Traffic Sim Predicts Jams Before They Happen

Via_Patrino writes "The New Scientist reports that: A traffic simulation system is helping drivers by predicting jams up to an hour before they happen. Traffic flow can be divided into three categories: freely flowing, jammed, and an intermediate state called synchronised flow in which dense traffic moves in unison. Physicists at University of Duisburg-Essen have developed 'the first model to reproduce all known traffic states.' Predicted conditions are displayed on the official website, and more than 90 per cent of the time, traffic density is predicted correctly."

Comments

What happens next...

[lewko]

But the website has already become a victim of its own success, admits Schreckenberg. Some of the 300,000 people a day who are visiting the site are replanning their journeys on the basis of its forecasts, and this is beginning to make the forecasts themselves less accurate. And soon it could get even worse when the website becomes available on 3G cellphones.

...and the system fails to take into account for drivers futzing with their cellphone instead of concentrating on the rear of the car in front of them..... Crunch!

Re:What if people start using it?

[mphase]

Good point. It only applies if a large portion of the potential traffic was aware of the prediction but still a good point. It's not a matter of being a right or wrong prediciton though, it's a matter or decreasing traffic. If it makes it so people get stuck in traffic less than it is a success. The statistic of being "right" or "wrong" in its prediciton is pointless. Though obviously if every damn person was aware of it the predicted traffic would become the perfect driving conditions because everyone would avoid that area. So then people would start to purposefuly drive in the areas the system said would have heavy traffic, knowing that everyone else would avoid it. But then because so many people did that there would be traffic and so people would learn to avoid the areas...repeat until you come to the topic of a land war in China.

so what your telling me is

[Anonymous Coward]

So what your telling me is, the traffic jam sim is a jedi? And he can see jams before they happen.

And I guess he has an evil father right? "Luke, I can feel the road rage in you, you must let is out"

And I guess news stories about traffic jams have to use lucas/powerpoint diagonal slides instead of hard cuts?

And Han Solo is the guy in the riced up car that speeds? Chewie likes "phat bass beats" in his WQRX p27983tyXX extreme ear-bleed SUB WOOFER SYSTEM.

And I guess there will be massive traffic jam merchandising? Possibly even a prequel traffic jam series with JAR JAR BINKS who is the pedestrian who always presses the walk button even when he has no intention of crossing the street?

And all the people who were caught in the traffic jams ages ago are like "this traffic jam sucks compared to the originals".

Anyway, enough of this, may the green lights be with you.

Here's the algorithm they use:

[phandel]

I believe the algorithm was leaked a few days ago:

if ((time == 8am-ish) || (time == 5pm-ish))
double jam =1; // double jam sandwich

if (city == LA)
long long jam = 2^64;

Re:What if people start using it?

[NanoGator]

"What if people start using it? They avoid the traffic jams, thus no traffic jams. Wrong prediction!"

Oh the horror.

Wonder if they will predict...

[SalsaDot]

...the slashdot effect on their site

oops, different flavour of jam

Re:This is one of my pet peaves

[transient]

I do this in my stick-shift too, though not on the freeway (I live in a small town). There's a leg on my drive home that's always backed up at a stop sign -- stop n' go like nothing else. If I shift into first and let the engine idle, I catch up to the car in front of me right as it starts accelerating. It makes people behind me crazy and I can't understand why.

I guess it's just more evidence of the superiority of stick-shift drivers. ;-)

Re:GPL IT PLZ

[boaworm]

Here is the source code:

#!/usr/bin/perl -w

$now = `date +%H`;

if($now == 7 || $now == 8 || $now == 16 || $now = 17){
## Genius part!!
die "Rush hour, take another route!\n";
}else{
die "Roads are clear!\n";
}

## Please note, code is not optimized yet, but it's 90% accurate!

Re:Hooks law

[value_added]

"The compression waves travelling through the traffic are the reason that everything goes stop/start once traffic slows below a certain speed..."

Interesting. I think I'll make it into a bumper sticker.

Check back in a few days and I'll let you know how effective it is calming down the idiot honking his horn behing me. ;-)

Re:What is the cause?

[s.fontinalis]

On American Motorways the probability of a vehicle breaking down in the traffic lanes is directly proportional to the nearness of a major holiday, as is the ability of the driver to shift the vehicle from the travel lanes.

Re:Rubbernecker screen

[LordLucless]

So your idea is to put something designed to get people to look at it on something designed to stop people looking. I'd patent that one real quick!