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Geeks and Poker?
Best ID Ever! asks: "Poker, a fascinating intersection of math, game theory, and observation of human behavior, is currently exploding in popularity due to televised high-stakes tournaments such as the World Poker Tour and Binion's 2003 World Series of Poker. Many of today's top professional players have nerdly roots such as Mathematicians, chess prodigies, or backgammon champions. A few pros, including 2000 champion Chris Ferguson, even used to play poker in the IRC poker community. This year's World Series final event, which began Saturday and lasts through the week, drew 2600 participants, more than three times the number of participants in 2003. How many Slashdot readers play poker, and what do you think of Poker's upswing?"
M.I.T. geeks vs Vegas.
True story.
An amazing read.
La via sola al paradiso incommincia nel inferno
Actually, last I heard (and admittedly, it's been a while since I heard this), counting cards is not illegal. However, casinos can and will kick you out/blacklist you if you're caught doing it.
>insert witty sig file here
Actually the best odds in the house come from Blackjack and craps. With either one if you know what you are doing the house only has around 1-2% advantage over you. Also its not 50% chance, you forgot about the 0 and 00.
Also counting cards isn't illegal, but the casinos will ask you to leave and maybe blacklist you if you do it.
Craps actually gives you the best odds to win in most cases. In fact, certain betting combinations can give the bettor almost even odds with the house.
Also counting cards isn't illegal, but the casinos will ask you to leave and maybe blacklist you if you do it
Card counting is virtually useless these days. Most casinos will use a 6-deck shoe, out of which they only deal about 3 1/2 decks. Card counting only pays when you get to see most of the cards.
However, casinos gauge their blacjack take according to the number of hands per hour, so the deeper they can deal into the deck without getting banged by counters the better. Despite that, most never dealers never deal into the 5th deck.
All your base are belong to us!
I believe 00 is an American invention, IIRC European tables only have 0.
The grass is only greener, if you don't take care of your own lawn.
This site is run by a casino math professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. It contains the odds on all the major casino games, and Java applets that teach you how to play the best odds.
http://www.wizardofodds.com/
Taking blackjack as an example, if you come up with a strategy that gives you better odds than the house, a little something called the central limit theorem guarantees that in the long run, you're going to win. What you should be concerned about instead is that your bankroll is big enough to let you play long enough for that to happen -- if you run out of money too quickly due to a run of bad luck (something math guys call the "gambler's ruin" problem), then you're screwed. Then it becomes trying to figure out what the odds are of that not happening, as a function of how much money you start out with.
The popular Bringing Down The House is an easy read that actually does a good job of discussing a lot of these issues, in the guise of an entertaining story.
The bold print giveth, and the fine print taketh away
Actually, craps offers some of the best odds in the house.
The original come/don't come bets are close to 50/50, and when you put "odds" behind them, those bets are exactly 50/50.
When you see signs with 100x odds for craps, those are fantastic deals. Your original wager might be $5 at an expected 98% return, but if you put another few hundred behind it at an expected 100% return, your total bet is going to be damn near 50/50.
Casino owners have said something like, "If every patron played craps, and every player played the maximum odds allowed, we wouldn't be able to pay our electricity bills."
Todd
no - but it's creative editing -
you'll see only the footage of the best hands...bear in mind, you're seeing maybe 5 percent of the hands actually televised - they'll edit it to keep the good stuff and throw away the bet/fold action.
Bluffs make for exciting poker, so they'll show a disproprotionally high amount of them on TV - just like reality TV will show more drunken outrageous behavior then the people sitting around watching TV
editing, man...
RB
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ah honey, we're all resplendent - Bill Mallonee
actually... technically, "counting cards" is somewhat simpler than what you are describing... the method that most card counters do is more of a "+1" "-1" calculation... for instance, in your head you might add +1 to a total for every 9 or better shown, and subtract "-1" for every low card... the higher the score, the more chance another low card will come out... thereby you should lower your average bets... because the more low cards that come out raises the chance of the dealer actually getting a hand without him busting...
From: http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/
Legally speaking the player may play blackjack any way he wants without cheating or using a computer, and the casinos may do anything from making conditions unfavorable to barring in an effort to stop anyone who they deem has an advantage over the game. Much of the challenge of card counting is avoiding suspicion that you are anything but a normal non-counting player. The most obvious indication that somebody is counting is that they make a substantial increase in bet size after a lot of small cards leave the table. Although the greater the factor by which you can increase your bet the greater your odds of winning, more than doubling your last bet is a fast way to arouse "heat" from the dealer and pit boss. Usually when casinos do realize you are counting they will either shuffle the cards whenever you increase your bet, essentially removing any advantage, or ask you to leave.
For a great convergence of geeks and poker, try the International Conference on Cognitive Modeling this summer, at which there will be a "pokerbot" competition. It's just what it sounds like, but if you'd like an overview (written for poker players), try my article from Card Player Magazine.
The BEST "naked" odds (as in 'walk up to the table and drop a bet') in casino gambling come with betting the bank to win in Baccarat. With a 5% win commission (typical), the house edge is 1.17% on banker bets, and a 1.36% on player bets. Nothing else comes near.
Craps is for occasional adrenaline rushes and fools. The house edge for the boring Pass/Don't Pass bets is 1.4%, and everything else on the table 5.6% or worse in favor of the house, with up to a 16% edge against you. Sure, craps is fun, but don't think any amount of skill is going to get you consistent wins.
Counting cards in Blackjack is the only reliable way to have odds in your favor, and as we all know, if you're either found actually using those odds, or suspected of using them, you'll be asked to leave every casino in the world.
Good Blackjack players who don't count cards face a long term house edge of about 0.5%. Individual bets are worse, but occasional opportunities in Blackjack (split, double down), when played correctly, can bring the odds back under a percent in favor of the house. That's why the "naked" odds on baccarat are better.
Typical blackjack players face house edge of around 3.5%.
(I have heard there are some Video Poker games that have slight negative house edge for perfectly executed play, but don't find that game interesting enough to find them.)
This is the advice:
Some may object that this gives weak players a chance to draw out on you (to beat you against the odds) because you let them stay in. I reply that it is a question of how *much* you win when you win that makes you successful, not how many *times* you win.
Hold'em is a slightly different story if there are ten people at the table, but the basic concept applies.
Yes, bet your premium hands. Just don't necessarily give away your hand strength by doing so. If you can let the other guy do the raising when you have him beat by long odds, you will make more profit more often.
Conversely, if you are sitting in a Hold'em game in late position and you are thinking about limping in (entering the hand for the minimum bet) with an A-10 offsuit, think about raising the pot instead (doubling the amount of money in the pot). The fewer people in that hand, the more likely you are to win it.
This simple advice has helped make me a winning player for a long time now.
WWJD? JWRTFA!
As the submitter mentions, poker (especially limit and no-limit hold'em) is a fantastic combination of skills including your ability to read people and math skills (especially your ability to calculate odds on the fly). It truly is a geek game, with many of the game's top players holding advanced degrees in mathematics, statistics, etc.
In fact, I'll be in Vegas starting this weekend to buy in to one of the $1500 tournaments which make up the World Series. Of course I have very little chance of winning, but I figured it was time to roll up a stake, head to vegas and take my shot!
Not a lot of people know there are 33 separate games making up the World Series, not just the grand $10k buy-in No Limit game you see televised on ESPN/etc. Speaking of which, with all the talk about it, it would have been nice for the submitter to include a link to the official WSOP website.
Required poker reading for those interested in getting dealt in:
CardPlayer.com. Poker news, tips and discussions. One of the best of the best. Includes a really good online odds calculator you can use to double check your own math :)
TwoPlusTwo.com. Website run by some of the smartest guys in gambling, David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth. Sklansky has an excellent series of highly-technical poker books for every skill level, including Hold 'Em Poker, Hold'Em Poker for Advanced Players, Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, and The Theory of Poker.
Doyle Brunson's Super System. Regarded by many as the bible on poker. Much of the information is outdated about specific games (the nature of the game has changed) but any respectable poker player knows this book.
PhilHellmuth.com. Phil is a poker geek himself, one of the best players around (and the youngest to win the world championship). His recent book on poker Play Poker Like the Pros is the best "intermediate" book around in my opinion.
PokerPages.com. Best place to find a game, be it a tournament or local game. Great source of poker news.
There are also a great number of high quality poker blogs, including PokerBlog.com, GuinessAndPoker.com and ChrisHalverson.com.
Not to mention of course, the explosion of online poker sites, including UltimateBet.com,
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There is no try at jedinite.com
Disclaimer -- the only form of Poker I play is Texas Hold'em, Low-Mid Limit and occasionally No Limit tournaments. I can't speak on the other variations of the game and, no, I don't work for or with any of the sources that I am citing.
For starters, Hold'em, like any form of Gambling for real money, isn't for everyone. Gambling is called Gambling for a reason, otherwise they'd call it Savings. But if you're looking at getting into it, here is some food for thought:
From a geek standpoint, I think one of the appeals that Hold'em Poker has is that it isn't so much a game a chance as it is more of a game of incomplete information. The very essence of living a geeked out existance is marinated in the ability to thrive in environments of incomplete information, whether solving problems or creating solutions. Out of those who consider themselves geeks, I'd have to say that those who are Hackers (whether in the genuine sense or cracking into computer/network/phone systems) would probably tend to have a little more of an edge than most. Aside from the logic and reasoning involved in playing the game, there's a certain instinct that develops, very similar to that certain "something" that enables some people the uncanny ability to take a look at a system, see what isn't obvious and find ways to make that system do things it wasn't originally designed to do. Anyone applying the Hacker Mentality to learning and playing the game will probably find that it won't take long for them to become formidable opponents.
Another way to look at the game is that essentially you're putting together a puzzle, racing to put yours together first, and betting that you can put together a better puzzle than everyone else -- all done by assembling the information between the hole cards that you're dealt, the cards that are flopped, the final cards that hit the table, and the patterns of betting/raising/folding around the table. You're not only competing with others at the table but you're also competing with yourself since there are times when you'll have to fold on seemingly great hands because playing them through to the end of a round will only mean getting beat and throwing your money away. Outside of just plain old bad luck, when it comes to most people losing big at Hold'em, generally you can boil it down to either (1) the know the basic rules but being clueless about the game's dynamics, (2) playing with a lack of discipline, and/or (3) letting their egos dictate the way they play their cards instead of doing what the cards and the dynamics of the table during that particular round says they should do. I'm no expert but this is something I've observed way too often. I've competed in some small stakes Hold'em tournaments locally and walked away with the top prize several times. In each case the people that were easiest to knock out of the game succumbed to any one of those three, usually all of them by the time I was scooping up the last of their chips.
The two foremost authors I've read on the subject are Sklansky and Malmuth. Between these three books -- The Theory of Poker by David Sklansky (ISBN: 1-880685-00-0), Hold'em Poker by David Sklansky (ISBN: 1-880685-08-6), and Hold'em for Advanced Players by David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth (ISBN: 1-880685-22-9) -- alot of patience, and alot of practice with both online poker play (start with play money) and stand-alone versions of the game, it doesn't take long to advance beyond being one of the novices throwing their money away at a table and getting beat like a baby seal. The rest comes with time and experience.
Aside from those books, there are tons of sites out there on the subject. Here are a few that I found to be helpful during the learning processs:
http://www.twoplustwo.com/
http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/
http://www.holdemsecrets.com/
Als
+1 for every 10/j/q/k/a that is played
-1 for every 2,3,4,5,6
ignore 7-8-9
Divide the count by a guess as to the # of decks left in the shoe... and then
bet higher on higher counts, bet low on lower counts.
Yes, poker is a game for mathematically-oriented geeks. In fact, the game is undergoing a revolution, with the savvy young players overthrowing the old guard, because they simply have better tools in their toolbox. Understanding how the other player thinks is still absolutely essential to playing at the top level, but there are also many mathematical concepts (beyond simple probabilities) that are very important to poker strategy.
In the old days of the Internet (before AOL), the newsgroup rec.gambling.poker had an incredibly high signal to noise ratio. Good players shared their insights, and many of them went on to be major stars in the poker world. I was just down at the WSoP and met with several of them (old friends and new acquaintances, many world champions among them).
Television has suddenly made poker into a spectacle, and the growth in popularity has been spectacular. Online poker is also booming, with thousands of geeks fleecing the millions of players who have less knowledge about the game.
If you want to learn more about this great game, visit some of the links on the The University of Alberta Computer Poker Research Group home page. You will need to read a lot (especially the books by Sklansky and Malmuth), and practice a lot before you become a good player.
One good tool for providing endless hours of practice is the commercial version of our research programs, Poki's Poker Academy.
Now is a great time to have fun and augment your income playing poker.
- Darse.
( hey look moderators! it's the actual guy! :)
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