mars atmospere resembles the weather in Great Britain.
    I think it would be cool if they gave it another go.

    --
    Karma, We don't need no stinkin' karma!
  11. Learn spelling by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's ESA not Esa, do U write Usa???, michael: -1 point.

    1. Re:Learn spelling by maelstrom · · Score: 2, Funny

      Why do "U" write "you" as "U"?

      --
      The more you know, the less you understand.
  12. Speed to market... by lewko · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The speed at which new technologies are rushed from design through to market is a concern.

    Admittedly technology that may have fatal consequences (like aircraft, flying machines and drugs)is usually subject to more regimented testing before release, but there is no shortage of products without such controls.

    How many of us end-users should have been called beta-testers instead (cough...mobile phones...operating systems etc.)?

    Unfortunately the rush to get the product to market before competition meant there wasn't enough time (or interest) in testing it. Was that the problem here, with the Mars Rover on the way at the same time as the Beagle?

    --
    Do you or your partner snore? - Visit www.snoring.com.au
    1. Re:Speed to market... by mallardtheduck · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I think the ESA did want to get 'Mars Express', the orbiter that was Beagle's 'Mothership' to Mars before the NASA probes, but the launch date was already set before work on Beagle started. This meant that the Beagle team had a very tight and final deadline, so they did not have time to test everything fully.

  13. Re:Wow by Cooke · · Score: 2, Funny

    [joke]I think the point is clear, Bush saw that the British were going to get there first. So he took it down.[/joke]

  14. What a load of garbage. by tsotha · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Every time something bad happens the Monday-morning quarterbacks come out of the woodwork. If you read the article you see they don't have any idea what went wrong, but they have all sorts of expensive ideas on how to fix the problem.

    Space missions are risky and expensive. You can spend lots of extra money and have the mission fail anyway. And there's a danger of it getting cancelled altogether if you spend too long testing.

    1. Re:What a load of garbage. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      Entirely fair comment (I work in the "industry" concerned). One thing to remember with Beagle/Mars Express and many other interplanetaries is the Launch date is FIXED by orbital motions and that puts some pressure on development and testing.

  15. Experience is just as important as funding by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'm not so sure that funding is the sole source of ESA's woes. Of course, when you're only budgeting 1/30th the amount as your competitors, things aren't always going to work out.

    But consider the fact that ESA was founded in 1975 (May 30, 1975, to be exact. We're almost at the anniversary...) By this time, the USA had already tested numerous rockets, put men into space, and had landed men on the moon six years prior. The orbiter was already in development and the first "space shuttle" would be deployed less than a year later.

    ESA has a lot of catching up to do, even now. I don't doubt that NASA and ESA share a lot of data, but for the time being, NASA has a great deal of experience over any competing space agency. Funding is not the only problem that ESA will have to overcome before it can be seen as NASA's contemporary.

    --
    Rate Naked People (Not work-safe)

  16. Bad Idea by ShadowRage · · Score: 2, Interesting

    it would never meet the deadlines because of all the new features being put into it constantly.

  17. Wait, you mean... by Anonymous+Cowdog · · Score: 2, Funny

    ...the British scientific information ministers finally admitted it failed?? I thought they were holding out hope until the 2038 rollover.

  18. Blame by jjeffrey · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I hope no-one blames Professor Pillinger for this. He did a great job under the circumstances and he deserves a chance to try again - this time with funding and commitement from ESA.

  19. Engage Brain BEFORE Speaking by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The Mosquito was actually a very successful plane. The engineers had the sense to use a highly sophisticated composite material using hollow fibres for stiffness (otherwise known as wood).

    They chose wood, not to impress the ignorant, but because it was the best material for the job in the circumstances - that is largly what engineering is about.

  20. Er by lpontiac · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I remember reading a few years ago about the "new" approach to space exploration. Instead of sending less probes, they (the space agencies) would be sending more, cheaper probes. The idea being that yes, there would be a higher proportion of failures, but when offset against the increased number of missions overall, we'd end up with a higher (number of successful missions) / (total expenditure across all missions).

    A similar idea crops up in the manned versus unmanned debate - "unmanned exploration is cheaper because amongst other things, you don't have to be as sure the spacecraft won't fail because there's no human life at stake."

    We've now got our numerous, cheaper (Beagle cost 50 million pounds), unmanned missions. But when half of them fail (der!), people get into a kink!

  21. Hopefully one of those 19 things is . . . by edward.virtually@pob · · Score: 2, Funny

    Next time, don't program it to land in a crater. NASA was lucky that their similarly boneheaded failure to include filesystem cleanup code in their Mars landers was repairable.

  22. Probably not a software error by johannesg · · Score: 3, Interesting
    That is a cause that's easy to rule out: just examine the software. And before you ask: yes, they kept a copy of the source around on Earth...

    The software was actually built by LogicaCMG. At work we received a christmas card from them (i.e. before it was known that the probe had failed), saying this:

    "LogicaCMG delivered the mission-critical software that controls Beagle 2 during the hazardous ride through the Martian atmosphere, releasing the heat shield and deploying parachutes and gas-filled air bags, slowing Beagle 2 down from its 14,000 mph/22,530 kph approach velocity to a safe landing on the surface of Mars"

    Or maybe not - but thanks for the card anyway ;-)

  23. Failure? by FrostedWheat · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I wouldn't call Beagle 2 a failure. It didn't accomplish it's scientific goals but it proved that a small group of people with all the odds against them can produce a high quality spacecraft (and it was a high quality piece of kit, excluding perhaps the parachute) and get it to another world.

    And it did get to Mars! Sure, it landed much like a bowl of petunias falling from several miles would -- but the fact that it flew at all was the amazing thing. Keep an eye out for the BBC documentary on the whole mission to get an idea of what I mean.

    My message to the Beagle 2 team: It's difficult getting to Mars, and for your first attempt you did really well. Better luck next time!

    1. Re:Failure? by imsabbel · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Not to mention that the lander was only part of the mission, and the orbiting spacecraft seems to work rather well...

      --
      HI O WISE PRINCE. WHT TOOK U SO DAM LONG?
    2. Re:Failure? by kwan3217 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Beagle 2 was a 100% failure. Nothing at all was learned from it. It sent back zero bits of science, and accomplished zero of its mission goals. It also returned zero bits of engineering data after it was released and switched from being a payload to an independent spacecraft. This means no one can even tell what went wrong.

      How can you tell that Beagle was high quality? Once it was released, how was Beagle distinguishable from an equivalent mass of bricks? How is it distinguishable from puting 30 million pound notes in a bag and dropping it from Mars Express?

      Basically all we learned is that that particular spacecraft team with that particular budget on that particular schedule cannot build a successful lander. Even then we cannot be sure, because Beagle may have just had bad luck. An identical spacecraft targeted a few meters away may have had a different result. We just don't know.

      Nothing was learned, nothing was gained. Everyone knew it was a high risk mission, and they crapped out. This doesn't mean they shouldn't try again, but don't try to sugarcoat it.

      --
      Lots of technical and environmental problems are solved by the application of vast amounts of nuclear power
  24. Altimeter problems by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I saw one of the beagle-2 flight spares last week. It was displayed and discussed at the university department where I work.

    One suggestion for the loss of the craft was that the barometric altimeter, which was to deploy the parachute, was fooled by an unseasonal sand storm in the Martian atmosphere. The altimeter had to trigger the chute quite late in the descent, and the low pressure associated with the storm may have inhibited the deployment until the craft hit the ground.

    Since Beagle had no engines, it couldn't go into parking orbit until the storm went away.

  25. Project Management by Asahi+Super+Dry · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Wouldn't surprise me at all if bad management led to the failure. I'd never grasped the value of good management until my current job, which lacks it. Not that I'm any kind of great programmer, but I always felt before that the burden of success was mine, 100%, when in fact it's a lot less than that. The people making the higher level decisions (resource/time allocation, features, scope, requirements) are the ones who can really fuck things up. Heh, that seems pretty trite now that I've typed it...

  26. The British Research System by MROD · · Score: 5, Informative

    The problems decribed here are endemic to the way what little money is available for British scientific research is distributed.

    I work for the Earth Sciences department at Oxford University, one of the very best funded Universities in the UK, yet much of the time which should be spent on research by lecturers and postdoctural research staff is tied up with the beaurocracy of funding. Not only this but the funds available to keep the departments running, ie. the infrastructural costs, are going down year on year.

    I feel for Professor Pillinger. He did the best job of getting funding he could. It's highly unlikely that he would have be able to get more managerial help from anyone in the current circumstances and the only person who could have publicised the whole thing was himself.

    If the research council and funding bodies are anything like NERC, they only want research which already knows the results (ie. pointless) and is preferably one of the fashionable subjects (currently climate change and the environment).

    Please note that I am speaking on behalf of myself and not in any way on behalf of the University of Oxford or the Department of Earth Sciences. All of the opinions expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of any group within the University of any policy thereof.

    --

    Agrajag: "Oh no, not again!"
  27. In other words they didn't thiink of it by bluGill · · Score: 2, Interesting

    If they had thought of testing the parachute before they would have considered the idea that it might fail, and planed for time to build one that works. There is no point in doing a test if you can't make use of the results. They wasted time and money pretending to test the system.

    Yes I understand there were time pressures. I don't know what they could have done differently to make it work.

  28. Re:Any standart followed...? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Well,

    CMM is *known* just like smeltery and pottery is *known*.

    CMM is a kind of measure how able you are to do software or other engineering work. So *knowing* it is not enough, you have to apply it.

    CMM has 5 levels ... or five digits on your measure meter. Level 1 is the lowest and level 5 the highest. On level 5 are world wide about 10 to 15 software development departments.

    Even on level 3 are only about 35% of all software engineering departments(companies).

    Basicly: the majority of development labs don't use any advanced software engineering practice. Example is my curent contract, a company with 40,000 employees and about 1000 software engineers and about 2000 external consultants/software engineers, they are on CMM level 1.

    Before I started to help them they not even had a revision control system. Issue tracking was done with an Excel sheet ... with about 3000 lines of issues per project. Neither did they follow a decent way to gather requirements ... no way of testing ... they even used a proprietary programming language ... I could continue :D

    Regarding Beagel 2: I guess the Beagle project was well aware of their quallity or lack there off. However if you like to catch a train the most important thing is to be in time at the train station. The ESA Mars Express had no chance to wait for Beagel 2. There was a launch window depending on the positions of the planets during that time in the solar system. The Beagel team did the best they could to get a probe ready to be fitted into the Mars Express probe and to join the trip.

    Note: Mars is still a not very well explored/understood world. Recent informations (noted here on /.) suggested that the atmosphere pressure varies in a far broader range than we assumed so far. If you have a lander scheduled to open its parashutes at pressure X and you asume you have a good enough altitude at that pressure but in fact the weather conditions are totally different .... you crash land.

    I would not wonder if Beagel 2 worked perfectly but crashed because of unexpected circumstances. Roughly 50% of all Mars landers crashed ....

    angel'o'sphere

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  29. My theory by mark-t · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Is that the problem was caused be the absolutely bizarre perception that somehow releasing what was essentially a dead weight with absolutely no propulsion gear on board (due to mass constraints for this mission, as far as I am aware) to do things like minor course correction from several million miles above the surface of the planet would have anything but a practically infinitesmal chance of actually landing correctly. If Beagle2 had landed as intended, it would not have been due to good engineering or science, it would have been on account of absolutely spectacular luck - on the order of the kind of luck it would take to be hit by a large vehicle moving at highway speeds (and that hadn't started to slow down), and walk it off a few moments later, essentially merely having had the wind knocked out of you - ie, possible, but absolutely incredulous. Perhaps it is a good thing that this first attempt didn't succeed, as it will hopefully give them a better opportunity to examine fundamental errors in the design of the mission instead of being too hasty to blame it equipment malfunctions.

    At least they realize that tracking it during decent is something they should do from now on.

  30. I disagree by Rei · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I disagree, and it bothers me seing space agencies around the world trashed all the time. For example, NASA is a common punching bag for the Shuttle. Its predicted 18 million dollar launch cost, while looking great on paper, quickly swelled to 500 million per launch. Well, guess what? The Shuttle is pretty much par for the course. Almost all rocket programs have started out with grandiose dreams, and failed. Rocket launch costs, while fluctuating a lot, have remained relatively stable since the 1960s.

    I was debating with someone recently who kept insulting the shuttle, and referring to Ariane. I then showed the person how much of a disaster the Ariane program has been as well - Ariane 5 having three failures in 18 paid launches, the cost overruns driving their price up (not as high as the shuttle, but still not that great), the bailout of Arianespace, the cancellation of the ESC-B upper stage, etc. The person's response? They picked another rocket system to use as their champion, ignoring the fact that *it* had its own problems too.

    To make it worse, many of the people who trash space agencies treat ameteurs as if they're the ray of hope for the future. The ameteur rocket industry has been one failure after another, and has eaten enough dollars to fund some serious development at real space agencies. They're about to start getting their first major successes - and while they too have some very good people working for them, well, "Whoopee". When they've gotten several thousand designs into space hundreds or even thousands of times each, give me a call.

    We've had some truly brilliant people working at places like NASA, the ESA, etc., who have achieved incredible tasks. And while one may blame the management, guess what? Decisions have to be made. I heard someone the other day criticizing NASA for embarking on the Shuttle project and treating it as junk, while glorifying the never-made Sea Dragon. Well, how on earth was NASA supposed to predict that the Shuttle's costs would increase so dramatically due to technological problems not yet discovered? What makes one think that a rocket, "built like a ship", would have *less* technical problems? In fact, when SEALAR was built based on the Sea Dragon design, its performance figures were horribly downgraded and even still it ended up with serious structural failures that led to its cancellation. And the shuttle's costs aren't actually as bad, comparitively, as many people think - ~20,000$/kg, while the cheapest launches out there, using the latest tech, are ~10,000$/kg and are not man-capable.

    So give them a break, people. They're got some of the really intelligent people working very hard on an *incredibly* difficult task.

    --
    Musk needs a safer hobby than Twitter. Fire juggling? Cage fighting? Solo hot air balloon trips?
    1. Re:I disagree by TrentTheWiseA · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The only problem with that is usually, you can do the right thing ONCE, and then you're out looking for another job. Whistleblower laws aren't truly effective enough to keep a determined supervisor from finding 'something' to terminate you over. If you're going to do the honorable thing, make sure it's the right honorable thing. You usually only get the chance to make the sacrifice once.

  31. Too many gizmos for a first probe by Tablizer · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Being that it was their first probe, perhaps they should have cut down on the number of gizmos so that they had money and weight to have better landing systems.

    Rather than include a dozen experiments, maybe just have 2 or 3. For example, just focus on detecting life instead of x-ray spectrometers etc.