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Dvorak On The Future Of The Xbox
Thanks to PC Magazine for its John Dvorak-authored editorial discussing his view of the present and future for Microsoft's Xbox game console. Dvorak rages: "Microsoft has over $56 billion in the bank and should be dominating the console market. Unfortunately, the company's overall strategies have failed and may continue to fail, leaving the Xbox in the dustbin with the last great American hope for a super game machine, the 3DO box from circa 1993", before continuing: "I think it can be argued that high-expectation syndrome was partially responsible for the deaths of both the 3DO machine and Sega. It definitely plays into the Xbox story... Compare this rollout to the original Sony PlayStation 1's debut... it just kind of appeared and worked its way to the top by attrition." He ends by musing: "Keeping the Xbox alive is important to Microsoft. Its pride and prestige are at stake... We will see an Xbox II. Whether it fulfills Microsoft's dream or becomes a collector's item remains to be seen."
First up, the article stated PS2 risked being outsold in the US market. Not that it was being outsold. Sales figures for consoles are notoriously difficult to get, and for every Analyst quoting one set of figures that they "predicted" another analyst will predict something wildly different.
Secondly, irrespective of Microsofts domestic market advantage, the xbox sells poorly in Europe and Japan compared to the PS2. Hell it probably sells poorly compared to the GC in Japan.
Actually, if memory serves, XBox is currently being outsold by the Bandai Wonderswan and the PS1 in Japan currently. MS Game Studios in Japan is doing a lot of work to create games for that market. Hopefully, we'll see the numbers pick up in Japan before too long. I doubt XBox will outsell the GCN in Japan at any point, but it should at least be the 3rd most popular console. Also, as far as the ENU market is concerned, the fall/holiday game lineup for XBox is strong enough that Sony really should have some concerns. Fable, Halo 2, Sudeki, EA games for XBL, blah blah blah. You get the idea.
iRooster, the Mac OS X a
MS Game Studios in Japan is doing a lot of work to create games for that market.
... Wait a minute...
Yeah, like True Fantasy Live Online, for example.
3DO has these great games... Need for speed Road rash wing commander 3 Star control 2 Gex Slam n Jam Space Hulk Return Fire Twisted Battle Sport Sword n sorcery etc.. A number of titles sold hundreds of thousands each far from DOA. How much was the the PSX when it first came out? 3DO problem was a it's fragmented structure a reliance on 3rd party support. By the time the 3DO company started shipping games it was 2 years after the debut.
This is correct... However, MS told shareholders that they would lose only around $900 million by the end of the first 5 years. Not even three years into the lifecycle of the console, and the Xbox has been the main cause of the Home and Entertainment Division losing over $2.3 billion since the launch of the Xbox. The Xbox is the reason that that division is now losing over $200 million per quarter, with no end to the losses in sight.
Every price drop, game bundle, or Live bundle they put out accross the world loses them more money per console... and the game sales haven't really been there to make up for the loss on the hardware, like what was expected. In fact, MS hasn't had, to the best of my knowledge, a million plus selling game worldwide since the original Splinter Cell, which was only the 4th title on the machine to break the million unit sales.
Ummm... You do realize that they are different Dvorak's, right?
What color is the sky in Dvorak's world? The Xbox is outselling the Playstation 2. Xbox parties have quickly replaced LAN parties, and the fact that you can mod the hell out of it has almost turned soldering into a fad. The only place I can see the Xbox as hurting Microsoft is that PC gaming may suffer as a result. But what does Microsoft care if they already control most of the PC world through Windows anyway? If anything, the Xbox is increasing Microsoft's stronghold in the home.
This is a fairly recent developement, it's happening in only one market, and it's not representative of XBOX success but instead of Playstations market saturation. GC is #2 world wide. #3 in America. Xbox is #2 in America #4 or #5 in many other places. MArket penetration wise, Xbox is about as far in as GC in America. their totals aren't too far off. As for games sold, xbox does have some tantalizing exclusives but they sell less games then sony.
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
5 letter mmorpg. It's been Sony's PC cash cow of ra while and as of yet PC mmorpg never get to the same level. It's a niche market but MMORPG is a very very profitabel niche.
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
You might be thinking about the Quadra AV systems, with a DSP that ran the video and audio codecs. I don't really think that counts as a "dual processor" machine. After all...my modem has a processor on it.
You might also be thinking about the DOS compatibility card, which was basically a teeny 486 computer on a PDS card. That, however, was almost totally separate from the Mac architecture (although it shared the network card, and you could share the clipboard between the Mac and PC, which was extremely nifty).
Anyhow, there you have it.
Why yes, I AM a rocket scientist!
Just be cause you don't believe it to be true, doesn't meant that the loss is false.
Here's a story talking about MSFT's December Quarter of 2003. It talks about how they lost $394 million in that quarter. Here's another story discussing how they lost $273 million the quarter before that. Both of these stories were easy to find and based on MSFT's reports to the SEC.
I always thought it was common knowledge that the XBox department was burning money like it was going out of style. Guess I was wrong.
Also, the PS2 has, essentially, a PS1 onboard, which handles PS1 games and controller input. For game systems with five year discrete lifespans, it's maybe cheaper to just include the old hardware, which costs pennies by that point, than to write and support a software emu.
Dude, I think I can see my house from here.