Dvorak On The Future Of The Xbox

Thanks to PC Magazine for its John Dvorak-authored editorial discussing his view of the present and future for Microsoft's Xbox game console. Dvorak rages: "Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail, leaving the Xbox in the dustbin with the last great American hope for a super game machine, the 3DO box from circa 1993", before continuing: "I think it can be argued that high-expectation syndrome was partially responsible for the deaths of both the 3DO machine and Sega. It definitely plays into the Xbox story... Compare this rollout to the original Sony PlayStation 1's debut... it just kind of appeared and worked its way to the top by attrition." He ends by musing: "Keeping the Xbox alive is important to Microsoft. Its pride and prestige are at stake... We will see an Xbox II. Whether it fulfills Microsoft's dream or becomes a collector's item remains to be seen."

Comments

Re:Amazing..

[prockcore]

I do a little work in the 'industry'.

Suuuure you do.

Dvorak is the most pro-MS journalist around. He has lunches with Bill Gates. For him to say the xbox is a disaster is pretty suprising.

A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

the company has not been able to get worldwide sales, especially Japanese sales [..] but it still has not been popular enough to become a profit center for Microsoft.

I never remember Microsoft stating that they intended to make a profit on the first Xbox. It was their introduction to the market - and for a debut product they've done remarkably well. They've done better than Sega and (arguably) better than Nintendo.

The product itself is rather good for a first effort (controller slip-ups excepted). It's definitely the platform with the most longitivity due to the superior hardware specifications.

All this has recently been compounded by Microsoft's decision to cancel or delay the release of its online game True Fantasy Live Online.

A game company cancelling a game is not a big deal in the industry. Heck, I've worked in the games industry for 6 years - and been working on 2 titles when they were killed in various stages of development. Cancelling a title isn't a death-blow to a company as large as Microsoft.

Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail

They're doing very, very well. Their main competitor is Sony. Sony is not going to take competition sitting down and has been fighting just as dirty as Microsoft, especially on their home turf in Japan. Microsoft has made impressive headway - done well in the US and Europe, but absolutely slaughtered the competition in some markets like Australia.

It's not like Sony hasn't made some mistakes - the PSX (Playstation 2 media center) pre-emptive strike against a possible Xbox 2 based "Media Center" was a disaster for Sony. There's no reason at all to doubt Microsoft's future in the console market.

The 3DO machine was the first 32-bit console; there were great games for it and it had powerful underpinnings. Its $700 price tag was probably the main thing that killed it, but it also suffered from the same problem that the Microsoft Xbox has suffered from: high-expectation syndrome.

Huh? 3DO comparisons aren't valid. 3DO was DOA because it wasn't marketed towards kids (who couldn't afford it), adult gamers weren't interested because there were no games (and Sony hadn't yet created the adult gaming market) - AND the 3DO didn't live up to the hype. But by all accounts from a consumer and developer perspective, the Xbox hit all expectations placed on it. I certainly have no regrets about my purchase, or about developing for it. I've played some great games, have some great games, had 2 titles published - and there are a number of games that I'm looking forward to.

I had experts come on my radio show and tell me flat-out that the Xbox would become the number-one gaming console, with Sony number two and Sega and Nintendo probably dropping out. [..] The relative lack of hot games reinforced the negative attitude, as did the promises that many of the hot games on the Sony platform would be "ported"--and when they were ported, they'd somehow be better. Some were marginally better, but not enough to change anything.

So somebody in marketing exaggerated a product's claims to a member of the mainstream media. Yawn. Really, were you born yesterday? Calling yourself a "journalist" would be some sort of exaggeration, but I don't blame you for trying.

However, you seem to forget that there weren't many good games when the Playstation 1 launched either. Sure, there was "Wipeout", but the PC version (or "port" as you seem to think that's a dirty word) looked much better. The killer Playstation 1 game, "Metal Gear Solid" began development when the machine was being designed. According to lore, they had a prototype running when the hardware was only at 30% of it's final speed. It was *several years* after the launch of the PS1 until that game eventually came out.

And it's the same situation on the Xbox - only last year and this

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[king-manic]

It's definitely the platform with the most longitivity due to the superior hardware specifications.

Umm.. look up the definition of longevity. Their technical spechs are pretty independant of longevity. The gameboy has longevity. It has some pretty poor specs. The PS1 had longevity the hardware was pretty baseline, the Dreamcast had technological supuriority and no longevity.

the fact remains, they haven't done nearly as well as they hoped. Have failed everywhere except America.

Nowm I'm not a fanboy. I have all 3. And a gameboy SP and a PC that can run all modern games. Thats just the facts. Xbox is nice technically, but did rather poorly in comparison to it's expectations.

Re:A point by point rebuttal.

[Anonymous Coward]

You make some fair points as well as some unfounded ones. I won't focus on everything.

Sony is not going to take competition sitting down and has been fighting just as dirty as Microsoft, especially on their home turf in Japan.

To continue the line of thinking mentioned by another AC in this thread that may or may not be you, I'd like to request that you provide proof of both Sony's and Microsoft's domestic dirty fighting (Sony in Japan, MS here). Although I don't doubt that they exist, I want examples and URLs from YOU.

Gah.. choke.. (cough)Xerox(cough). SHUT THE FUCK UP. This largely baseless accusation's been thrown about so much that I'm not going to respond to it.. besides saying: Mac OS 10 is based on the BSD operating system. (sarcasm) You weren't very "Innovative" there, were you Apple? (/sarcasm).

The fact that the OSes borrow elements from each other at all levels is well known.

Some quickies:

• The Lisa OS and the Mac OS were both based on licensed Xerox designs. Yep, Apple paid for them and built on them.
• Windows has (on more occasions than the reverse) copied elements from Mac OS when suitable substitutes did not already exist. Recycle Bin, anyone? If there is any legacy that traces from Xerox to Microsoft, that line traces through Apple first.
• Apple is not immune to implementing good features from other OSes (fast user switching).
• Neither are the open source folks. (KDE and Gnome wouldn't exist without Windows.)
• The BSD license is quite liberal (to put it mildly). BSD code pervades the majority of the world's desktop operating systems, including Windows, and there's nothing immoral or legally improper about it, assuming the terms of the license are met (basically, credit BSD).

These are not baseless accusations, they are established facts. Microsoft's lack of creativity when it comes to many products that they produce is also well known, but I agree that it's ridiculous for Dvorak to be mentioning Mac OS when talking about Xbox.

And let me get this straight - you're complaining that the game wasn't original, that they probably didn't have their hearts in it - and that they cancelled it. So what's your problem? They probably made the correct decision.

Perhaps his point is that the lack of focus (heart) was a big reason TFLO failed to make it to market. By pointing out the game name's similarity to FF, perhaps he meant to imply that TFLO's focus was never about being an original game in the first place - which would jive with what MS and L5 have both stated about it.

Dvorak's an intellectual infant, but you know the popular saying about what sometimes comes "out of the mouths of babes."

You're being critical for them taking action - but you'd also be critical if the game was still in development. You obviously can't be made happy about anything.

I hope you are never in the position of consoling the family of a heroin addict who's commited suicide. X_X

For all we know, Dvorak was hyped about the game until he'd heard how poorly it was coming along. Eh, maybe not. :)

Microsoft is here to stay.

Sure they are, and so is the Xbox. I'm curious whether its successor will follow in Xbox's paper tiger loss-leading strategy, or if it will turn around and actually become economically viable like Xbox's competitors.

Except that Nintendo will be competing against Sony for the next generation of handhelds, possibly distracting Sony from it's battle with Microsoft.

This is the kind of idealistic, serial mislogic that gives fanboys their reputation. No offense, but really.

Dvorak is essentially right that Microsoft would be better off if Nintendo magi

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[Claire-plus-plus]

XBOX sells so badly in Australia that they have continuing to drop the price even though Sony seem to have refused to play the price-war game this time.

Re:Xbox isn't dying

[xx404]

I'd like to see your figures backing this up. The last issue of OXM claimed that Xbox outsold PS2 last month. I also remember early on after it's launch that Microsoft said that Australia had the highest Xbox ownership per capita in the world. Both consoles sell for around the same price and Xboxen seem to be selling better than PS2 in cashies - people are trading their PS2 in to get an Xbox. GameCube is unfortunately not very popular here, but then I haven't bought one yet either...

Here's a different way to look at it...

[LordPixie]

And considering how much money Microsoft is losing now, I don't think Microsoft will wait 12 years and will almost certainly give up before then.

I'd like to draw your attention to this Cringely article. It's a (long) opinion piece on MS' business model. Two points are made about the way MS works: 1) MS has incentives to increase losses. Yeah, you read that correctly. Without losses to balance off their massive growth in the Office/Windows department, they'd plateau and go nowhere. 2) Microsoft has basically saturated the PC market, and sucked as much profit as humanly possible from computer sales. Thus, they have to move into new markets.

Keeping the top two points in mind, the X-Box seems to be doing a perfect job of what MS wants. Now, I certainly don't expect you to whole-heartedly agree with the above article, but do at least read it...


--LordPixie

xbox gets more us in my house than ps2

[Anonymous Coward]

Dvorak, you can't be serious... he's kidding right... just trolling?

The xbox is alive and doing quite well... It's also quite superior to the ps2 in many ways. Anti-aliasing, high def support (beyond 480p), xbox live, games load quicker, look better and it's now pretty dang cheap. personally, I have even come to prefer the new s-controller over the PS2 controller, but maybe that's cause I'm playing the xbox so much.

Re:Amazing..

[gamgee5273]

The work you do must be amazingly little if you don't know who he is or what company's platform he tends to support...

I'll give you a hint: they're located in Redmond, WA and it isn't Nintendo of America.

Re:what?

[Pluvius]

Don't you think it's a little stupid to draw lines in general? It's natural to favor one flavor of things over another, but it's the lowest form of human behavior to start arguments and wars over it.

Yeah, God forbid we actually try to understand through argument why others have the opinions and beliefs that they do. Far better to assume that everyone is exactly the same, holding hands and singing songs under a bright rainbow.

To sum it up: who the fuck cares?

Who the fuck cares about anything on the Internet? Why are you even posting to Slashdot?

It seems the only way to escape such an immature stereotype is to either own all three current systems, or none at all.

Actually, the way to not be a fanboy is to realize that your game developers of choice are not the end-all and be-all of gaming, that not everything that they touch turns into gold, and that their competitors are not complete trash. It's really not that hard.

You should be siding with consumers in general, and not You should be siding with consumers in general, and not voluntarily giving more power to an already overwhelming and controlling entity.

Funny; I thought that being a fanboy was "voluntarily giving more power to an already overwhelming and controlling entity."

Rob

Re:Come on, this is Dvorak.

[Ron Atkinson]

And if anyone remembers back I believe sometime around the mid 90's Dvorak wrote an article in Infoworld about his trip to Comdex in Japan and all the great products he saw there. The problem is that Comdex show never existed since it was cancelled at the last minute.

Many people in the computer industry distrust John Dvorak ever since this incident. He had also been caught writing product reviews on products that he has never used. The articles were based only what he read from other articles, manuals and press releases.

This guy lost credibility years ago and is nothing buy a bullshit artist...